Asset protection

Big Names Bailing

dollThe list of heavy hitters who are saying bad things about this world and its financial markets — while acting aggressively on their pessimism — is growing to alarming proportions. A few examples:

Stan Druckenmiller: The bull market is exhausted; move to gold

(MineWeb) – Legendary investor Stan Druckenmiller, founder of Duquesne Capital Management LLC, told the Sohn Investment Conference in New York last week that he is bullish on gold and bearish on the stock market. Gold, he told the conference, “is our largest currency allocation.”

Druckenmiller recommended that investors sell their equity holdings. “The bull market is exhausting itself,” he told the conference. A major factor has been the Federal Reserve’s easy money policy, which has resulted in “reckless” corporate behavior.

Growing corporate debt is increasingly used for financial engineering, rather than in R&D that could lead to productivity improvements, Druckenmiller said. According to him, from 2012 to 2015, use of debt for U.S. nonfinancial firms for stock buybacks and M&A increased from $1.25 trillion to $2 trillion, while debt for R&D and office equipment grew from $1.55 trillion to only $1.8 trillion.

“The corporate sector today is stuck in a vicious cycle of earnings management, questionable allocation of capital, low productivity, declining margins and growing indebtedness,” Druckenmiller added.

The slowing Chinese economy as another reason to sell equities, according to Druckenmiller. He believes that stimulus measures by China have “aggravated the overcapacity in the economy.” While he had hope two years ago that the Chinese were willing to accept the tradeoff of a slowdown to gain reform, the Chinese “have opted for another investment-focused fiscal stimulus, which may buy them some time but will exacerbate their problem. They do not need more debt and more houses.”

Instead, Druckenmiller has made a move to gold. “It has traded for 5,000 years and for the first time has a positive carry in many parts of the globe as bankers are now experimenting with the absurd notion of negative interest rates,” he said. “Some regard it as a metal, we regard it as a currency, and it remains our largest currency allocation,” he added. Among his investments are holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust.

A Bearish George Soros Is Trading Again

(Fox Business) – Worried about the outlook for the global economy and concerned that large market shifts may be at hand, the billionaire hedge-fund founder and philanthropist recently directed a series of big, bearish investments, according to people close to the matter.

Soros Fund Management LLC, which manages $30 billion for Mr. Soros and his family, sold stocks and bought gold and shares of gold miners, anticipating weakness in various markets. Investors view gold as a haven during times of turmoil.

Mr. Soros’s recent hands-on approach reflects a gloomier outlook than many. His worldview darkened over the past six months as economic and political issues in China, Europe and elsewhere have become more intractable. While the U.S. stock market has inched back toward records after troubles early this year and Chinese markets have stabilized, Mr. Soros said he remains skeptical of the Chinese economy, which is slowing.

The fallout from any unwinding of Chinese investments likely will have global implications, Mr. Soros said.

“China continues to suffer from capital flight and has been depleting its foreign currency reserves while other Asian countries have been accumulating foreign currency,” Mr. Soros said in an email. “China is facing internal conflict within its political leadership, and over the coming year this will complicate its ability to deal with financial issues.”

Mr. Soros also argues that there remains a good chance the European Union will collapse under the weight of the migration crisis, continuing challenges in Greece and a potential exit by the United Kingdom from the EU.

“If Britain leaves, it could unleash a general exodus, and the disintegration of the European Union will become practically unavoidable, ” he said. Still, Mr. Soros said recent strength in the British pound is a sign that a vote to exit the EU is less likely.

Mr. Soros’s bearish firm bought over 19 million shares of Barrick Gold Corp. in the first quarter, according to securities filings, making it the firm’s largest stockholding at the end of the quarter. That position has gained more than $90 million since the end of the first quarter. Soros Fund Management also bought a million shares of miner Silver Wheaton Corp. in the first quarter, a position that has increased 28% so far in the second quarter.

The last time Mr. Soros became closely involved in his firm’s trading: 2007, when he became worried about housing and placed bearish wagers over two years that netted more than $1 billion of gains.

If the Markets Crash Then Carl Icahn Could Win Big

(Barrons) – If financial markets crash, one of the biggest beneficiaries could be billionaire investor Carl Icahn.

An investment fund run by the 80-year-old Icahn had a net short position of 149% at the end of the first quarter. Icahn is considerably more bearish than he was at the end of 2015, when the fund’s net short position was 25%. A year ago, the fund had a net long position of 4%. It’s rare to see a fund outside a dedicated short fund with such a large bearish stance.

