“We are in a gigantic asset bubble around the world with prices of real estate having risen a lot,” he said. “The high end is at record highs. In the Hamptons, in Mayfair, London, Hong Kong, Singapore, and we have a high inflation overseas, so I think that one day this asset inflation will lead to deflationary collapse one way or the other.”

….Click HERE to watch the full interview

QE was about getting the Stock Markets going

According to the thought-provoking Michael Mauboussin, making an important decision is never easy and making the right decision is even more difficult.

Effective decision making isn’t just about accumulating information and going with what seems to make the most sense. Sometimes, internal biases can impact the way we seek out and process information, polluting the conclusions we reach in the process. 

Mauboussin says it is critical to be conscious of those tendencies and to accumulate the sort of fact-based and unbiased inputs that will result in the highest likelihood that a decision actually leads to the desired outcome. 

In the video below he lays out three steps that can help with this process:

“Of all the pieces I’ve written, the most popular have been the ones having to do with the Great Depression and my time in the Army Air Corp.  Sometimes I wonder whether it’s an advantage or a disadvantage to be my age.  I was born on July 22, 1924, in Lenox Hill Hospital in NYC.  That was long before air conditioning, and my poor mother said that day was the hottest day of the summer.  As for my birth, she said it was one of the most torturous days of her life. 

By the time I was a teenager the Great Depression was in high (or should I call it low) gear.  My teenage years were filled with the sights of long lines of unemployed men waiting in the street outside employment agencies, and of “Hoovervilles” in Central Park, huts made of cardboard boxes and tin cans that sheltered whole families.  Men on the corners of Central Park West were selling apples, and men and women were sleeping under cardboard in the streets of New York.

Yet, I loved New York in those days.  Everything was a nickel, from a pack of gum to a ride on the subway to Coney Island to a ride to the Worlds Fair (1939) out in Queens.  You could buy a hamburger for a nickel at the White Tower or see a double feature movie at the Alden at 66th Street and Broadway for three nickels.  The only trouble was that nickels were hard to come by in the ‘30s, they really were.

I enlisted in the Army in 1942 from Rutgers, where I was a freshman.  The War was on, we were losing, and I wanted to get into it.  The Army told us that we could pick our service.  I picked the Signal Corp.  A few months later I was called up, and the Army apologized — they said that I was going into the infantry instead of the Signal Corp.  Why?  More men were needed in the infantry.  That was their “excuse,” not that they needed one.

After 13 weeks of grueling basic training in Georgia we were told that the Air Force was losing a load of flyers, and that more flyers were urgently needed in the Army Air Corp.  If we could pass the test we could transfer to the Air Force.  I volunteered, much to the anguish of my parents, because in the early days of the war the Army Air Corp was taking a huge number of casualties.  I decided to try for the Air Force anyway, and two of us in the company made it out of the Infantry and into the Army Air Corp.

The rest is a long story, which I talk about from time to time, but the point was that as I look back, I realize that I lost my youth.  Instead of spending happy days in college, I ended up overseas, fighting in the skies over Europe — which was a long way from drinking beer at fraternity parties. 

When I returned to the States after the European war was over, I was to be “redeployed” to the Pacific on a new plane, the A-26 Havoc.  It was a much better bomber than my old B-25, faster, and carrying just a pilot and a bombardier (me).  I was given a 30-day leave, and then it was on to fight the coming great battle against Japan.  I whooped it up on my 30-day leave, on the theory that I had made it through Europe, but my chances of making it through the Pacific as well were, well, they weren’t that great.  So why not raise a bit of hell?

On the 27th day of my 30-day leave, the atomic bombs were dropped on Japan, and Japan surrendered.  Being on leave, I was one of the first to be let out of the armed services.  A day after being discharged, I signed up at NYU on the GI bill.  I was back in college, and eager to make up for lost time.  In two-and-a-half years I got my degree.  I was an ex-officer and a college graduate.  A month later I got my first post-War job at thirty-five dollars a week, working five days a week and a half day on Saturday. 

I look back at those days with mixed feelings.  I really never had what kids today call a “fun youth.”  I know what a great time in college is because son Ryan loved Berkeley and daughter Lauren loved University of Arizona.  I’ve visited both places, and I can see what I missed out on (NYU on those days was a down-to-earth “subway college”), and all I wanted to do was get through it and get my degree.  So I never really had that fabled “college experience.”

