Bonds & Interest Rates
The costs of the largest game of “Greater Fools” in economic history
Rarely do we investors get a market that we know is overvalued and that approaches such clearly defined limits as the bond market now. That is because there is a limit as to how negative bond yields can go. Their expected returns relative to their risks are especially bad. If interest rates rise just a little bit more than is discounted in the curve it will have a big negative effect on bonds and all asset prices, as they are all very sensitive to the discount rate used to calculate the present value of their future cash flows.
That is because with interest rates having declined, the effective durations of all assets have lengthened, so they are more price-sensitive. For example, it would only take a 100 basis point rise in Treasury bond yields to trigger the worst price decline in bonds since the 1981 bond market crash. And since those interest are embedded in the pricing of all investment assets, that would send them all much lower.
….related:
Roughly Every 80 Years, the Piper Always Gets Paid …

After a recession-signalling three straight quarters of decline, Q3 prleminary productivity data showed a huge 3.1% surge QoQ – the biggest jump since Q3 2014. However, the jump was not enough to regain annual gains as year-over-year productivity declined 0.04%. This is the first consecutive annual decline since 1993.
After the longest streak of declines since 1979, US productivity surged in Q3…

A week ago it looked like the US government was destined to end up firmly – maybe even more firmly — in the hands of the banks, public sector unions and defense contractors. Trump was imploding and the markets were basking in the prospect of never-ending liquidity from a re-energized Fed. And safe-haven assets like gold were being dumped in favor of growth stocks and the like.
Then Anthony Weiner reached out from the grave to throw the result back into doubt. Polls have tightened, especially in crucial swing states, and it’s now at least conceivable that an outsider will gain control of bank regulation and nuclear codes, with all the uncertainty that that implies.
Today’s markets, addicted as they are to government coddling, don’t like this idea one bit, and capital is suddenly running scared. Where’s it going? Where it always goes in times of uncertainty, straight into precious metals:
Now it’s completely possible – maybe even probable – that come November 9 the establishment holds onto power, in which case the panic will subside and capital will flow back out of precious metals. But that won’t matter long-term for at least two reasons.
First, the financial stability that results from central banks buying up bonds and stocks and guaranteeing the derivatives books of the big banks is illusory. Governments have a tiger by the tail, and as debt continues to soar around the world that tiger will grow more and more frenzied. Eventually it will turn around and eat the idiots who presumed to control it, which is to say a debt-driven crisis of epic proportions becomes more likely with every new multi-billion-dollar bond offering. And when the bust comes, panicked capital will behave the way it did in 2009, pouring into assets like gold that can’t be created in infinite quantities by out-of-control governments.
Second, Trump was just a warning shot. He proved that there’s a political market niche for someone willing to point out the fatal flaws and inequities of the current system, and the unprotected class is ready to follow a less flawed version of Trump in massive numbers. So next time around someone more polished will pick up that torch and win by a landslide. Then this week’s political uncertainty will return with a vengeance, once again sending capital pouring into safe havens.
Which leaves three scenarios going forward:
1) Trump wins and today’s gold bull market is turbo-charged, with $100 up days becoming the norm for a while.
2) Clinton wins and business as usual continues until the system collapses under the weight of its own corruption – setting off a stampede into precious metals.
3) The next election features a Trump sans the horrendously rough edges, who wins a mandate from both right and left to break up the banks, audit or abolish the Fed and close down the global military empire. And terrified establishment capital pours into gold.
However your slice it, the big trends all point towards chaos. And chaos is always and everywhere good for precious metals.

