Gold & Precious Metals

  1. From a technical, fundamental, and seasonal perspective, the current gold price correction is exactly what “the golden doctor has ordered”.
  2. Please  click here now. Double-click to enlarge this beautiful gold daily chart.
  3. Note the position of the Stochastics oscillator at the bottom of the chart. It’s nearing oversold territory, as the gold price meanders calmly down towards key support that begins near $1225.
  4. The decline is not violent. It’s orderly and calm. I would call the price action idyllic. 
  5. To understand why the correction is so mellow, please  click here now. The SPDR fund (GLD-NYSE) tonnage rose again yesterday, to yet another multi-year high!
  6. The price correction is being met with consistent institutional buying. I’ve predicted that gold will transition into an accepted asset for mainstream money managers. 
  7. That will reduce volatility for investors, and an atmosphere of confidence and happiness will quickly permeate most of the Western gold community.
  8. Please  click here now. Double-click to enlarge this monthly gold chart. As gold declined towards the key $1228 – $1045 support zone in 2013, I labelled that zone as a massive buying area for gold investors.
  9. Gold spent about two and a half years in that price area, and then it charged up towards the first key resistance at $1307 – $1320. 
  10. From a purely technical perspective, a pullback towards the $1228 support zone is absolutely healthy and expected at this point in time.
  11. The SPDR fund tonnage would not be rising, and the price action would not be as gentle as it is, if major institutions were sellers now. They are buyers, and as the price drifts towards the $1228 area, I expect them to continue to buy, and so I expect the price action to continue to be calm and orderly.
  12. Commerzbank reports that ETF holdings rose 19 of the past 20 days, and are up almost 90 tons just since the start of May.
  13. Essentially, the orderly gold price decline is being created by a combination of soft demand in India versus strong Western buying. 
  14. Once the monsoon season arrives in India (in about a month), I expect the gold price to begin rising again, as buyers there return to the market with size that is large enough to send shock waves throughout the Western gold community.
  15. Please  click here now. As robots replace human workers, governments are beginning to study the merits of a basic income for their citizens. 
  16. Many citizens are also clearly advocating the idea, and the idea is likely to involve a fair amount of money printing. That’s good news for gold. 
  17. It’s still early in the “basic income” game, but I’ve predicted that the failure of QE to stimulate inflation will bring government orchestrated wage inflation and moderate gold revaluation.
  18. Please  click here now. I’ve also argued that traditional central bank policy can’t work with the current levels of government size and debt. 
  19. The influential Barron’s business newspaper suggests that the Indian government may be looking to load the country’s central bank with money printers. If that happens, I expect Indian citizen gold demand to essentially do a “moon shot”.
  20. Please  click here now. Double-click to enlarge this GDX weekly chart. The price action during this gold stock correction is as orderly as the bullion correction, and that’s very positive.
  21. A light pullback is in play from the $27 area resistance zone. The uptrend line has been penetrated, but there hasn’t been any violent price action on the downside. 
  22. It’s important to remember that the gold sector rally caught most analysts in the gold community by surprise. The buying has come from very strong hands. That means they will engage in only light profit booking rallies, and buy aggressively on pullbacks.
  23. For GDX, I’m predicting that enormous institutional buying will appear in the $20 area.
  24. In the big picture, more governments are trying to turn their central banks into ATM machines. There are forecasts for bumper crops in India, due to a great monsoon season. Relentless institutional buying of gold stocks and bullion is in play. This price correction should be viewed as a spectacular buying opportunity!

Thanks! 

Cheers
st

related: Gold Stocks Following Bull Analogs

May 24, 2016
Stewart Thomson  
Graceland Updates
website: www.gracelandupdates.com

Nope, This Is What Is Strangling the Economy

How about 454 laws governing towels, 652 regulations for coffee and 91 regulations for showers – and that’s just in the service sector. You won’t believe some of the regulation that suffocate life in Europe.

Related: Want to know why there’s still no recovery in the Canadian economy after almost 3 years? Well then It’s Story Time

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How to Overcome Trading Emotion

Tyler highlights seven Ways to Take Emotion Out of Trading plus using his favorite scan for finding long term position trades presents two stocks that look like they can outperform in the months ahead. 

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perspectives commentary

  • In This Week’s Issue:

    – Stockscores Webinars – Three this week!
    – Stockscores’ Market Minutes Video – How to Trade Reward for Risk
    – Stockscores Trader Training – How to Overcome Trading Emotions
    – Stock Features of the Week – Stockscores Simple Weekly

    Webinar – Saturday’s recording plus three coming this week
    I did a webinar this Saturday which focused on three of my trading strategies, I think it is a great way to understand the process and time required to apply my approach.

    You can watch a video of this webinar on Youtube by clicking here.

