Timing & trends

When The Dust Settles

Dust-SettlesThe Euro soared to 113 and then crashed and burned to the 109 level. The Dow exceeded yesterday’s high but has not penetrated the previous day’s low. Gold had its reaction up to 1340 and fell back under 1300. Let’s get this much straight. Our computer is NOT showing a major change in trend because of the election. We have warned this is not the case and at the end of the day, fundamentally, Trump will be far more bullish for the US economy that war and more taxes from Hillary.

This is more of a Reagan Moment. Ronald Reagan was the outsider every and the “establishment” in Washington resisted him. This will play-out the same. So let everything calm down. There appears to be no major change in trend at hand. If Trump gets the 15% corporate tax rate in, then look for the dollar to soar and almost $3 trillion come homes.

Trump and Gold

It was an event-filled and turbulent evening last night as the results for the 45th US presidential election rolled in, signalling that the majority of the American electorate had voted for Republican candidate Donald Trump. Trump received over 270 of the 538 electoral college votes needed to secure a majority. Trump will now be inaugurated as US President on Friday January 20, 2017.

Media and Polls eat Humble Pie

This, the 58th US presidential election, will no doubt go down in history as one of the most unusual, divisive and wrongly predicted US presidential elections of all time. The official surveys of the expected outcome were proven to be way off the mark, and in fact the entire US polling industry may have to reassess its methodologies and enter a period of self-reflection. The mainstream media machine, particularly but not exclusively in the US, was also shown up throughout this election campaign to be glaringly slanted and in favor of the Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton at the expense of Trump, and a large amount of shock, back-peddling and embarrassment seems to have hit that section of the media today, in a 2017 version of ‘Dewey defeats Truman’.

The media and survey driven, but shockingly wrong, consensus of an assured Clinton victory, which was relentlessly pitched over the last few months, also seems to have been priced into the financial markets, which is arguably why the actual outcome of a Trump victory caused acute volatility and large moves across the markets last night and into today.

Market Volatility

US stock market index futures all fell sharply during trading in US evening hours last night as the prospects of a trump victory began to crystallize. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures both went limit down in trading, each losing about 5%, and Dow equity index futures at one stage was 800 points lower. Asian market equities were also weaker, and the US Dollar weakening against most major currencies, and the Mexican Peso also plummeting.

The markets had a very Brexit feel to them, in a similar fashion to how the markets had reacted overnight between late Thursday June 23rd, the day the Brexit EU referendum was held in the UK, and early morning Friday June 24th, when it became clear that the referendum results pointed to a majority of voters wanted the UK to leave the European Union. In both these events, Brexit and a Trump win, financial market uncertainty has been a big factor.

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Florida and Ohio

Results from the battleground states of Florida, Ohio, and to a lesser extent North Carolina were decisive to Trump’s election and to the market’s moves. Florida, with 29 electoral votes, and the 3rd highest population by state at just over 20 million people, was called to Trump late on Tuesday night before 11pm. Ohio, with 18 electoral seats and 7th largest state population of 11.6 million people went to Trump at about 10:20pm. North Carolina, with 15 electoral seats and a 10 million population, was called for Trump just after 11pm NYT. Within the space of an hour, Trump had won the 3 key states of Florida, Ohio and North Carolina, which between then have 62 electoral college seats. By just after 1:30am, Pennsylvania was called to Trump, and following that Wisconsin. A trump majority in Iowa also helped. The rapidity of these results coming in also had a resonance with the Brexit results back in June.

Previously, the states of Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, had all majority voted for Obama on both occasions when he had been elected. This is why these particular state results going to Trump were a) critical for Trump and b) caused the volatile market reactions due to the markets’ perceptions that a Trump presidency will create more unknowns and greater uncertainty.

Precious metals prices, as would be expected, moved higher on the back of the market uncertainty and the Trump gains. Gold’s low in US Dollars was about $1270 at 8pm New York time (NYT), then it made a $50 ascent to a high of $1336 just after midnight NYT, an up move of 5.2%. See BullionStar gold chart for one day move. Silver in US Dollars moved up from $18.40 at about 8pm NYT to $19.02, an up-move of up 3.37%. Platinum also had a sizable up move, at one stage rising $20 from $1000 to $1020. These moves in precious metals prices were also reminiscent of similar moves on the morning of the Brexit results.

