Timing & trends
A fiery debate rages among investors over the question of central bank stimulus. The question is whether the stock market needs stimulus in order to advance, and is stimulus only creating a bubble which will burst at some point and lead to depression? Regardless of the philosophical rectitude of central bank intervention, there can be no denying its efficacy. The most fundamental truth of the financial market is that “liquidity, liquidity, liquidity” is the market’s lifeblood. Financial stimulus…..
related:

The SPX has completed its’ “Broadening Topping Pattern”
…the next trend is DOWNWARDS! (says Chris Vermulen M/T Ed)
The current pattern is suggesting that a significant top is at hand. I fully believe both in patterns and indicators and right now the current pattern is suggesting that a significant top is at hand.
My cycles are suggesting a potential “Black Swan” event, in multiple indexes, which are “imminent”. The SPX may have made its’ last challenge of the upper trend line of its’ ‘Broadening Top’. On Friday, August 19th, 2016, it closed beneath its’ ‘Cycle Top’ resistance at 2185.38. The SPX has fulfilled all of the fractal requirements necessary for a completed “corrective” uptrend. The uptrend from 1810 has been in a “corrective phase”. The next wave down will be an impulsive wave.
The large divergences which I have been viewing, in my proprietary oscillators, are most real and accurate and once the selling begins, the momentum should quickly move to the downside. The current market is being supported by a lack of sellers, more so than aggressive buying. With investors still thinking that there is nowhere else to place their money, they appear to be content with leaving their money at “risk on” assets, within a market that is pushing all-time highs. This type of “mentality” usually leads to large losses, rather than big gains. There is just no opportunity for growth in the SPX!
Investors have become complacent with the current rally. They listen to and believe what the FED has been saying regarding interest rates and they have come to believe that everything about this market depends upon the FED. I do not believe that to be the case. I believe that the FED is or should I say will be irrelevant in due time!
The Bank of America Merrill Lynch reports that its’ clients (institutions, hedge funds and private clients) who have sold stock for all but 2 to 3 weeks, during all of 2016, have once again sold $1.9 billion of US stocks while the SPX was hitting new highs. Institutional clients led the sales due to poor performance. It has been the retail investors that have been flooding into the market while anticipating a massive breakout and rally.
The big and smart money continues to build up massive short positions. George Soros has become more bearish on equity markets, nearly doubling his short bet against the SPX, following similar moves by Jeffrey Gundlach, Carl Icahn and David Tepper. According to his 13F filing, Soros now owns roughly 4 million ‘put options’ on shares of the SPY.
We are presently living on borrowed time and vast amounts of borrowed moneys. This is a period of time of “unprecedented economic upheaval” which was caused by ‘financial engineering’ by governments and their Central Banks. It’s a slow-motion catastrophe, where as we are living today at the expense of tomorrow. The FEDs’ balance sheet has more than quadrupled since the Crash of 2008. This is unprecedented:
Keep in mind, that most of these highly successful investors mentioned above also predicted other major market moves if you look back through the years. Their huge bets and called typically play out, but I do find most of them jump the gun a little early (many months in most cases). Reason being, they understand how and why the markets move, and because they do, they know when various markets are nearing a major turning point.
The catch, with trying to time these major multiyear market reversals is that all investors around the world (all market participants) buying/selling habits need to stall out and reverse direction for the new trend to take hold. This always seems to take longer than we expect, but these highly successful investors along with myself feel this bull market in stocks is about to come to an end.
Conclusion:
The next stage will become a vicious deflationary cycle in which prices and growth “crash and burn”. Prepare for another massive wave poor earnings, job layoffs, and falling stock prices.
Over the past 500 years, or more, whenever deflation emerged, price of gold gained and always gained big, in terms of purchasing power and I don’t feel this time will be any different.
There will be many ways to profit from all of this, precious metals is just one of many awesome opportunities unfolding for myself and subscribers to enjoy.
My ETF Trades: www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com
Chris Vermeulen

Dollar bulls and bears were both restrained this week with prices stuck in a tight range as investor anxiety mounts ahead of Friday’s heavily anticipated Jackson Hole gathering. This event has seized center stage with markets most likely searching for key hints on U.S. rate hike timings which could dispel the period of uncertainty. There may be a possibility of Fed Chair Janet Yellen addressing the inflation dilemma in the States while also keeping the doors open for a live meeting in September to raise U.S. rates.
….read more HERE including Oversupply Fears Entice WTI Bears
…related:
Dollar Retrospective Chart 1971-2016: Next Major Cyclical Driver?