I look back at the ‘30s and the ‘40s, and I think, “Well, it was a hell of an experience, I lived through it, but I hope it didn’t color my attitude toward life and the world.”  Of my early years, frankly, they seem more like “survival” than anything else. 

But on the other hand, I know that everything in life is a trade-off.  Those early years allowed me to see that good things can happen and bad things can happen.  Nations can rise and nations can fall.  If anybody in 1943, for instance, had told me that in the year 2003 we would be friends with Germany and Japan, I would have told them that they were out of their minds.  Things change.  Nations change.  Economies change.  Life changes.

Below I show a weekly chart of the US dollar.  This has been a worry of mine for quite some time.  If the dollar breaks down it will be of great concern to all creditors of the US.  After looking like the dollar might breach the blue trendline, it has turned up.  Let’s hope this continues.

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Another of history’s many lessons is that governments under pressure become thieves. And today’s governments are under a lot of pressure.

Before we look at the coming wave of asset confiscations, let’s stroll through some notable episodes of the past, just to make the point that government theft of private wealth is actually pretty common.

• Ancient Rome had a rule called “proscription” that allowed the government to execute and then confiscate the assets of anyone found guilty of “crimes against the state.” After the death of Julius Caesar in 44 BC, three men, Mark Anthony, Lepidus, and Caesar’s adopted son Octavian, formed a group they called the Second Triumvirate and divided the Empire between them. But two rivals, Brutus and Cassius, formed an army with which they planned to take the Empire for themselves. The Triumvirate needed money to fund an army of its own, and decided the best way to raise it was by kicking the proscription process into overdrive. They drew up a list of several hundred wealthy Romans, accused them of crimes, executed them and took their property.

• In the mid-1530s, English king Henry VIII was short of funds, so he seized the country’s monasteries and claimed their property and income for the Crown. As historian G. J. Meyer tells it in The Tudors: The Complete Story of England’s Most Notorious Dynasty:

“By April fat trunks were being hauled into London filled with gold and silver plate, jewelry, and other treasures accumulated by the monasteries over the centuries. With them came money from the sale of church bells, lead stripped from the roofs of monastic buildings, and livestock, furnishings, and equipment. Some of the confiscated land was sold – enough to bring in £30,000 – and what was not sold generated tens of thousands of pounds in annual rents. The longer the confiscations continued, the smaller the possibility of their ever being reversed or even stopped from going further. The money was spent almost as quickly as it flooded in – so quickly that any attempt to restore the monasteries to what they had been before the suppression would have meant financial ruin for the Crown. Nor would those involved in the work of the suppression … ever be willing to part with what they were skimming off for themselves.”

• Soon after the French Revolution in 1789, the new government confiscated lands and other property of the Catholic Church and used the proceeds to back a new form of paper currency called assignats. The resulting money printing binge quickly spun out of control, resulting in hyperinflation and the rise of Napoleon.

• During the US Civil War, Congress passed laws confiscating property used for “insurrectionary purposes” and of citizens generally engaged in rebellion.

• In 1933, in the depths of the Great Depression, president Franklin Roosevelt banned the private ownership of gold and ordered US citizens to turn in their gold. Those who did were paid in paper dollars at the then current rate of $20.67 per ounce. Once the confiscation was complete, the dollar was devalued to $35 per ounce of gold, effectively stealing 70 percent of the wealth of those who surrendered their gold.

• In 1942, after entering World War II, the US moved all Japanese citizens within its borders to concentration camps and sold off their property. The detainees were released in 1945, given $25 and a train ticket home – without being reimbursed for their losses.

Since the 2008 financial crisis, various kinds of capital controls and asset confiscations have become common. A few examples:

• Iceland required that firms seeking to invest abroad get permission from the central bank and that individual Icelanders get government authorization to buy foreign currency or travel overseas.

• Greece pulled funds directly from bank and brokerage accounts of suspected tax evaders, without prior notice or judicial due process.

• Argentina banned the purchase of U.S. dollars for personal savings and required banks to make loans in pesos at rates considerably below the true inflation rate.

• The US Fed proposed that money market funds be allowed to limit withdrawals of customer cash in times of market stress.

• Cyprus, a eurozone country, responded to a series of bank failures by confiscating 47.5% of domestic bank accounts over €100,000.

• Poland in September responded to a budgetary shortfall by confiscating the assets of the country’s private pension funds without offering any compensation.

• Spain was recently revealed to have looted its largest public pension fund, the Social Security Reserve Fund, by ordering it to use its cash to buy Spanish government bonds. Currently 90% of the €65 billion fund had been invested in Spanish sovereign paper, leaving the fund’s beneficiaries dependent on future governments’ ability to manage their finances.