Trump and a Gold Standard

Beyond these short-term benefits to the gold price and the prices of other precious metals from a Trump victory, there are some other longer-term benefits to gold that a Donald trump presidency might create.

These longer term potential benefits to gold stem from Trump’s affinity for the use of a gold standard as part of the US monetary system. A gold standard, to define the term generally, is a monetary system that employs gold as a monetary unit, and links the economy’s currency to that monetary unit of gold. When used by a number of countries, each country’s currency can then be expressed in terms of gold, i.e. the exchange rates between the currencies are defined in terms of gold.

Donald Trump is known to be sympathetic to the concept of a gold standard, and even attracted to the prospect of implementing a gold standard as a way of maintaining the stability and value of the US Dollar. The first of Trump’s recent references to a gold standard came in a 2015 interview with WMUR-TV, New Hampshire, in a segment called ‘Conversation with the Candidate’, published on March 31, 2015, in which Trump commented on the gold standard in response to an audience question:

Question: “Can you envision a scenario that this country ever goes back to a gold standard?”

Trump: “In some ways, I like the gold standard and there is something very nice about it but you have to go back at the right time… We used to have a very solid country because it was based on a gold standard for it. We do not have that anymore. There is something very nice about the concept of that. It would be very hard to do at this point and one of the problems is we do not have the gold. Other places have the gold.”

The transcript of this interview can be read in an archived page of the WTAE-TV Pittsburgh website. See ‘web extra’ section. WTAE is a sister channel of WMUR.

It’s slightly odd that Trump thinks the US doesn’t have the gold, or maybe he knows something about Fort Knox and the US Treasury gold reserves that has not been made public.

Following his March 2015 comments, Trump again addressed the gold standard in November 2015 in a short video interview with GQ magazine when he said:

“Bringing back the gold standard would be very hard to do, but boy would it be wonderful. We’d have a standard on which to base our money.”

You can see the short GQ video interview with Trump on visiting this page.

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Some of Trump’s economic advisers also have notable views on gold, and the possible utilization of gold within the US currency system. In an interview with Forbes magazine in August this year, Dr. Judy Shelton, part of Trump’s economic advisory team, was asked on her view of a gold backed monetary system:

Forbes Question: “You’ve written before about going back to some sort of gold-based monetary system. Is that something the U.S. could do unilaterally, or would we need to convene other nations and get them on board?”

Shelton: “In terms of gold being involved [in the system], some people may think of that as a throwback, but I see it as a sophisticated, forward-looking approach because gold is neutral and it’s universal. 

It’s a well-accepted monetary surrogate that transcends borders and time. If you look at the foreign reserves of the most important countries, they keep them mostly in gold. I don’t want to read too much into it, but it proves that gold is not some barbarous relic.”

Shelton also referenced a Bretton Woods style conference:

“I’m not opposed to a new Bretton Woods conference, and if it takes place at Mar-a-Lago, I’m fine with that.”

Bretton Woods being the 1944 conference in New Hampshire at which the attendee countries planned the introduction of a gold backed system of fixed exchange rates, where the value of  the US Dollar was linked to gold and other participating currencies were linked to the Dollar. Mar-a-Lago is a hotel and club in palm Beach, Florida, owned by Trump.

John Paulson, the founder and head of the well-known and successful hedge fund company Paulson & Co Inc, is also an economic advisor to Trump. Paulson is known, among other things, for his fund’s investments in gold, and for example, Paulson & Co is currently the 5th largest institutional investor the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD). The appointment of Paulson to a position on Trump’s team could also arguably bolster Trump’s position on gold in the monetary system.

As an aside, in the WMUR-TV interview in March 2015, Donald Trump also expressed a view on auditing the Federal Reserve, a view that it will be interesting to see if he still holds during his Presidency. In another answer to a question from the audience, Trump agreed that the Fed should be audited:

Question: Let’s go back to our audience now coming from Bob. What is your question? …[Bob]:”My question is about Federal Reserve. What if any changes would you make to Federal Reserve and do you think they should be audited on a regular basis?”

Trump: “Audited, absolutely. I really think you can have it or not have it. A lot of people like it and a lot of conservative people like it. They think there is an adjustment with interest rates and other things. I’m not a fan. I’m not a big fan. Audit, 100%.”