There’s a simple reason the homeownership rate is at a historic low – One of the most trumpeted economic statistics over the past few months has been the 51-year low in the homeownership rate.
KC FED PRESIDENT: It’s time for gradual rate hikes— It is time for the Federal Reserve to raise US interest rates gradually, given progress on employment and inflation, Kansas City Fed PresidentEstherGeorgesaid in television interviews.
…continue reading HERE (scroll down for the list)
….also don’t miss Michael’s Daily Comment: Hmmm…. Will I Eat, Or Pay Taxes

“However, no two people see the external world in exactly the same way. To every separate person a thing is what he thinks it is –in other words, not a thing, but a think.”~ Penelope Fitzgerald
The masses made no noise when central bankers started to flood the system with hot money and are still quiet, so why will the banks stop? There are trillions of dollars that the big players will make and still stand to make before this game is over. We are in the race to the bottom and once a race starts you cannot stop it. So expect the negative rate experiment to be continued and this will continue until the masses revolt. The story below will be heard more often in the months and years to come. Individuals are being forced to speculate in their quest for sustainable yields.
Cathy Berger, a 55-year-old who lives in Nassau County, N.Y., and works as development director at the Queens Chamber of Commerce, said that in the years before the financial crisis she used to invest a large portion of her savings in certificates of deposit, earning an annual rate of as much as 8%.She moved a portion of her savings into high-dividend stocks after rates fell, but lately, those stocks have been under pressure amid turbulence across the financial markets.
“It’s so volatile,” said Ms. Berger. “Trying to reap any kind of income from your money, from your assets, is almost impossible now.” Full Story
Negative rates are already pushing Managers of Pension funds into a tight corner; soon there will be no way to go. Pension funds typically invest in bonds, but bonds are paying such miserly rates that you cannot call it investing anymore. You have to call it charity. At some point these pension funds will be forced to speculate; to some degree, this is already coming to pass. The article below highlights the conundrum most pension fund managers face.
To even come close these days to what is considered a reasonably strong return of 7.5%, pension funds and other large endowments are reaching ever further into riskier investments: adding big dollops of global stocks, real estate and private-equity investments to the once-standard investment of high-grade bonds. Two decades ago, it was possible to make that kind of return just by buying and holding investment-grade bonds, according to new research. Full Story
We are just at the beginning stage of this new trend that we have decided to label as “The speculate or starve Phase“. Imagine the amount of money these funds could bring to the markets in the years to come; it will be like 1-2 QE’s combined.
This market is going to trade at levels that seem dangerously insane even to the most ardent of bulls. We said this in 2014, 2015 and we have said this several times in 2016. Pin this somewhere and look at it one day, you will have some great stories to tell your grandkids when you recall this crazy phase many moons from now.
The Goal of central bankers is to force, not coax, the majority of savers to do something they never thought they would ever do; for a person that saves, the word speculate is a dirty word, but one day these savers will be forced to embrace this term that is alien to them. It is hard to imagine that now, but when they do, central bankers will have proven that an individual’s perception can be altered at will by just changing the angle of observance.
At no point in history have the Top players utilised the principles of Mass psychology so aggressively against the masses as they have done since 2010. They are looking to alter individuals perceptions completely and sadly, they are doing an incredible job. The more we look around, the more we see their techniques working. Thus understand this, no matter what any country states, the end Goal, for now, is to devalue the currency.
It is not all gloom and doom; this mess will pave the way for something better In the future, but before that chaos insists on having its day in the sun. When over 62% of Americans do not have $1000 in a savings account or over 30% would have a hard time coming up with an extra $400 to cover emergency expenses you know that the outlook is far from rosy.
Markets are no longer tied to real economic growth. Today economic growth or lack of it is irrelevant as cheap money powers the markets, and there is a plentiful supply of that for those who least need it; the rich and the powerful have access to endless lines of credit that they can tap and turn into even larger sums. However, the day is drawing closer where bankers will allow the small guy to have access to some of these funds. No bull market has ended without mass participation and for the masses to jump in you need to make them feel like they have money to spend.
If you examine the situation from this angle, you can see that there are many avenues left for the Fed to tap and to push this market into super bubble territory. In such an environment, it would be prudent to own some Gold and Silver bullion.
“The difference between a mountain and a molehill is your perspective.” ~ Al Neuharth
