Stocks & Equities

Institutional Investors: Still Holding on …

Since the Institutional Investors are the largest stock owner group (owing over half), when they sell, they put tremendous downside pressure on the market.

When the don’t sell, the lack of their selling takes pressure off of the market and allows it to go higher on retail buying (even if Institutions are buying very little).

So, what are they doing now? If you look at today’s posted chart, Institutional Investors were still in a selling down trend at the close yesterday which has been a market positive.’

42048

related:

Stock Trading Alert: Stocks Remain At All-Time High, Will They Continue Even Higher?

About Marty Chenard:

Marty is an Advanced Stock Market Technical Analyst that has developed his own proprietary analytical tools and stock market models. As a result, he was out of the market two weeks before the 1987 Crash in the most recent Bear Market he faxed his Members in March 2000 telling them all to SELL. He is an advanced technical analyst and not an investment advisor, nor a securities broker.

Climbing Gold and Silver’s Wall of Worry

Confidence is slippery, even when you are a metals investor sitting atop the best performing assets of 2016. It doesn’t help when 4 years of a miserable bear market remains fresh in our memories. Any weakness in prices and it can feel like markets are getting ready to plunge right back to $13 silver and $1,000 gold.

That feeling is called the “Wall of Worry”, and bulls are going to have to climb it by staying in the market even if their emotions are telling them to bail. Let’s review the last 6 weeks because they are quite instructional.

June 1st: Silver closed at $15.97 and gold at $1,213. Precious metals prices stood well below the highs put in at the end of April and plenty of people declared the end of metals bull run.

There was plenty of reason to worry. At the time, markets were obsessed with Federal Reserve policy and sentiment was darkening.

42045 aThe year had opened with turmoil in the stock markets. The S&P 500 was plummeting in response to a December rate hike with the expectation of more hikes to come. Precious metals surged as investors sought refuge from crumbling stocks.

In mid-February Fed officials responded to the collapse in stock prices by reversing their rhetoric on interest rates. They reaffirmed their undying commitment to growth and prosperity through freshly printed cash!

Metals got another boost and the S&P 500 took off like a rocket.

So much so that, by June, schizophrenic officials had reversed direction once again. They sounded an economic “all clear” and began jawboning about raising rates. Some thought they might even get around to hiking as soon as the FOMC meeting in the middle of the month.

June 3rd: The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released a disastrous jobs report for May, missing even the most conservative estimates by a mile. The consensus on more rate hikes simply blinked out of existence. Forget higher interest rates, investors began wondering if Negative Interest Rate Policy would soon be making its U.S. debut.

Gold prices jumped by $80/oz to $1,299/oz over the following 2 weeks. Silver raced ahead by $1.50 to $17.54/oz.

Then, in the days leading up to the Brexit vote, metals prices take a beating. Everyone is watching, but no one expects the British to vote “Leave.”

June 23rd: United Kingdom voters shock people everywhere. Stock markets crash, there is turmoil in the foreign exchange markets and people wonder if Brexit represents the kick-off for the next worldwide financial crisis.

42045 bNot only were interest rate hikes back off of the table, central bankers stood out front and did what they do best: they assured markets that no one need pay for their sins. They stood at the ready to provide “liquidity,” also known as unlimited cash to prop up overleveraged and mismanaged banks and hedge funds who lost bets they couldn’t afford on Brexit.

The turmoil and safe haven buying drove the gold price from $1,257 to $1,367 by July 8th. Silver jumped from $17.32 to $20.31 over the same period.

July 8th: Stock markets shrugged off the turmoil following the Brexit vote. Two days of heavy selling immediately after Brexit were followed by relentless buying.

Only investors were split. Some bought risk assets like stocks, figuring the hysteria surrounding Brexit was overdone.

Others bought safe haven assets including Treasuries and metals. They saw European banks in a lot of trouble. Italian banks needed a bailout and much larger banks – Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse – were signaling the possibility of collapse as their share prices traded below the 2008 crisis lows.

Cue the next U.S. employment report. This time the BLS puts out a blockbuster number that beats expectations by a mile. That report and the continuing rally in stocks undermine interest in safe haven assets. People once again start whispering about the Fed raising interest rates. Metals and bonds both drifted lower.

So what have we learned? World events are unpredictable – perhaps even more so lately. And, in bull markets some of the biggest moves happen suddenly, when people least expect it. Blink and you’ve missed it. So you just have to hang on to your convictions, and your position, even when worry sets in.

A New Asset Class Worth Owning

‘Bitcoin’ is on a tear away rally. Its’ performance, over the last year, has been outstanding and it has outperformed most ‘asset classes’, by a wide margin. It is probably the only asset class which beats out both gold and silver, in 2016. Why is it shooting into outer space?

42044 a

People look at alternate asset classes when their confidence in traditional assets fades. Since the beginning of the year, both the stock and the commodity markets have been on a roller coaster ride while catching both the bulls and the bears, on the wrong side.