Keynes, Greenspan and Bernanke

Any time the gold standard is mentioned, such as when Trump mentioned it on the occasions back in 2015, there are invariably sections of the financial media which wheel out the old misquote by the economist John Maynard Keynes, and state that Keynes said that gold is a barbarous relic. Even Shelton seems to have used the old misquote.

However, Keynes never said that gold was a barbarous relic. Keynes actually wrote the words “the gold standard is already a barbarous relic”, in chapter 4 of his 1924 book “A tract on Monetary Reform”, when specifically discussing whether Britain should return to a gold standard. Britain returned to a gold standard in 1925, against the advice of Keynes. The quote is at the bottom of page 172 of Keynes book “A tract on Monetary Reform”, (1923, this edition Published 1924), chapter 4, “Alternative aims in Monetary Policy”.

Arguably, Keynes was referring to the move after World War I by some countries to return to a gold standard (the inter-war gold standard), and even if he was talking about the classic gold standard (which ran from 1821 to 1914), Keynes just had a personal view that the gold standard was too constraining for what he saw as a “modern” economic system. But what Keynes was essentially advocating at that time, in other language, was a debasement of currency. Fast forward nearly 100 years and its obvious now that fiat currencies’ purchasing power has been heavily debased vis-a-vis the gold standard period.

Contemporary endorsements and appreciations for a gold standard are not actually the far out radical ideas that some might claim them to be and are not exclusive to Trump and his advisors. The concept of a gold standard is actually discussed by serious and mainstream monetary economists and even to an extent endorsed by them. In June this year, in an interview with Bloomberg in the aftermath of the UK’s Brexit results, Alan Greenspan, former Fed chairman had this to say about the gold standard:

“Now if we went back on the gold standard and we adhered to the actual structure of the gold standard as it exists let’s say, prior to 1913, we’d be fine. Remember that the period 1870 to 1913 was one of the most aggressive periods economically that we’ve had in the U.S., and that was a golden period of the gold standard.”

And in March 2004 in a speech ‘Money, Gold, and the Great Depression‘, even ex Federal Reserve chairman, Ben Bernanke, who always seemed to give a somewhat grudging partial endorsement to gold, had this to say:

“The gold standard appeared to be highly successful from about 1870 to the beginning of World War I in 1914. During the so-called “classical” gold standard period, international trade and capital flows expanded markedly, and central banks experienced relatively few problems ensuring that their currencies retained their legal value. The gold standard was suspended during World War I, however, because of disruptions to trade and international capital flows and because countries needed more financial flexibility to finance their war efforts.

With Trump soon at the helm and in the White House, it’s not beyond the bounds of possibility that Trump and his advisors may explore the utilization of gold within the US monetary system over the next 4 years. And who knows, they might even bring Greenspan and Bernanke in as consultants, but perhaps only if Trump does not audit the Fed!

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The Trump victory was expected by the jackass, but to be honest, it took my breath away with a certain dash of surprise. At an hour past 2am, I could not break away from the TV set, wanting to see the final result. I actually covered my eyes and had empty tears with joy. The US nation can now move past the NeoCon era, the warmonger era, the bank fraud era, the economic gutting era whereby the NeoCon nazis almost completely destroyed their host. Many key figures among the elite will find themselves being hunted, not just by the law enforcement, but by hidden entities with intentions to clean the planet of this deeply corrupted human vermin. Trump as president will have an enormous daunting task to rebuild the national economy, which has been systematically wrecked by the BushJr Admin and the Obama Admin. For those still too dim mentally to perceive, the NeoCons cut across political parties, joining the Bush Team, the Clinton Team, and the Obama Team with narcotics and globalization their common cord. That cord will be cut.

The next big shock to hit the United States will be a positive thrust from the end of military threatened conflict with respect to Russia, and even to China. With Russia the detente will involve a measured end to sanctions and a possible dismantle of NATO, whereby the Gazprom pipeline might be agreed upon with some special provisions that benefit the poorer European states. With relaxed tensions on the Chinese front, look instead to new escalation to trade war between the US and China. Trump has promised to reverse tax breaks for US-based multinational corporations that outsourced labor to the Asian front, only to have their output imported into the US. Expect some thorny negotiations, and some compromise, along with a truly massive reconstruction of the USEconomy with thousands of new little companies being formed, even with free trade zones. 