Now for the big one, reported by Automatic Earth on Saturday October 12:

The IMF Proposes A 10% Supertax On All Eurozone Household Savings
This is a story that should raise an eyebrow or two on every single face in Europe, and beyond. I saw the first bits of it on a Belgian site named Express.be, whose writers in turn had stumbled upon an article in French newspaper Le Figaro, whose writer Jean-Pierre Robin had leafed through a brand new IMF report (yes, there are certain linguistic advantages in being Dutch, Canadian AND Québecois). In the report, the IMF talks about a proposal to tax everybody’s savings, in the Eurozone. Looks like they just need to figure out by how much.

The IMF, I’m following Mr. Robin here, addresses the issue of the sustainability of the debt levels of developed nations, Europe, US, Japan, which today are on average 110% of GDP, or 35% more than in 2007. Such debt levels are unprecedented, other than right after the world wars. So, the Fund reasons, it’s time for radical solutions.

The IMF refers to a few studies, like one from 1990 by Barry Eichengreen on historical precedents, one from April 2013 by Saxo Bank chief economist Steen Jakobsen, who saw a 10% general asset tax as needed to repair government debt levels, and one by German economist Stefan Bach, who concluded that if all Germans owning more than €250,000, representing €2.95 trillion in wealth, were “supertaxed” on their assets at a 3.4% rate, the government could collect €100 billion, or 4% of GDP.

French investor site monfinancier.com talks about people close to the Elysée government discussing how a 17% supertax on all French savings over €100,000 would clear all government debt. The site is not the only voice to mention that raising “normal” taxes on either individuals or corporations is no longer viable, since it would risk plunging various economies into recession or depression.

Here’s what the October 2013 IMF report, entitled Fiscal Monitor : Taxing Times, literally says on the topic, in the chapter called:

Taxing Our Way Out Of – Or Into? – Trouble
The sharp deterioration of the public finances in many countries has revived interest in a capital levy, a one-off tax on private wealth, as an exceptional measure to restore debt sustainability. (1) The appeal is that such a tax, if it is implemented before avoidance is possible, and there is a belief that it will never be repeated, does not distort behavior (and may be seen by some as fair).

There have been illustrious supporters, including Pigou, Ricardo, Schumpeter, and, until he changed his mind, Keynes. The conditions for success are strong, but also need to be weighed against the risks of the alternatives, which include repudiating public debt or inflating it away (these, in turn, are a particular form of wealth tax on bondholders that also falls on non-residents).

It should probably be obvious that there is one key sentence here, one which explains why the IMF is seriously considering the capital levy (supertax) option, even if it’s presented as hypothetical:

The appeal is that such a tax, if it is implemented before avoidance is possible, and there is a belief that it will never be repeated, does not distort behavior (and may be seen by some as fair).

It all hangs on the IMF’s notion – or hope – that it can be implemented by stealth, before people have the chance to put their money somewhere else (and let’s assume they’re not thinking of digging in backyards, and leave tax havens alone for now). Also, that after the initial blow, people will accept the tax because they are confident it’s a one-time only thing. And finally, that a sense of justice will prevail among a population, a substantial part of whom will have little, if anything, left to tax.

Some thoughts
Will more countries introduce capital controls or asset confiscations in the next few years? Duh, of course. Debt levels are unmanageable, so they have to be lowered. And there are only three ways to do it: deflationary collapse that wipes out the debt through default, inflation that wipes out the debt by destroying the world’s major currencies, or stealing enough private sector wealth to reset the clock. Option one – depression – is political poison so will be avoided at all costs. Option two is being tried and is failing because the deflationary effect of trillions of dollars of bad debt more or less equals the inflationary impact of trillions of dollars of new currency.

That just leaves door number three, demonize the successful and take what they’ve accumulated. Recall from the historical list that opened this post that governments like to pick on members of society who 1) have lots of money and 2) have lots of enemies or can easily be framed for crimes. This time around it will be “the rich” who are living well at the expense of the rest of us. The trick will be to define “rich” down far enough to make possible the confiscation of middle-class IRAs and 401(K)s, since that’s where the real money is.

Interesting that the build-up to asset confiscation is coinciding with a coordinated take-down of gold and silver, the two assets that will be hardest to steal when the time comes.