    Three more webinars this week:

    Monday – How to Grow Your Retirement Portfolio
    6pm – 7pm PT (9pm – 10pm ET)

    Thursday – How to Make Stock Trading a Career
    6pm – 7pm PT (9pm – 10pm ET)

    Saturday – How to Get the Most Out of Stockscores.com
    11am PT (2:00 pm ET)

    These webinars are all free, register for them by clicking here.

    Stockscores Market Minutes Video – How to Trade Reward for Risk
    Can buying a stock at a higher price actually be more profitable? Yes it can, this week I show you how.Click Here to Watch To get instant updates when I upload a new video, subscribe to the Stockscores YouTube Channel

    Trader Training – How to Overcome Trading Emotion
    I think that many traders have a hard time believing that they can make money by buying a stock and waiting. Most of us are not taught to make our money work for us but instead that we must work for our money. Go to a job, put in the time and you get a pay check. Work hard, your pay checks will grow. But the thought that you can make money by putting your feet up is a difficult thing for most to grasp.

    With that mental programming, most of us have difficulty holding on to our strong stocks and letting the profits grow. If we buy a stock at $1 and it goes up to $1.20 in a couple of days we are likely to sell. In some ways we think of this fast return as good luck, not much different than buying a winning lottery ticket. We have a fear that someone is going to figure out that we have benefited from a mistake and so we better get out now before we get discovered.

    This thinking is strengthened when we own a marginal stock and it goes down as quickly as it went up. If we take a marginal trade we should expect marginal results but somehow we only remember the negative feeling of watching a paper profit turn in to a loss. We tell ourselves that next time we will sell at the first sign of weakness and crystallize the gain. Avoiding pain is human nature.

    Our next trade is of higher quality but we sell it on a short term weakness and lock in a quick but relatively small profit. While lost in self-congratulations we realize that someone named Murphy is writing the laws of trading and we watch the stock march ever higher with us eating the stock’s dust. We have jumped off of a high speed bus that is headed for Profit City.

    So what is behind this destructive behavior? It is that deep routed emotional response to danger that keeps us out of trouble but also makes us avoid a greater feeling of fulfillment.

    Fear is what makes us sell our winners too early and hold our losers too long.

    The best traders are not afraid of holding on to strong stocks, they are afraid of holding on to losing stocks. What do you do?

    If you are a normal human being, you do the opposite. Think about the last loser that you owned. As the stock fell lower and lower, what was it that you told yourself over and over?

    “It will bounce back eventually, I will just be patient.”

    What your subconscious mind was really saying was, “It is much too painful to sell this loser and see that loss of my hard earned capital. I will hold on with the hope that it goes back to what I paid for it and then I will sell.” And of course, it continued lower because there was something wrong with the company and it deserved to go lower.

    So what can be done to fight our destructive minds? How can we program ourselves to hold on to our winners and dump the losers? How can we trade without fear?

    Here are my Seven Ways to Take Emotion Out of Trading:

    Trade Quality
    Our fears are confirmed when we enter marginal trades. If you only trade the best opportunities you will trade less but you will have greater success. This will put you on the road to fearless trading and help you to simplify the trading approach. Write down your rules and do nothing if every rule is not satisfied. When you consider a stock, look for a reason to avoid the trade. If you can’t find one then you have a trade worth taking.

    Buy With Confidence
    The rules that you trade with have to have a foundation of success. You have to believe in your rules or you won’t believe in holding the stock through the shakeout periods in the longer term up trend. Analyze and test the strategy until you have proven to yourself that it works. Then trade it slowly without a lot of risk so you can gain a greater level of confidence that it works.

    Don’t Watch the Scoreboard
    Sports fans don’t spend a lot of time watching the scoreboard during a game, it only matters when the game is over. In trading, the scoreboard is the profit and loss figure for your account. If you focus on the scoreboard it is likely that you will lose sight of what is happening in the game. As a technical trader, all that matters to me is what the chart is telling me.

    Plan Your Losses
    Before you enter a trade, figure out what needs to happen for you to consider the trade a loser. For me, that is a move through chart support; I plan to exit the trade when the stock goes through a psychological floor price on the chart. Understanding where that point requires some experience and knowledge but once you know how to identify support on the chart, plan your losses.

    Plan the Trade
    I find it helpful to predict pull backs. My rational side knows that stocks cannot go straight up and that they must suffer pullbacks to recharge buyer interest and shake out weak holders. My emotional side feels fear when those pull backs happen. If I plan my trade and build in expectations for the counter trend pull backs I can deal with them better and have a greater chance of not succumbing to the fear when they do.

    Don’t Fall in Love
    I don’t want to know too much about what a company is doing because I have found that the more I like a stock the more likely I am to not listen to the message of the market. There is a lot of bias in the information that we receive about companies and what they are doing. The ultimate arbiter of truth is the market itself; we should have a greater faith in the opinions of thousands of market participants than a few biased sources of information.