The other shock will be negative to hit the United States. The global rejection of the USDollar will become put under stronger light very soon. The several non-USD platforms have greatly accelerated their volumes, something not well publicized within the US financial press. Trump will work constructively on this matter, but he might actually be a little on the defensive, since he knows well the gravity of the situation. The USDollar will soon lose its global currency reserve status, and with it comes the manifested necessity of the domestic USDollar. The Jackass has called this the New Scheiss Dollar. It has numerous east coast warehouses full of the so-called rainbow dollar. Given the $550 billion annual trade deficit, any new dollar must be devalued. My firm belief is that it will be subject to a 30% devaluation immediately, and another 30% devaluation within its first year after inception. Given the extreme difficulty and challenge to reduce the trade deficit, expect a series of further 10% devaluations in the future even after new companies are formed with a national emergency mission to export in greater volume in order to reduce the deficit. The Gold price will be released during these nasty developmental phases. Expect the COMEX and LBMA to be shut down on their paper gold operations. 

The Gold price will rise during this entire period of transition. The uncertainty will initially drive it higher. Later, the extreme challenges behind the new dollar and its steep devaluation schedule will drive the price higher. Meanwhile the transition from a fascist state to a capitalist state will see numerous elite figures and established institutions put under legal scrutiny. Some will be jailed, while some institutions will be reformed or vanish. The Gold price will respond to the legal strains on these former power centers. Trump knows what a fair sound currency means, since a smart man. He will eventually embrace the Gold Standard as a plank toward USEconomic Reconstruction. Many are the missing details however. Under his administration, the Gold price might find its true value, but only during a horrendous chapter for the USEconomy in its transition. It must pass through the Third World gates, at least for a year or two, maybe more.

One has to question his choice of Newt Gingrich as Secretary of State, and Rudy Guiliani as Attorney General. So the Crew of Deplorables won, and the Crew of Deportables lost, how funny! Gingrich might actually enjoy a fine second career as statesman, which could be constructive to reverse the NeoCon aggressions. Guiliani might be very effective in enabling the truth to emerge on the 9/11 crime scene, winning a pardon for himself in the process. Trump captured the anger on the clearly delineated justice gap, whereby the upper levels enjoy a pass on high crimes and misdemeanors like murder, grand larceny, influence peddling, and treason. Trump won with the men vote, the white no college vote, and the vote for real change. He embodies Andrew Jackson, Teddy Roosevelt, and PT Barnum, as one newscaster put it last night. Hillary could not energize sufficiently the black vote, and lost the white woman suburban vote very interestingly. Many women voters do indeed want a woman to break the glass ceiling, like that symbolically placed at the Javitz Center last night, but just not her. They might want a woman who is not a liar, murderer, and traitor. Hillary tried to win the Satanist vote, using Beyonce and Katie Perry and Jay-Z in campaign rallies, but Trump won with a Christian theme which was under-stated. Those entertainment professionals are all avowed Satanists. The spotlight is finally on the Satanist element of the elite. In the recent past, several clients warned the Jackass not to pursue the Satanist theme. I ignored them. Now the disgusting sordid theme is in the headlines, thanks to the courageous efforts of Wikileaks and certain FBI officers. The link between NeoCons and Satanists will be established soon in the open, to include the leading banks. 

A certain degree of credit goes to Bob Scheiffer and Charlie Rose at CBS, for their not so hidden criticism of the press, for getting it wrong on the polls. Other press executives showed their yellow streak and fascist bias to the end, refusing to call Pennsylvania until the bitter end. It will be extremely interesting to watch the mainstream news networks struggle for press passes to attend White House functions when their reporting was so badly biased over the past few months, and their polls were intentionally biased with over-representation of Democrats in their sampling process. Let the rebuilding begin, and not too much forgiveness for treason. Let no respite be given for murder, including the children by the Clinton Foundation. Watch the name of Madeline McCann rise up, a little girl from England. She was abducted a couple years ago, and Hillary’s campaign manager Podesta might find himself embroiled in the investigation. She might have been on the Satanist altar for sacrifice by these sick gangsters.