 

The macroeconomic situation of the world does not give confidence to the astute investors which is evident by the return of the legendary George Soros, who has come out of retirement to short the overblown markets. Similarly, other hedge fund managers are stocking up on gold, which supports our view that a ‘financial crisis’ is right around the corner.

The “Brexit” results have also opened up a possibility of another round of easing by the central banks, around the world. The Bank of England will most likely resort to an easing schedule during the next meeting which will be followed by the European Central Bank and the FED. Post victory in the elections, the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is likely to push the Bank of Japan to announce another round of ‘easing’.

Since the last ‘financial crisis’, the combined central banks have pumped massive amounts of money into the system and they continue to do so, at a rapid pace, nonetheless, the world is closer to a ‘financial crisis’ than ever before.

42044 b

The FED’s money printing policy had led the commodity Guru Jim Rogers to remark: “The FED will continue to print money until there are no trees left in America.”

‘Bitcoin’ is doing the opposite of central banks:

Compare this with the cryptocurrency ‘bitcoin’. Unlike the traditional currencies, the ‘Bitcoin’ has an upper limit of 21 million coins, post which no more Bitcoins can be mined.

Every subsequent mining will become difficult and will reduce the reward associated with mining each block. Satoshi Nakamoto programmed that post-mining of 210,000 blocks, the rewards will be halved.

Initially, the reward was 50 ‘Bitcoins’ for every block, which was halved by the end of 2012, at which time the reward was reduced to 25 ‘Bitcoins’ per block.

The next round of halving took place, last week, when the rewards were reduced to 12.5 ‘Bitcoins’ per block.

While the central banks have been on a printing spree, the ‘Bitcoin’ is on a tightening route which boosts its’ price, as is visible in its’ sharp rise, this year.

A few miners will find it difficult to continue mining at the halved rewards which is likely to slow down new mining as halving will continue, in the future.

“The block halving will dramatically decrease the bitcoin being added as we approach 75 percent of all bitcoin issued. People understand that in this world of ever expanding assets and printing of money, we have something that’s fixed and limited in issuance. It gives a decent alternative for people who want to hold assets that can have sustained purchasing power,” stated Bobby Lee, Chief Executive of BTCC which is one of the largest’ bitcoin’ exchanges, in the world, based in China reports CNBC.

I recently watch a fantastic TEDX talk on Bitcoin and digital currencies and how they are changing the world, financial systems, and lives in huge way, and this is only the tip of the iceberg. This TEDX Talk makes so much logical sense why bitcoin and other currencies are so important for us as individual’s – Watch Video

However, the ‘Bitcoins’ volatility has dropped dramatically over the past few years with the lowest linear level of volatility seen since is this asset class started. It has become easier to use for trading, purchasing and using for purchases. I am presently only highlighting that readers will do well to keep an eye on ‘Bitcoins’ and other crypto/digital currencies, along with gold and silver.

In fact, I have been researching the digital wallet solution where I can purchase many up and coming digital currencies within one location as a NEW ASSET class for my portfolio. Why? Because I firmly believe the masses will slowly migrate their money into various digital currencies a safe haven store of wealth and for ease of use. Payments can be made with your mobile phone to anyone, anywhere in the world and for any amount with ZERO fees/costs, and in many cases it cannot be traced.

Sir John Templeton, the legendary mutual fund manager and founder of Templeton Group, said:

“Invest in many different places – there is safety in numbers.”

So in short, I will share with you in future articles and as a subscriber to my trading and investing newsletter exactly which digital wallet, and digital currencies I will be buying and interested in learning more about as the world and financial systems evolve. When the time is right to invest my followers will know.

also:

Michael Campbell’s Live From The Trading Desk – Key Reversals

We Are Witnessing The Greatest Dichotomy In The History Of Financial Markets

Interest rates are now hitting record-lows while stocks hit record-highs; this has never happened before. Nor should it ever happen.

You see, changes in interest rates are typically a very good economic indicator, forecasting future growth and inflation. In recently plunging to new, all-time lows, they have taken out the lows set during the Great Depression. In other words, the bond market is saying the prospects for the economy are not very good and possibly very dire.

CnFx59wVIAA yk4

….continue reading HERE

also:

Michael Campbell’s commentary on The Dominant Driver of Capital World Wide

The Terrifying $2 Quadrillion Monster Is Now Totally Out Of Control

KWN-Greyerz-II-7172016

With the price of gold and silver surging once again, today the man who has become legendary for his predictions on QE, historic moves in currencies, and major global events, warned that the terrifying $2 quadrillion monster is now totally out of control.

Egon von Greyerz:  “The central banks are leading the world into a black hole and have no idea what a disaster they have created. What initially seemed like a nice money spinner for the private bankers in 1913 when the Fed was created, has resulted in a $2 quadrillion (at least) monster that is now totally out of control…

…continue reading HERE

related:

Michael Campbell’s commentary on The Dominant Driver of Capital World Wide