Timing & trends

Hillary or Donald? Who cares?

Posted by Michael Campbell

on Monday, 12 September 2016 14:59

donald-trump-vs-hillary-clinton-xlI don’t think anyone in the commentariat shows any sign of understanding what is revealed by the two political quotes below. The first quote is my favorite because it sums up my sentiments.
 
Gary Johnson, the presidential candidate for the Libertarian Party in the US was asked during his appearance on The View whether he would vote Clinton or Trump if someone had a gun to his head. He replied:
 “I’d let the gun go off.”
 
The second quote is representative of the mainstream media. Its a generalization but i think the evidence supports it. It was made by New York Magazine writer Jonathan Chait who said this week 
 
“the average undecided voter is getting snippets of news from television personalities like Matt Lauer who are failing to convey the fact that the election pits a normal politician with normal political feelings against an ignorant, bigoted, pathologically dishonest authoritarian.”
 
Some ask why I look at politics. To be blunt, its pivotal to understanding major investment trends from the Canadian dollars value to real estate and of course stocks. The capital flows that move investments and currencies are driven by confidence, primarily in government. Last year 1.3 trillion dollars moved out of Russia, 1.2 trillion out of China.  I think most of us understand for example, that money moving out of China has been a major mover of high-end real estate in Vancouver, Toronto, New York, Melbourne and Sydney. Russia has been a big player in London and New York.
 
The biggest player on the world stage though is the US and that’s why I’m focusing on it. It has the biggest capital flows in both directions and what we’re seeing in this election is unprecedented, and it will be a pivotal catalyst for the financial and social chaos that’s to come. At Money Talks World Outlook Conference with Martin Armstrong and on the Money Talks show I’ve been unequivocal that the next four years are going to make the extreme volatility and the social and economic dislocation of the last seven years seem like the good old days.
 
With that said let me come back to New York magazine writer Jonathan Chait’s statement that:
 
“the election pits a  normal politician with normal political feelings against an ignorant, bigoted, pathologically dishonest, authoritarian.”
 
My reading is that this represents the commentariats prevailing view. They are on the side that says that Hillary Clinton’s unethical behavior, her outright lying that I would characterize as the worst in the political establishment, is better than the bombastic ill-conceived passing acquaintance with the truth that Donald Trump displays. That focus completely misses the big picture. It makes no difference if you think as friends of mine do that Donald Trump couldn’t be worse with what’s going on now. Or as other people i know think that anything would be better than Donald. What the commentariat seems oblivious to, is that the choice marks a key point in the demise of confidence in government. Each candidate is profoundly polarized, and whoever wins the presidency is going to start with the highest disapproval rating in history, somewhere around sixty percent. They will preside over the next leg of the entitlement crisis that’s already claimed Detroit, Stockton, Chicago and Puerto Rico. At some point we’ll stop ignoring this but I can’t emphasize enough that the entitlement crisis going to be pivotal.
 
When I first read mr. Chaits quote on Hillary Clinton, that she’s a normal politician with normal political feelings I thought if she’s the norm the system deserves to unravel. But it’s more than that. The commentariat seem completely out of touch with the suffering and hardship that so many experience. I you know I’ve mentioned this a lot of other times in conjunction with our own debate over oil and pipelines that not once have I ever heard the leaders of the anti pipeline and anti oil movement even mention the massive job losses and dislocation for certain communities. It’s not even acknowledged, and this kind of bottom line elitism is what fuels the discontent.
 
As well known New York Times columnist David Brooks said “Trump voters are a coalition of the dispossessed. They’ve suffered job losses, lost wages, lost dreams. The American system is not working for them so naturally they’re looking for something else.” Many in the media, especially me, did not understand just how they would express their alienation. We expected Trump to fizzle because we’re not socially intermingled with his supporters and did not listen carefully enough. I think that’s a beautiful summation of the Canadian mainstream media, and also in the States. Mr. Brooks got the message but I see little evidence that the vast majority of the commentariat or the political establishment has. They didn’t see the Brexit vote coming. They seem oblivious to what happened in Greece with the election of the newly formed Syriza party. No thoughts on the upcoming election in Austria where they Anti-Eu party will win. The defeat of Angela Merkel’s party in regional elections in Germany last week? No. No thoughts on any of those dramatic changes.  

The question who or what comes next is the key political and economic question in the next decade. The election of Hillary Clinton, the ultimate elitist establishment Wall Street candidate as Bernie Sanders said is going to exacerbate the trend. The backlash against the political elite has begun and the trend is going to be propelled by litany of broken promises by the welfare state starting with unfunded public sector pensions compounded by major debt problems.
 
