Bonds & Interest Rates

The Global War on Cash

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All around the world, lawmakers are making an urgent push to eliminate the use of physical cash.

It’s not only the recent demonetization in India – it’s also the Western nations that want to eliminate big denomination bills, including the U.S. and Europe.

See who declared war – and who is going to get caught in the crossfire – in today’s “can’t miss” infographic for The Money Project.

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….also from Martin Armstrong:

The War on Cash – One Giant Leap Forward For Government

Martin Armstrong: Stock Market Bubble Still to Come

Well-known market forecaster Martin Armstrong at ArmstrongEconomics.com joins us today to discuss his thoughts on a wide range of topics, including his current forecasts on stocks, bonds, why he doesn’t think the market is in a bubble yet, the attempt by governments to ban cash around the globe, and much, much more.

…also from Martin:

What About Collectibles?

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Canadian home sales surge in December, but market troubles imminent

canadahousingrealtorrealestateSales of homes across Canada rallied by 2.2 per cent month-over-month in December after November transactions suffered some weakness in the wake of stricter mortgage rules, according to a new report from the Canadian Real Estate Association.
 
Home prices also went up by 3.5 per cent year-over-year in the same month, up to $470,661.

….read more HERE

 

…related from Ozzie Jurock: 

Real Estate Forecast 2017

BIG MOVEMENT AHEAD IN THE SILVER MARKET… Serious Trouble In The Paper Markets

The Silver Market will experience a significant trend change in the future due the unraveling of the paper markets.  Already we are witnessing a lot of political turmoil and havoc as President-elect Donald Trump gets ready to take over the White House in the next few days.

It’s also logical to assume the policy changes President-elect Trump wants to make will cause serious ramifications to the highly leveraged debt-based fiat monetary system… whether he realizes it or not.

Craig over at TFMetalsReport.com recently interviewed Paul Myclhresstabout the huge problem the Chinese government is dealing with as they liquidate Dollars to prop up their banking and economic system.  I highly recommend listening to that interview if you haven’t.

Thus, the continued liquidation of U.S. Dollar Reserves by China and other countries is probably the reason for the ongoing decline in International Reserves covered in Hugo Salinas Price’s newest article, The Further Decline In International Reserves:

PLATA-International-Reserves-JAN-13-2017

Over the past 29 months, the decline in Reserves took place at a rate of about $42 billion dollars a month. At this rate, by the end of 2017 International Reserves will likely decline by another $504 billion dollars, to $10.31 Trillion, which will increase the decline from the peak in 2014 to 14.31%.

As we can see from Hugo’s chart above, countries continue to liquidate their official reserves (mostly U.S. Dollar reserves) to prop up their financial and economic systems.  This is a very BAD SIGN… likely to get much worse in the future.

The Silver Market Will Experience A Huge Trend Change In The Future

The Global Silver Market will experience a huge trend change in the future, thus impacting the price in a BIG WAY.  The are two critical reasons why this will occur:

  1. Cracks In the Highly Leveraged Debt Based Fiat Monetary System will force investors into purchasing silver to protect wealth
  2. The 17 consecutive years of annual silver deficits totaling 1.8 billion oz, suggests the easy to acquire silver is now in tight hands.  Which means, when investors finally start to rush into silver, there will be very little available to be purchased, only at much higher prices

Let’s take a look at the Global Silver Market annual net balances from 1975 to 2016:

Let me explain this chart as it contains some interesting trend changes.  First, the majority of annual net surpluses occurred from 1975-1987.  This was after the U.S. and British Govt’s colluded to start the Gold & Silver Futures trading markets, which funneled investors funds into paper precious metals rather than physical.

You can read more details on this in my article, PRECIOUS METALS INVESTORS: Are You Ready For The Great Financial Enema.

This was also the same time when governments and big investors were dumping old silver coins onto the market that were no longer being used as currency.  You will notice that in 1978 the net silver surplus was very low.  This was due to the huge demand by investors as the price of silver skyrocketed.  However, as the silver price was capped by the “Financial Doctors” at the Fed and CME Group in 1980, many investors dumped silver back into the market.

According to GFMS’s data, there was a 306 million oz (Moz) surplus of silver that year.  And, as the silver price continued to decline in the 1980’s, more silver was dumped into the market, especially in 1983 (140 Moz) and 1984 (149 Moz).

I don’t want to get into too much detail from years 1987-1999, but annual net surpluses continued as governments such as China, Russia and India sold official silver stocks into the market.  But, this all changed in 2000 when the Global Silver Market started to experience net deficits.

And… since 2000, the Global Silver Market has experienced 17 consecutive years of net silver deficits.  According to GFMS and the Silver Institute, the world will suffer another 185.5 Moz net deficit in 2016.