    Tolerate Risk
    Without risk, there is no potential for return. To avoid trading with fear we have to be comfortable with the risk. If not, we will let fear guide our decisions and those decisions will probably be wrong. Therefore, do not take more risk on a trade than you are comfortable losing. Plan your losses based on how much you are willing to lose and let that determine the size of your positions.

    The Profit is in the Patience
    When a trade is working, let it work for you. A business owner does not fire her best employee. A hockey coach does not send his best player to the minor leagues. A company does not stop making their best products. Hang on to your best stocks with the same attitude. Hold the stock until there is a rational reason to exit the trade rather than selling because it feels good. If you are taking quality trades and trading without fear, you will feel better over the long run.

    The time to get started on your reprogramming is now. Don’t expect to break habits built up over a life time in a couple of days. The battle against your fears is one that takes time win but with determination you can do it.

This week, I ran the Stockscores Simple Weekly market scan for both the US and Canada. This is my favorite scan for finding long term position trades. Here are two names that look like they can outperform in the months ahead.

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1. T.CAE
T.CAE has been trending sideways under $15.50 resistance since 2014 but is now breaking out of that range with strong volume this week. Support at $14.50.

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2. LOW
LOW is breaking out of a cup and handle pattern on the daily and has a strong weekly chart with support at $75. Historical yield is 1.42%

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related from Tyler Bolhorn:10 Key Thoughts To Remember Now

References

Disclaimer
This is not an investment advisory, and should not be used to make investment decisions. Information in Stockscores Perspectives is often opinionated and should be considered for information purposes only. No stock exchange anywhere has approved or disapproved of the information contained herein. There is no express or implied solicitation to buy or sell securities. The writers and editors of Perspectives may have positions in the stocks discussed above and may trade in the stocks mentioned. Don’t consider buying or selling any stock without conducting your own due diligenc

How To Become An Opportunity Magnet

“Don’t go around saying the world owes you a living. The world owes you nothing. It was here first.”  – Mark Twain
 
opmOn the Offense for Opportunity
Success requires taking frequent small structured steps, while seizing infrequent large opportunities. These large opportunities are usually the events in our life that transform us, while the daily rigorous and structured steps we take prepare us for these opportunities. The steps are defense; the opportunities are offence.
 
When these opportunities appear, it requires bold and courageous action to seize them. The trick is to be prepared, recognize opportunities and don’t let them slip by.  These big opportunities occur infrequently, perhaps only a couple of times a year. When you see it and it looks good, pounce on it! Do not procrastinate or be fearful.
 
The Opportunity Mindset
Keep your hunt for opportunity at the front of your mind. Have you ever had the experience of buying a new car, on the way home from the dealership, it looks like every second car on the road is the same as the one you just bought? Your brain has tuned in to that particular car, so that’s what you see. Opportunities are like that: there are lots of them, but your brain must be trained and in tune to spot them.
 
Here are the things you can do daily to become more opportunity-oriented:
Recognize that virtually every significant opportunity you will encounter will be created from an idea or hunch your initiate. Nobody will deliver you a blue ribbon deal. So don’t wait for the phone to ring or someone to knock on the door, go find it or create it yourself.
 
Become a specialized insider. Most of the best opportunities come from specialized knowledge or special circumstances. It will be rare that you will be an outsider or generalist, and just find an opportunity that no one else has seen. It will likely come from an association with your business, practice, hobby, family, or some activity that you are involved. So stay super busy and involved in serious projects.
 
Look at the world differently. Be curious and probe. Try to understand what is causing problems in the world, and how you can fix them. If you see something that seems out of the ordinary, dig a little deeper and see if an opportunity exists. Ignore the naysayers.
 
Treat problems as potential opportunities. I have seen many circumstances where some of the best financial deals, particularly real estate deals, are wrapped in the cloak of a problem. For instance, a poor tenant situation, a run-down home in a good area, or a broken business with phenomenal technical expertise and customer list all have upsides. Embrace the difficult.
 
Never take your foot off the accelerator. If you suspect an opportunity – do not procrastinate, do not even wait one day or one minute. Pursue it immediately and aggressively.
 
Preserve and build the opportunity muscle.Even though many leads will be a dead end, get into the habit of pursuing leads. Often you will find you can dig something up else in the process.
 

Get Ready To Bow To Canada’s Aristocratic Ruling Class

Frank Herbert warned us that “Governments, if they endure, always tend increasingly towards aristocratic forms. No government in history has been known to evade this pattern”. We’ve gotten to that point in Canada where the entire function of Government is to act exclusively in the interests of the ruling class. Recent examples….

aynrelated: Michael’s How You’ll Know Your Society Is Doomed comes from from Ayn Rand and is particularly pertinent considering the political shenanigans taking place in Ottawa and Washington these days