Brexit and Trump and Free Options

As the evening developed, and it began to dawn on Americans – and the world – that Donald Trump might actually win, markets plunged. The S&P was down 100 points before midnight; the dollar index was off 2%. Gold rose about $70; 10-year yields rose 15bps. Nothing about that was surprising. Lots of people predicted that if Trump somehow won, markets would gyrate and move in something close to this way. If Clinton won, the ‘status quo’ election would mean much calmer markets.

So, we got the upset. Despite the hyperbole, it was hardly a “stunning” upset.[1] Going into yesterday, the “No Toss Ups” maps had Trump down about 8 electoral votes. Polls in all of the “battleground” states were within 1-2 points, many with Trump in the lead. Yes, the “road to victory” was narrow, requiring Trump to win Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and a few other hotly-contested battlegrounds, but no step along that road was a long shot (and it wasn’t like winning 6 coin flips, because these are correlated events). Trump’s victory odds were probably 20%-25% at worst: long odds, but not ridiculous odds. (And I believe the following wind to Trump from the timing of Obamacare letters was underappreciated; I wrote about this effect on October 27th).

And yet, stock markets in the two days prior to the election rose aggressively, pricing in a near-certainty of a Clinton victory. Again, recall that pundits thought that a Clinton victory would see little market reaction, but a violent reaction could obtain if Trump won. Markets, in other words, were offering tremendous odds on an event that was unlikely, but within the realm of possibility. The market was offering nearly-free options. The same thing happened with Brexit: although the vote was close to a coin-flip, the market was offering massive odds on the less-likely event. Here is an important point as well – in both cases, the error bars had to be much wider than normal, because there were dynamics that were not fully understood. Therefore, the “out of the money” outcome was not nearly as far out of the money as it seemed. And yet, the market paid you handsomely to be short markets (or less long) before the Brexit vote. The market paid you handsomely to be short markets (or less long) before yesterday’s election results were reported. And, patting myself on the back, I said so.

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This is not a political blog, but an investing blog. And my point here about investing is simple: any competent investor cannot afford to ignore free, or nearly-free, options. Whatever you thought the outcome of the Presidential election was likely to be, it was an investing imperative to lighten up longs (at least) going into the results. If the status-quo happened, you would not have lost much, but if the status quo was upset, you would have gained much. As I’ve been writing recently about inflation breakevens (which was also a hard-to-lose trade, though less dramatic), the tail risks were really underpriced. Investing, like poker, is not about winning every hand. It is about betting correctly when the hand is played.

At this hour, stock markets are bouncing and bond markets are selling off. These next moves are the difficult ones, of course, because now we all have the same information. I suspect stocks will recover some, at least temporarily, because investors will price a Federal Reserve that is less likely to tighten and the knee-jerk response is to buy stocks in that circumstance. But it is interesting that at the moment, while stocks remain lower the bond market gains have completely reversed and are turning into a rout. 10-year inflation breakevens are wider by about 9-10bps, which is a huge move. But there will be lots of gyrations from here. The easy trade was the first one.

The Presidential Election Won’t Stop the MOTHER OF ALL DEFLATIONS

Unfortunately, it doesn’t really matter which party wins the presidential election as neither one will be unable to stop the coming MOTHER OF ALL DEFLATIONS.  While it is frustrating to watch just how insane this presidential race has disintegrated into, I try to not to focus on it.

Why?  Because the U.S. Government will become totally powerless to deal with the future financial and economic collapse.  Furthermore, most institutions will also lose the ability to function when the system cracks.   This really isn’t a matter of if or when…. IT’S HAPPENING NOW.

According to a recent Zerohedge article, Dallas “Pension Fund Panic” As Major Warns Of 130% Property Tax Hike To Avoid Collapse,

“This is much like a Bernie Madoff scheme, if you ask me,” said Dallas mayor Miek Rawling discussing the collapse of the local Dallas Police and Fire Pension Fund. The Dallas pension board wants the city to contribute $1.1. billion in 2018, but to do that, they would have to increase the property tax rate by 130%.

This is just one sign of many hundreds that continue to eat away at the financial and economic system.  What is ironic to witness is the complete failure of the analyst community to understand the real reason for these financial disasters.  While most of the blame is put on the totally useless Mainstream Financial Networks, the majority of the alternative media analysts are clueless as well.