So, how can the Global Silver Market suffer 17 years worth of consecutive silver deficits?  Well, because there was over 2 billion oz of silver surpluses (1975-1999)  put away for a rainy day:

Of course these figures are best estimates and do come from an official source that may have the motivation to under-report the real situation, but we can clearly see that a lot of silver has moved out of the market and is now likely be held by extremely tight hands.

While the market is nothing more than one huge “Intervention”, these official figures reporting 17 years of consecutive net silver deficits means the silver market is poised for something extremely big.  And, I am not saying that just because I am a silver investor.  The PROOF is right in front of us.   No need to hype something that is totally making the CASE for us.

The Gold & Silver Paper Markets Are In Serious Trouble

While many precious metals investors believe that market intervention and manipulation can continue indefinitely, we are already witnessing the collapse of International Reserves.  Furthermore, if President-elect Trump is allowed to run the White House for a while, we are going to see serious financial dislocations due to trade wars and increased U.S. inflationary pressures.

In addition, GFMS and the Silver Institute forecast continued net annual silver deficits for the next several years (at least) as global silver production declines while demand continues to be strong.  This will be just more FUEL for the SILVER MARKET FIRE ahead.

Again, this is not hype.  What I am explaining here is the same setup as those characters portrayed in the movie the BIG SHORT, who were betting against the disaster called the Mortgage-Backed Securities industry.  They knew it was a huge house of cards ready to implode… it was just a matter of time.

While the gold market will likely experience a huge run, I believe silver will outperform gold many times over.  This is due to the fact that there is about the same amount of invest-able silver in the world as there is gold:

According to the best sources I could come across, there is about 2.2 billion oz of investment gold and 2.5 billion oz of investment silver in the world today.  Of course, there is likely more physical gold and silver we don’t know about, but it will not change the ratio all that much.

That being said, just a doubling of physical gold and silver demand will put a lot more pressure on the silver price than gold as big traders and hedge funds jump aboard for larger percentage gains.

As we begin to see fireworks going off in the United States as President-elect Trump stirs up the pot, 2017 will likely be the year things really start to fall apart.

If you haven’t read my article, PRECIOUS METALS INVESTORS: Are You Prepared For The Great Financial Enema, I provide more clues of the situation ahead. 

Gold update and more …

Last week I told you about gold’s long-term prospects: $5,000 at least.

And if you’ve been following my shorter-term forecasts for gold, then you know that they’ve been spot on. I’ve been calling for an extended short-term cycle low — which we got on December 15 at $1,124.30 in the February 2017 futures contract — and then a rally.

That rally is now underway, and this past Friday gold hit as high as $1,207.20.

Here was my previous AI Neural Net forecast for gold, then I’ll show you an update:

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You can see the rally through January 12 on this chart. You can also see how the rally should stair-step higher in mid-April before a mild pullback sets in.

How high can gold go by then? Not a whole lot higher. Maybe $1,350 to $1,400.

Now, here’s my latest AI chart for gold: The shape is changing a bit, as it should be, but the overall forecast remains the same: A rally in April before pulling back. Note that this chart is a tad behind the action, since my live forecasts and AI charts are reserved for members of my paying services.

 

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So what’s causing the rally? In gold, and other precious metals? Pick your flavor …

I won’t cover them in detail here, again, that’s for members. But look around the world …

 Still nasty politics in the U.S.

 The rising tide of my war cycles, which I have warned you about repeatedly, even telling you they were due for another accelerated rise right now. And look, we have …

 Trump/Putin still wrangling.

 4,000 American troops just sent to Poland, the biggest buildup in Eastern Europe since the Cold War.

 Syria, Aleppo, Mosul and more.

 High tensions between the U.S. and China over the “One-China policy” and Taiwan. And the South China Sea.

 The horrendous humanitarian/refugee crisis in Europe, where men, women and children are dying.

 And more.

Is it any surprise there are plenty of fundamentals building to drive precious metals higher? Have they bottomed? It’s too soon to say but I like the action.

What about other markets, for instance equities, the Dow Industrials? The Dow is getting ready to roll over.

You can see it right here, on my latest AI chart for the Dow. It should be rolling over and should head lower into late March before bottoming.


 
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Just a pullback. No crashes. Support at 17,500 to 18,500.

That may seem like a steep decline, even to 18,500, and it is worth getting out if you are heavily invested, or hedging with an inverse ETF.

But it’s not the disaster many are calling for. Once it bottoms, the capital flight into the U.S. will resume in spades and the Dow will be off to 25,000, then even higher, to at least 32,000.

Stay tuned, very tuned in to my writings and analysis of the gold market. In fact, of all major markets. Plus, as I noted last week, be sure to read my E-wave columns each Monday, Wednesday and Friday afternoon published around 4 p.m. EST. They are short, but very inciteful.

Best wishes,

Larry

It’s so important that you get your free copy of “STOCK MARKET TSUNAMI” right away, click here to download now!

…related from Frank Holmes with 5 charts:

The bullish case for gold in 2017