Personal Finance

Hot CDN Real Estate About to Cool

This chart shows the average detached housing prices for Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Toronto, Ottawa* and Montréal* In October 2013 only Toronto and Ottawa rallied into the seasonal highs and pushed prices back up to resistance and in the case of Toronto posted new record prices. The daring bids are up against the seasonal shift towards slowing sales and shrinking inventory through the winter into February as can be seen on the new rebuilt VancouverCalgary and Toronto charts.

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Toronto prices took flight again just missing a repeat of the trifecta set in May 2013. Seasonally we can expect sales to drop now into next spring. 

VANCOUVER average single family detached prices in October 2013 came in exactly flat M/M and remain 13.4% ($142,200) below their peak set last April 2012 (Vancouver Chart). Vancouver total residential sales are working on completing the second step down since the rush out of the March 20089 pit of gloom. Average strata units continue to trade at 3Q 2007 prices as total residential inventory continues dropping typically hitting a seasonal low in the spring. If you are thinking of buying a Vancouver Condo as an Investment, see my Vancouver Condo Yield Case Study and now that you have the September data, where do you think Vancouver SFD prices will be one year hence? VOTE HERE.
 
CALGARY average detached house prices in October 2013 met with more resistance as did condo prices (Calgary Chart) just below the June 2013 peak (Plunge-O-Meter), while Townhouse prices zoomed to a new record high to the degree that Calgarians are now willing to trade one house for only 1.4 townhouses as total residential inventory drops into 2009 levels. Alberta remains a different country with respect to record high earnings and the  sentiment in Calgary is the least bearish (34% bears to bulls) of the 3 markets polled with only 21% of the survey thinking Calgary SFD prices will be 20% lower in 12 months. What do you think? VOTE HERE.

EDMONTON average detached house prices in October 2013 continued rolling over (Canada Chart) and are 6.7% below the May 2007 peak SFD price (Plunge-O-Meter).
 
TORONTO average detached house prices and condo prices in the GTA in October 2013 zoomed to new record highs just missing a repeat of the trifecta set in May 2013 (Toronto Chart). Total residential sales and inventory have already turned down having peaked in the summer. The gap between Vancouver and Toronto SFD housing prices (Vancouver vs Toronto) narrowed to 34% more expensive in Vancouver. The GTA may have appeal to the HNWI as a “safe” haven but the media does not rate Toronto as investment grade. Polled sentiment here continues to suggest that prices will be down another 20% in 12 months. What do you think? VOTE HERE.
 
OTTAWA average detached house prices are not available, instead the chart on this site reflects Ottawa’s average combined residential prices. OREB’s report is sparse and opaque. In October 2013 Ottawa combined residential prices caught a bid and headed back up to resistance  3.1% below the April 2013 April (Plunge-O-Meter).

MONTREAL median (not average) detached house prices in October continued to trade in a range just below the May & June 2013 record price peaks (Canada Chart). In the 2011 Census, Montreal added 6.4% more dwelling units while only adding 5.2% more people. There is no shortage of housing, but there is a shortage of earnings; the Province of Quebec ranks 7th in Canada’s 10 provinces for earnings and printed an unemployment rate of 8.2% in July (0.6% above Ontario’s).

The Terrifying Big Picture

By a 60-Year Market Veteran –

With continued uncertainty in global markets, a 60-year market veteran sent King World News an absolutely incredible piece discussing the terrifying big picture.  He also included some fantastic commentary to go along with seven key charts and illustrations.  Below is six-decade market veteran Ron Rosen’s extraordinary piece.

By Ron Rosen

November 7 (King World News) – “The Terrifying Big Picture”

It’s easy to see that ever since the year 2000 gold bullion has been in a bull market and the S&P 500 has been in a megaphone pattern bear market.  Gold has dramatically increased in price while the S&P 500 has done nothing but go up and down.  The Fed’s QE’s, plus a twist, are placed on the chart of the S&P 500. They inform us of when the Fed believed it had to goose the economy and the markets in order to keep them from collapsing.  OK, but what’s next?  Will gold keep going up?  Will the S&P 500 head down again?

KWN Rosen I 11-7-2013

Well, we now have a pretty good idea that the Fed will continue doing QE’s as far into the future as they can see….

That may or may not be very far.  The general expectation is that if the Fed continues to do QE’s, the Stock averages will continue to move up.  We know that gold is in a long-term bull market.  The S&P 500 and the DJIA, if left on their own, would normally begin a leg E collapse at this time (see right hand side of chart below).

KWN Rosen II 11-7-2013

Continue reading the Ron Rosen piece HERE

45 Seconds to Fiscal Genius – Is it Socialism or Capitalism

capitalism-vs-socialismSocialism builds and capitalism destroys – Hugo Chavez 

or

The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other peoples’ money – Margaret Thatcher 

Ed Note: Take 45 seconds to read the following and decide for yourself:

A Brilliant Example of Socialism’s Achievement

An economics professor at a local college made a statement that he had never failed a single student before, but had recently failed an entire class. That class had insisted that Obama’s socialism worked and that no one would be poor and no one would be rich, a great equalizer.

The professor then said, “OK, we will have an experiment in this class on Obama’s plan”.. All grades will be averaged and everyone will receive the same grade so no one will fail and no one will receive an A…. (substituting grades for dollars – something closer to home and more readily understood by all).

