Timing & trends

Everything Else Aside – This Is Such A Sweet Gig

“Most of my colleagues are dishonest career politicians who revel in the power and special-interest money that’s lavished upon them.” – Best Seller, Congressman X

…..related: Chalk One Up for The Establishment – Mike Duffy’s At It Again

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Italian Banks Aren’t As Problematic As The Media Thinks

What is the true value of the Italian banking system?

We have heard a lot of different opinions concerning the European and, in particular, the Italian banking system, both positive and negative, depending upon the source: let’s try to make things clear.

The Italian premier, Matteo Renzi, told the American Cnbc that the stress tests, led by the EBA (European Banking Authority), showed Italian banks are not the main problem of the European banking system: definitely true since 8 credit institutions failed and only Monte dei Paschi di Siena and Unicredit are Italian.

The list includes the German Commerzbank, the Irish AIB, the British Barclays, the Austrian Raiffeisen Landesbanken and the Spanish Banco Popular; those banks recorded a capital level below the 7.5% limit in case of a negative scenario.

We cannot avoid mentioning the embarrassing -2.4% of Monte dei Paschi di Siena: the only one with a bankruptcy risk in case of adverse situations.

7% is usually considered to be the level triggering the devaluation of bonds and the Italian banking system, with an average of 7.6% of the capital, Italy has been among the weakest in the European area, after Ireland and Austria.

On the other hand, Italy also has the best bank with Intesa San Paolo which scored an outstanding result.
Now we need to look deeper inside Mps and Unicredit to understand the real situation and what the Italian government and the bank’s management are planning to do in order to safeguard customers’ savings.

Mps presents a critical situation due to financial debts which are five times higher than its equity in 2015 and strong losses from 2011 to 2014 as you can see in the picture below which shows the main data and the related growth.

Click on the image below to enlarge it

Screen Shot 2016-08-09 at 9.20.44 AM

Unicredit is in a different situation since they have less net losses at the end of the last 5 years than Mps with some positive results, yet the same situation when we compare financial debts with total equity. This is even one of the largest credit institutions in Europe and the biggest in Italy with one of the highest capitalizations: too big to fail? no, it isn’t. We have already heard these words but we can say the situation is still under control.

The market’s reaction after the stress tests results has been strong with peaks of -16% for Mps and -7% for Unicredit.
Other Italian banking titles have maintained the same trend for years and we strongly believe that this is the right moment to buy them after an accurate technical and fundamental analysis.

Basically it is true that there is a problem of uncollectible receivables inside the banking system, but not as serious as described by the mass media all around the world. The international speculation has done much to lower stock prices so that foreign investors are able to purchase Italian companies at discounted prices

We analyze balances every day and their Fair Values are all higher than current prices. For example, we take a look at the Banca Popolare di Milano’s Fair value and, as displayed in the picture below, the current price is strongly inside the buy range.

We analyze balances every day and their Fair Values are all higher than current prices. For example, we take a look at the Banca Popolare di Milano’s Fair value and, as displayed in the picture below, the current price is strongly inside the buy range.

Screen Shot 2016-08-09 at 9.27.04 AM

Brought to you by

1. Big Hitters Warn Of Market Meltdowns

    by Michael Campbell

Skilled investors like Soros, Gross, Ichan & Druckenmiller are saying they don’t like the underlying implications of the Central Banks actions at all, and are positioning their portfolios for a tragic conclusion

….read more HERE

2. On The Brink of Soaring Move Up In Gold & Silver

Featured guest Greg Weldon is as excited about the Precious Metals right now as he was when he recommended them in 2005 at $450.

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3. Martin Armstrong: Europe on the Brink of Complete Chaos?

There are so many incidents with the refugee crisis in Europe that the blog could be filled with that subject alone.

….more HERE

Martin Armstrong: Europe on the Brink of Complete Chaos?

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There are so many incidents with the refugee crisis in Europe that the blog could be filled with that subject alone. Even the press in Germany is starting to shift after countless incidents from knife attacks to a gang beating and robbing British tourists in the same square in Cologne, Germany. Not to mention the media’s failure to report things like the attack on women in Cologne and the protest in Frankfurt during the opening of the ECB that set the city on fire.

Up until now, the common view of the German press has been that it is THEM against the PEOPLE, because they are protecting Merkel at every corner. News blackouts have been the name of the game to the point that the people view the press as just an arm of government. Attacks by refugees are widening from France to other nations including Ireland.

It is as if the fate of the world could easily spiral downward now. All it will take is perhaps a flood of knife attacks throughout Europe to divide the people squarely against the refugees. Meanwhile, tourism is collapsing in Europe, not to mention Turkey. This will have a further deflationary impact upon the economic data that will be published by year-end.

also from Martin Armstrong: Europe Begins to Rebel Against Austerity

and: Germany Raids Healthcare Funds to Support Refugee Crisis

 

Here’s how the government is stealing more than ever before–

Civil forfeitureThe year was 1986.