That’s the big picture to understand, not what your political favorite is.
 
 

About Michael Campbell, Host & Publisher, MONEYTALKS

One of Canada`s most respected business analyst, Michael is best known as the host of Canada’s top rated syndicated business radio show MoneyTalks, and Senior Business Analyst for BCTV News on Global. His outstanding investing track record has been recognized by internationally renowned analysts like James Dines, Martin Armstrong, Peter Grandich, Greg Weldon and many more. Michael`s Inside Edge subscribers have made, and perhaps more importantly, saved money based on his analysis of market trends and opportunities. Including advocating picking up blue-chip dividend paying stocks in every major dip since 2011, getting out of gold in September of 2012, recommending $US denominated assets in Dec of 2013, and getting out of oil stocks in Jan of 2014.

 

Stock Trading Alert: Stocks Broke Below Their Two Month Long Consolidation – New Downtrend?

Posted by Paul Rejczak - Sunshine Profits

on Monday, 12 September 2016 14:50

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,210, and profit target at 2,050, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook is now neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year’s all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

The U.S. stock market indexes lost 2.1-2.6% on Friday, breaking below their two-month-long consolidation, as investors’ sentiment worsened following Fed rate hike fears, among others. The S&P 500 index broke below support level of 2,150-2,160, marked by previous local lows. It got back slightly below its last year’s high at around 2,135. The nearest important level of resistance is at 2,150, marked by recent support level. On the other hand, potential level of support is at 2.100-2,120, marked by some previous local highs. Is this a new medium-term downtrend, or just quick downward correction within an over half-year long uptrend?

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Expectations before the opening of today’s trading session are negative, with index futures currently down 0.6-0.8%. The European stock market indexes have lost 1.4-2.0% so far. The S&P 500 futures contract trades within an intraday downtrend, as it continues its Friday’s decline. The nearest important level of resistance is at around 2,125, marked by Friday’s daily low. On the other hand, support level is at 2,100 mark. There have been no confirmed positive signals so far. However, we can see some short-term overbought conditions:

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The technology Nasdaq 100 futures contract follows a similar path, as it extends its last week’s sell-off. The nearest important resistance level is at around 4,670-4,680. On the other hand, support level is at 4,600-4,620, among others. There have been no confirmed short-term positive signal so far:

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Concluding, the broad stock market broke below its two-month-long consolidation on Friday, as the S&P 500 index got back below its last year’s high of 2,135. We continue to maintain our already profitable speculative short position (opened on July 18th at 2,162, S&P 500 index). Stop-loss level is at 2,210 and potential profit target is at 2,050 (S&P 500 index). You can trade S&P 500 index using futures contracts (S&P 500 futures contract – SP, E-mini S&P 500 futures contract – ES) or an ETF like the SPDR S&P 500 ETF – SPY. It is always important to set some exit price level in case some events cause the price to move in the unlikely direction. Having safety measures in place helps limit potential losses while letting the gains grow.

Thank you.

Calgary and Edmonton? Not yet.

Posted by Michael Campbell & Ozzie Jurock

on Monday, 12 September 2016 14:17

Ozzie Jurock talks about the declines in Alberta’s top markets. He likes them, but won’t pull the trigger quite yet. As for his Hot Properties, how about a 3300 sq. ft. with pool for only $319,000, and a single family home for a mere $165K.!
 

Don’t miss Michaels Editorial: Hillary or Donald? Who Cares?

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The Legend Jim Dines

Posted by Michael Campbell & Jim Dines

on Saturday, 10 September 2016 19:26

Since his last appearance on Moneytalks his gold and silver stocks have doubled, tripled and one went up over 400% – Mike gets the latest from one of Wall Streets legends.

 

Don’t miss Michaels Editorial: Hillary or Donald? Who Cares?

We’re missign the point. His lies, her lies – It won’t matter which of the most unpopular, divisive candidates in history wins the election – it will further erode confidence in government  making the next four years the most chaotic in generations.

dines

 

Hillary or Donald? Who cares?

Posted by Michael Campbell

on Saturday, 10 September 2016 19:16

We’re missign the point. His lies, her lies – It won’t matter which of the most unpopular, divisive candidates in history wins the election – it will further erode confidence in government  making the next four years the most chaotic in generations.

…also: That’s right. Canada and North Korea are the only 2 countries where you officially can’t spend your own money on health treatment. There’s a powerful lobby that would rather you spend a third of a year on a waiting list if you are only in pain and its not life threatening. The Lunacy Surrounding That Voracious Canadian Money Pit

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