This is due to the alternative media’s failure to understand the underlying energy dynamics.  I used to read a lot of the alternative media sites (especially the precious metals), but presently only look over a few.  Many of the precious metals sites continue to harp on matters that really aren’t important anymore.

Of course, they do this because they do not want to look at the vital energy dynamics.  For some reason, most of the precious metals analysts look at energy as just another industry…. much like the retail or health care industries.  It doesn’t matter to them that the price of oil is now $75 below the cost of new production of $125 a barrel(according to the Hills Group work).

The falling oil price is totally gutting the U.S. and Global Oil Industry.  I wrote about this in my article, The End Of The U.S. Major Oil Industry Era: Big Trouble At ExxonMobil.  Without transports fuels, the world’s economy disintegrates…. and disintegrate it will.

Thus, the collapsing oil price will destroy the value of most physical and paper assets, BUT NOT GOLD & SILVER.  Here is a chart of the “Global Asset Universe” by the Savills Research Group Report:

Global-Asset-Universe-2015NEW

As we can see, they estimate that the total Global Real Estate Market is valued at $217 trillion, Securitized Debt (Treasuries & Bonds) at $94 trillion and Equities (Stocks) at $55 trillion.  In their report, they stated that all the gold mined in the world was valued at $6 trillion.  I revised that figure to only include “physical investment gold and silver” which is estimated to be $3.1 trillion.  You can check how I estimated the $3.1 trillion of gold and silver in my article, How High Will Silver’s Value Increase Compared To Gold During The Next Financial Crisis?

The Savills Group breaks down the Global Real Estate market into “investable” and ‘non-investable.”  According to their estimates, they list that of the total $217 trillion in global real estate, only $81 trillion are investable, while the remainder is held privately.

global-assets-savills-group-table

The value of global real estate, stocks and bonds are totally inflated based on a much higher oil price of $110-$125.  Now with the price of oil at $45, the value of these assets should have collapsed a few years ago.  If we consider the price of oil was $110 in 2012 and now is $45, that represents a collapse of nearly 60%.

Unfortunately, many people do not understand that the value of real estate, stocks and bonds are based on the value of energy.  Instead, they blindly believe the value of these assets are based on “SUPPLY & DEMAND” or some other VOO-DOO Economics.

If we look at Louis Arnoux’s chart showing the U.S. GDP value per American in gold and oil units, it collapsed back in 2012.  Again, the U.S. GDP and value of most paper assets should have collapsed along with gold and oil, but they didn’t:

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The chart shows how U.S. GDP per American (Green) continues higher even though gold per head (Blue) and oil per head (Red) collapsed in 2012.

Thus, we have the Greatest Real Estate and Financial Bubble in history looking for a pin…… and the pin is the falling price and production of oil.  I will explain this in more detail in upcoming articles, however if we assume a 75% collapse in the value of real estate, bonds and stocks, this would be the result:

global-asset-universe-after-deflation

Global Real Estate values would fall to $54 trillion, Securitized Debt would drop to $23 trillion and equity values would fall to $14 trillion.  Thus, the total value of these assets would collapse by $274 trillion to $91 trillion.  However, the value of physical gold and silver would surge to ten times its value to $31 trillion.

Of course, this is just an estimate, but if we consider the value of real estate, stocks and bonds falling 75%, only 10% of that $274 trillion lost is $27 trillion.  Which means, just 10% of the value of these assets moving into gold and silver would push their value up to $31 trillion.

Again, this is just an estimate, but investors have no idea just how quickly the value of global real estate, bonds and stocks will fall in the future.  I put a figure of a 75% collapse, but that is just in the beginning to middle stages.  I would imagine, by the time the global crash is complete, these values could literally fall by 90-95%.

The current Presidential Election is a complete farce.  Even though I try to stay away from politics, it becomes extremely frustrating to see the public totally brainwashed by Mainstream media propaganda.

People need to start distancing themselves from anything that is run by a centralized system, whether that be government, finance or the economy.  It is time to look to more local and regional solutions as the viability of centralized systems collapse over the next 5-10 years.

Check back for new articles and updates at the SRSrocco Report.