Top Gun was the #1 movie in America.

Halley’s Comet was visible with the naked eye.

Microsoft went public, instantly making Bill Gates one of the wealthiest people in the world.

And the US government took in $93.7 million through a little known authority called “Civil Asset Forfeiture”.

As you’re likely aware, Civil Asset Forfeiture is a legal process that allows the government to seize assets from private citizens without any due process or judicial oversight.

People can be deprived of their private property without ever having been even charged with a crime, let alone never having actually committed one.

The horror stories of its abuse are endless.

People who have never done anything wrong have had their life’s savings, homes, and business assets confiscated without so much as a warrant.

This constitutes theft, plain and simple.

And like most government initiatives, it started small.

Again, the statistics from 1986 show $93.7 million worth of cash and property was seized by the government.

By 2014, that figure had grown 4,667% to a whopping $4.5 billion.

And we learned in 2015 that the government stole so much private property from its citizens that the total amount exceeded the value of all property stolen by every thief and felon in America combined.

It reminds me of that sign Ron Paul used to keep on his desk during his tenure in Congress: “Don’t steal. The government hates competition.”

The public also learned about all the extraordinary incentives for state, local, and federal police agencies to steal from private citizens.

The entire idea behind Civil Asset Forfeiture is that they can confiscate your property, then put the burden on YOU to prove that you didn’t do anything wrong in order to get your property back.

So much for innocent until proven guilty.

It’s such an astonishing scam: how is someone supposed to be able to afford to prove his/her innocence after their financial resources have been confiscated?

Moreover, it turns out that these agencies are all sharing the wealth among themselves.

The US Department of Justice routinely doles out hundreds of millions of dollars of these stolen funds to local police in a corrupt sort of ‘proft sharing’ arrangement.

DOJ statistics show that between 2000 and 2013, federal “equitable sharing payments” to state and local law enforcement more than tripled, totaling an incredible $4.7 billion.

There are some sickening stories of police departments using this money to buy things like margarita machines, trips to Hawaii, concert tickets, and more.

Again, this is money that was stolen from private citizens without a warrant or any due process whatsoever.

24-year old Charles Clarke, for example, had $11,000 in physical cash on him when he was traveling through Cincinnati airport.

Clarke didn’t have a bank account; he had been saving money for his entire life, including his disabled mother’s VA pension from her time in the military.

He ordinarily kept the cash at home but was traveling with it because he and his mother were moving apartments.

Local officials at the airport saw the money, and, despite it being perfectly legal to carry physical cash, they thought it was suspicious and confiscated it.

His entire life’s savings was stolen by the government in an instant. And he hadn’t done anything wrong or charged with a crime.

There are countless more stories like Clarke’s.

But it turns out that was all just Phase 1 when Civil Asset Forfeiture was a type of ‘passive’ theft.

Law enforcement agencies would seize funds and assets as a target of opportunity, like Clarke’s money at the airport, or a cop who spots a few thousand dollars in cash at a routine traffic stop.

These are the normal stories.

But now we find out that federal agencies, led by the DEA, are now activelystalking Americans to figure out what they can seize.

Like sophisticated thieves who case a jewelry store before robbing it, the DEA has been trolling Americans’ travel records looking for ‘suspicious’ activity.

I’m not talking about past travel. I’m talking about upcoming travel.

Anytime you book a flight, airlines create a code called a PNR, or Passenger Name Record, with all of your travel details and personal information.

And what a surprise– the federal government has gotten its hands on this data.

So now it seems the DEA is combing through PNRs looking for suspicious activity like last minute, one-way tickets.

Because apparently only slimy low-lifes who carry treasure troves of illicitly acquired cash buy last minute one-way tickets.

This is amazing: you’d think that, with the obvious public backlash against Civil Asset Forfeiture over the past two years that the government would tone down the practice.

On the contrary, they’re taking it to the next level.

So now instead of passively waiting to steal from citizens as the opportunities arise, they’re actively casing our travel itineraries looking for potential targets.

This is truly banana republic stuff.

This trend serves as an obvious reminder: when you live in a place with such a corrupt system of justice, does it really make sense to keep 100% of your wealth and life’s savings within their easy reach?

The fact is that any court, police department, or government agency can seize your assets in an instant: your cash, car, bank account, business, and even your home.

And with the data this obvious, it’s simply not worth the risk.

There are so many legal steps you can take to insulate yourself from this growing, ominous trend.

You can move some funds offshore to a safe, stable foreign bank. Or even hold some gold and silver abroad in a non-reportable safety deposit box.

But doing nothing in light of this trend is practically an invitation to get robbed.

Have a good weekend, 

Simon Black

Founder, SovereignMan.com

related: Michael Campbell on: Chalk One Up for The Establishment – Mike Duffy’s At It Again