Asked about the big bearish stance, Icahn Enterprises CEO Keith Cozza said on the conference call that “Carl has been very vocal in recent weeks in the media” about his negative views. “We’re much more concerned about the market going down 20% than we are it going up 20%. And so the significant weighting to the short side reflects that.” Icahn was not on the call.

The Sam Zell Indicator – Time to Get Out of Real Estate?

(Value Walk) – Talk about exquisite timing.

Even today, a decade after the fact, the leveraged buyout of Equity Office Properties Trust remains one of the largest of all time: $36 billion for nearly 600 office buildings in New York, Washington D.C. and dozens of the nation’s largest cities.

But in late 2006, some wondered if the billionaire who sold the REIT was being a little rash. After all, the real estate boom was in full swing, and the S&P 500 was primed to hit new all-time highs. “Is he cashing out too early?” asked a Bloomberg headline when the deal was announced.

We all know the answer, of course.

Billionaire Sam Zell deftly sidestepped the coming real estate carnage. Then, with prices at generational lows a few years later, Zell bought hundreds of apartment complexes at dirt-cheap prices.

And today? Well, that’s the ominous part…

Once again, Zell is selling his real estate holdings. Last fall, he unloaded a quarter of his portfolio, buildings totaling about 23,000 rental apartments, to Starwood Capital Group for more than $5 billion.

Zell next sold off apartment buildings in South Florida and Denver, with complexes in Phoenix, Boston and other metro areas expected to be sold before the year is out.

“No one has ever accused me of not being a realist,” Zell told CNBC’s talking heads recently.

Of course for every seller there has to be a buyer, so to the extent that these guys are bearish, an equal amount of optimistic capital disagrees with their assessment. Still, between Soros, Druckenmiller, Icahn and Zell there’s about a thousand years of successful, audacious experience, so at a minimum their sudden bearishness should be a comfort to smaller players who have reached the same conclusion.

The fact that they see gold as the antidote to crashing financial markets is also reassuring for long-suffering gold bugs.

If these and the several other big names now saying scary things (see Bill Gross’s supernova comments) are right, the short stocks/long gold trade is finally about to pay off.

What’s Next For Gold

Ace analyst, Martin Murenbeld spells out where gold’s going. You may be very surprised how far he thinks gold is going to move given what he thinks is happening with interest rates, confidence in government and the US Dollar

Don’t miss Victor’s Live From The Trading Desk where he elaborates on the sentiment shift that occurred last week, also spells out his specific positions on the CDN Dollar, Oil and Gold

Janet-Yellen-with-gold-bars

 

 

The 3 Most Read Articles Of This Week

Screen Shot 2016-06-11 at 7.49.39 AM1. Time To Confront Economic Extremists

     by Michael Campbell

Environment Canada has said that if the Oil Sands were completely shut down, carbon emissions would be cut by an infinitesimal 12/100th’s of 1 percent! Seems like a timely moment for a proper cost/benefit analysis of climate change action.

….read more HERE

2. Jim Rogers: What’s coming will be ‘worse than anything we’ve seen in our lifetimes

Two thirds of the families in the US are now invested in the stock market compared to three percent in the great crash of 1929.

….continue reading HERE

3. Gold Stocks: Be Prepared

    by Rambus Chartology

There are two patterns I’m watching very closely in here on the HUI which will be a proxy for the rest of the PM stock indexes.

….more HERE

 

Revenge of the dollar

crude samples reuters 2-1Crude oil prices are struggling as global markets get fearful about the future causing safe haven buying in Treasuries and the U.S. dollar. The massive comeback in crude oil is put on hold as traders fear everything from a Brexit vote to the Fed as well as dire predictions about the economy from none other than George Soros and “Bond King” Bill Gross.

Soros may be a diabolical genius. He spent huge money to put left leaning and socialist governments in place and then made huge bets against their economies as the leftist socialist policies inevitably fail. Then Soros made billions as he profits from the ruination. Genius! Soros kind of reminds me of the pale-faced and cloaked Emperor of the Galactic Empire as he bets big on  and selling stocks.