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,150, and profit target at 2,020, S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook is neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year’s all-time high:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral
The U.S. stock market indexes lost between 0.4% and 0.8% on Wednesday, extending their short-term downtrend, as investors reacted to the FOMC Rate Decision, quarterly corporate earnings, economic data releases. The S&P 500 index broke below its September – October local lows on Tuesday. It is the lowest since early July. The nearest important support level is at around 2,075-2,090, marked by some previous consolidation. The next important level of support is at 2,035-2,045, marked by the late June daily gap up. On the other hand, resistance level is at 2,110-2,120, and the next resistance level is at 2,150 marked by last month’s local highs, as we can see on the daily chart:
Expectations before the opening of today’s trading session are mixed, with index futures currently between -0.4% and +0.1%. The main European stock market indexes have been mixed so far. Investors will now wait for some economic data announcements: Initial Claims, Productivity at 8:30 a.m., Factory Orders, ISM Services number at 10:00 a.m. The S&P 500 futures contract trades within an intraday consolidation, as it bounces off support level at around 2,085-2,090. The nearest important level of resistance is at 2,100 mark. There have been no confirmed short-term positive signals so far:
The technology Nasdaq 100 futures contract is relatively weaker than the broad stock market, following yesterday’s Facebook’s quarterly earnings release. It currently trades along the level of 4,700. The nearest important level of support is at around 4,690, and resistance level remains at 4,720-4,740, among others, as the 15-minute chart shows:
Concluding, the broad stock market continued its short-term downtrend yesterday, as the S&P 500 index traded the lowest since early July. We continue to maintain our speculative short position (opened on July 18th at 2,162, S&P 500 index). However, yet again we decided to move our stop-loss level: from 2,180 down to 2,150 (S&P 500 index). Our potential profit target level remains at 2,020 (S&P 500 index). You can trade S&P 500 index using futures contracts (S&P 500 futures contract – SP, E-mini S&P 500 futures contract – ES) or an ETF like the SPDR S&P 500 ETF – SPY. It is always important to set some exit price level in case some events cause the price to move in the unlikely direction. Having safety measures in place helps limit potential losses while letting the gains grow.
…related:
Don’t Sweat The Election. The Next Crisis Is Already Baked Into The Cake

If you have been subscribing to my newsletter long enough, or following my blog, you will know how strongly I believe in good disciplines, rituals and systems. I am 100% sure that achieving success, like growing your business, is never an accident. Rather, it results from doing a few critical things well and REPEATEDLY, over a long period of time. The path to achieving any significant accomplishment is very clear, as there are proven markers set by successful people who have gone before us. One of the most important of these markers is the relentless focus on doing a few critical and important things every day, over and over, until it is no longer a conscious chore, but an unconscious habit.
In fact, I suggest business leaders actually take it a step further and create a ritual or routine every day (or every morning),
that will start the day off with traction and set it up for success. What is a ritual or routine? It is a series of actions or steps one takes, performed in a set sequence and normally in a set environment, to achieve a desired goal. You likely already have a ritual and never realized it, or it may be hurtful rather than helpful. For instance, getting up a little to late, hitting the snooze button a couple of time, excessively browse the internet, running late and hitting pick traffic will not make you a champion when you arrive a work. You will be tired, frazzled and unfocused. A good ritual will focus on the few activities that give you the most bang for your buck, in terms of energy, focus and committment to your long-term goals. It will take you away from the activities and people that slow you down, and focus your attention on the activities that you need to be successful.
Here is my morning ritual, which I thought you might find helpful. I am showing you this as an example and highly encourage you to develop your own ritual that suits your unique circumstances.
My Morning Ritual:
- I set the alarm clock for the same time each day (6:00 am) and am usually up and going by the time it sounds.
- Check and respond to my overnight email while having a coffee and light breakfast.
- I normally read something inspirational or work on a writing project before leaving for my office or first meeting.
- At my office, I plan my day with a Goal and Action Planning Template I created, which includes the following steps:
- Write out my 3 long-term aspirational goals.
- Write out my 3 monthly goals.
- Write out my 3 weekly goals.
- Most important, write out my three priorities FOR THAT DAY and allocate time for each one.
- I schedule my day around the top three priorities and try to stick to it!
- I complete my habit checklist (which I described in a previous post) to stay on track.
- My routine is now complete and I start my day.
This entire routine is designed to start the day in a relaxed and positive state of mind, followed by a focus on my goals and habits, and ends with a tangible daily schedule around those goals. Am I perfect? Absolutely not, but the more I stick to this routine the better the day goes. If I get off track one day, I don’t worry about it too much. Rather, I reset the next morning and keep on going.
The key point is this: If you want to be successful, focus on what successful people do, and do it over, and over and over, until it becomes a habit. Over time, success will come more easily, causing you and your business to prosper.
….related:
How To Learn From Every Failure