After the first test, the grades were averaged and everyone got a B. The students who studied hard were upset and the students who studied little were happy. As the second test rolled around, the students who studied little had studied even less and the ones who studied hard decided they wanted a free ride too so they studied little.

The second test average was a D! No one was happy. When the 3rd test rolled around, the average was an F.

As the tests proceeded, the scores never increased as bickering, blame and name-calling all resulted in hard feelings and no one would study for the benefit of anyone else.

To their great surprise, ALL FAILED and the professor told them that socialism would also ultimately fail because when the reward is great, the effort to succeed is great, but when government takes all the reward away, no one will try or want to succeed. Could not be any simpler than that.

Here are possibly the 5 key points about such an experiment:

1. You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity.

2. What one person receives without working for, another person must work for without receiving.

3. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else.

4. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it!

5. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them, and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for, that is the beginning of the end of any nation.

More from Martin Armstrong:

Million Mask March

Protesters gather around the world for the Million Mask March in more than 400 cities that were planned to coincide with Guy Fawkes Day in Britain. Just wait until they take 10% of everyone’s account to hand it to the banks. Will the masks come off then? What’s next? IMF proposes forced labor to reduce government deficits and manipulate the high unemployment stats?  It would be nice if these people just for once REALLY understood what is going on behind the curtain.

Commodities Trade Differently & Always Have

Vanc Housing Now Terrifically Un-Popular, Dramatically Less So In Calgary

 

Vancouver 84% bearish – Calgary 33% bearish –Toronto 71% bearish 

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Oct 31/13 Poll based on Sept sales and pricing data: If you ignore the “No Change” and calculate the difference between the total “Ups” and the total “Downs” then the opinions are:

  • Vancouver 84% bearish
  • Calgary 33% bearish
  • Toronto 71% bearish 

Total bearish sentiment ticked down 1% M/M in Vancouver and Calgary. Toronto bearishness dropped 2% M/M

The previous month was:

  • Vancouver 85% bearish
  • Calgary 34% bearish
  • Toronto 73% bearish 

A plurality on this page still opines that a 20% price drop will unfold over the next year.

Polling Results of where you think average Vancouver, Calgary and Toronto single family detached prices will be 1 year from now. Charts going back to Dec 2012 HERE (scroll down a touch)

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Want to give your opinion – go HERE

 

Bubble That Everyone Admits is a Bubble

UnknownThis is one of the few times where the benefactors or professionals who benefit from the bubbles, in this case created by the Federal Reserve, fully and openly acknowledge that stock prices and certain other asset classes are completely divorced from fundamental valuations.

Bubble Comparisons

In the Dot Com Bubble there were portions of investors, mainly the traditional value investors, who voiced concerns regarding actual revenue streams of many of the technology startups, but there was at least a story that could be told that the world was entering a new paradigm with the rise of the internet, and previous valuation models were failing to grasp this new paradigm in technological advancement.

Unanimity & Asset Prices

However, even the most optimistic market participants realize that current asset prices are unsustainable without the continual had of the Federal Reserve. They just will not sell until the Fed stops sending 75, 85, 65 Billion a month in QE stimulus, whatever the light taper number becomes from the Fed at some point. It still is 65 Billion dollars of market injections artificially pushing up asset classes each month regardless of a slight tapering event by the Fed, and given that the market is naturally oriented long anyway, throw in the monthly 401k contributions, and there is no reason to fight the market – thus the bubble continues to build. 

Market Acquisitions

I have discussed valuations with executive management of sectors which have substantially underperformed the broader market, and they are acquisitive companies, and from a valuation standpoint their competitors are too expensive to buy. These are sectors which are up year to date 5 and 10%, well below the broader market, and substantially below the momentum stocks, but these executives will not even consider an acquisition after a thoughtful analysis. 

These are companies with large cash reserves that will not consider an acquisition strategy, so what do they do with this extra cash, just give it back to shareholders in the form of stock buybacks, which is ironic because they are buying their own stock at these same overly exaggerated valuation levels.

This further adds to bubbly stock prices as more stock shares are taken out of the market. Furthermore, this strategy almost guarantees future losses on these shares once the Fed stops supporting asset prices with 85 Billion each month. 

Google vs. Facebook Vying for Global Internet Dominance

Share Buybacks

Sort of like the homebuilders buying their shares back at the top of the housing market, the exact opposite strategy from an underlying valuation standpoint. The correct method is to buy back shares when one thinks that the market is undervaluing the business prospects through a substandard stock price, and not the other way around like currently exists.

If business was so great why aren`t these executives reinvesting this extra cash in the business itself through organic growth? The reason is that there isn`t the actual real demand for goods and services in the economy, and these same companies need to buy back shares to make their earning`s numbers look better than they are due to a sluggish 2% growth economy.

The Federal Reserve

The interesting part is private equity cannot find anything of value to buy, the professionals all openly speak about the inflated prices due to the current bubble, but yet the Federal Reserve is absolutely clueless to the environment. The Federal Reserve might want to take notice when all the major money managers are openly telling the world for all who will listen that the market is a bubble, that maybe they ought to change policy and address the bubble so that the damage from the bubble when it pops is not so crushing that it sends the global economy into a full blown 10-year recession. 

 

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