Of course the gold bet, while pulling back on the weak dollar, was strong yesterday. Safe haven buying ahead of the Brexit vote and fear was a major factor. Still, as the Wall Street Journalpoints out, “Front-month Comex gold futures have been among the best-performing major asset classes in financial markets this year, up about 20% as of Thursday. But those gains have been dwarfed by the surge in many gold-related securities, the latest sign of the topsy-turvy trading across markets in 2016 that for now has transformed some of the least-beloved investments on Wall Street into top performers.”

Yet, it isn’t just Lord Darth Soros that is raising fears of doom and gloom, it is also Bill Gross. Gross, manager of the $1.4 billion Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund, said bonds were the “short of a lifetime” is now doubling down by saying that, $10 trillion of negative rate bonds is a supernova that will explode one day.

This could happen in a galaxy that is not that far, far away.

If these dire predictions of a global economic collapse do not come to fruition, then the oil supply demand story looks a lot tighter. Not only will these fears slow down global markets but fear may also slow more energy investment. So assuming that global stock markets can avoid a total meltdown, then today’s Baker Hughes rig count number will be a major factor for oil’s direction. (Ed Note: Rig count posted 40 minutes ago – US oil rig count rises for 2nd straight week, up 3 rigs to 328)

Last week Baker Hughes said that the U.S. crude oil rig count rose by nine to 325 rigs. That was the first time that the oil rig count rose in 11 weeks. Of course, while the jump was up 2.8% week-over-week, it is still down 49.4% from a year ago.

Yet, it was the natural gas rigs that should raise real concerns. Last week Baker Hughes’s reported that the U.S. natural gas rig count fell by five rigs to 82 rigs down 63.1 from a year ago. This drop in rig counts may be reflecting what could be a substantial drop in U.S. production as evidenced by yesterday’s shocking natural gas weekly supply report. The EIA reported that natural gas in storage rose 65 billion cubic feet for the week ended June 3. That was below the average rise of 80 billion cubic feet expected by analysts polled by S&P Global Platts. This fall is disturbing because it suggests that natural gas production is falling at a time when demand is expected to shatter records.

Andrew Weissman of EBW AnalyticsGroup is predicting that in four weeks from now, the year-over-year natural gas surplus will likely have fallen another 100 Bcf, demand will probably have increased by 4.5 Bcf/d and production could have easily posted a further 0.5-1.0 Bcf/d decline. He is warning that this is a “bullish concoction — combined with enduring high levels of coal displacement — that could result in injections falling to 20-30 Bcf or lower, exerting significant further upward pressure on NYMEX natural gas futures. For the remainder of the 2016 injection season, the year-over-year core natural gas supply/demand balance — even after adjusting for coal displacements – projected to tighten by 5.6 Bcf/d. He said that low natural gas prices have taken the legs out from under coal markets, with 2016 likely to post the largest annual production decline on record.”

In Illinois, a state that heavily relies on natural gas, will have to rely on it even further. Exelon Corporation — the nation’s largest nuclear power supplier — announced it would have to close two of the state’s best-performing plants. It has said that the Clinton Power Station will close next June and the Quad Cities Generating Station will close a year later. Despite their high scores, they have apparently lost $800 million over the past seven years according to Clean Technology. It is very possible that other plants will follow and that could raise demand even further in the coming years.

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented by The PRICE Futures Group is from sources believed to be reliable and all information reported is subject to change without notice.

About the Author

Phil Flynn is the Senior energy analyst at The PRICE Futures Group and a Fox Business Network contributor. He is one of the world’s leading market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders, and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline, and energy markets. His precise and timely forecasts have come to be in great demand by industry and media worldwide and his impressive career goes back almost three decades, gaining attention with his market calls and energetic personality as writer of The Energy Report.

Related: Martin Armstong’s latest on oil: Oil Bursts Through Resistance – Next Stop $69-$70

Infographic: Vancouver Real Estate Mania

The story of a humble 86-year-old home in Vancouver’s Point Grey neighbourhood was widely circulated by national media outlets and became a lightning rod for local frustration with skyrocketing property values.

The “knockdown”, with its rotting walls and $2.4 million asking price, perfectly underscored how crazy the region’s overheated housing market had gotten. 

A month later, the house was sold for $80,000 above its asking price, rekindling public outrage.

How did Vancouver reach this point?

This infographic’s purpose is to connect the dots between Vancouver’s history of speculation, demographic waves, public policy, and external pressures that have all had a hand in shaping today’s hot real estate market in the city.

Let’s start at the very beginning…

vancouver-real-estate-mania