The popular take on the current debt ceiling stand-off is that the Tea Party wing of the Republican Party has a delusional belief that it can hit the brakes on new debt creation without bringing on an economic catastrophe. While Republicans are indeed kidding themselves if they believe that their actions will not unleash deep economic turmoil, there are much deeper and more significant delusions on the other side of the aisle. Democrats, and the President in particular, believe that continually taking on more debt to pay existing debt is a more responsible course of action. Even worse, they appear to believe that debt accumulation is the equivalent of economic growth.

If Republicans were to inexplicably prevail, and the federal government were to cut spending so that its expenditures matched its tax revenues (a truly radical idea) the country’s financial mess would be laid bare. The government would have to weigh the relative costs and benefits of making interest payments on Treasury debt (primarily to foreign creditors) or to trim entitlements promised to U.S. citizens. But those are choices we will have to make sooner or later anyway. In fact we should have dealt with these issues years ago. But generations of mechanistic debt ceiling increases have allowed us to perpetually kick the can down the road. What could possibly be gained by doing it again, particularly if it is done with no commitment to change course?

The Democrats’ argument that America needs to pay its bills is just hollow rhetoric. Paying off one’s Visa bill with a new and bigger MasterCard bill can’t be considered a legitimate payment of debt. At best it is a transfer. But in the government’s case, it doesn’t even qualify as that. Treasury debt is primarily bought by the Fed, foreign central banks, and major financial institutions. None of that will change with a debt ceiling increase. We will just go to the same people for greater quantities. So it’s like paying off your Visa card with a bigger Visa card.

According to modern economists, an elimination of deficit spending will immediately cause a dollar for dollar decrease in GDP. For example, if the government stopped sending food stamp payments to poor people, then grocery stores would lose business, employees would be laid off, and the economy would contract. But this one dimensional view fails to appreciate that the purchasing power of the food stamps had to come from somewhere. The government can’t create something from nothing. Taxation transfers purchasing power from people living in the present to other people living in the present. In contrast, borrowing transfers purchasing power from people living in the future to people living in the present. The good news for politicians is that future people don’t vote in current elections (and current voters don’t seem to appreciate the cost to their future selves of current policy).

The Obama Administration has congratulated itself for turning around the contracting economy that it inherited from President Bush. But even if you take the obscenely low official inflation statistics at face value, we only grew at an anemic 1.075% annual pace from 2009 to 2012 (far below the between 3% and 4% that the U.S. averaged post World War II). Sadly, this growth pales in comparison to the accumulation of new debt that we are borrowing from the future.

U.S. GDP is measured at roughly $15 trillion per year. 2% growth means that each year the GDP is approximately $300 billion larger than the prior year. But in the less than five years since Obama took office, the federal government has added, on average, about $1.3 trillion per year in new debt, a pace that is four times higher than the growth. If the deficit were subtracted from GDP, America would be shown to be stuck in a severe recession that Washington can’t acknowledge. But such a reality is more consistent with the dismal job prospects and stagnant incomes experienced by most Americans.

The belief that deficits add to the economy, and that debt can be dealt with in an imaginary future (that never seems to arrive) is the foundation upon which the President can chastise the Republicans as irresponsible suicide bombers. Using this logic, he can argue (with a straight face) that borrowing is the equivalent of paying. That the President can make this delusional argument is not so surprising (no lie too great for the typical politician to attempt). What is alarming is that the media and the public have swallowed it so willingly. As they call for limitless increases in borrowing, Democrats have offered no plan to reduce the current debt and they are unwilling to negotiate with Republicans on that topic. Yet somehow they have been perceived as the party of fiscal responsibility.

While the Republicans have a dismal track record of their own when it comes to budgetary management, it can’t be disputed that the minor dip in that rate of increase in spending that resulted from the recent Sequester, happened only because they dug in on the issue. Without the 2011 debt ceiling drama, there is no chance that any spending would have been touched.

Democrats had warned that the $85 billion in sequestration cuts slated for fiscal year 2013 (about 2% of the Federal budget) would be sufficient to bring on economic Armageddon. But guess what? We survived. Recently, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid continued with such rhetoric by declaring that there are no more cuts to be found anywhere in the $3.8 Trillion dollar federal budget. (Apparently he missed last week’s 60 Minutes piece on the spreading epidemic of federal disability fraud.)

We have to acknowledge what even the Republicans haven’t fully grasped. We are in such a deep debt hole that there is no solution that does not involve serious economic pain. Tea Party Republicans rightly believe that government spending is a drag on economic growth. As a result, they conclude that immediate spending cuts will help with the “recovery”. But they are confusing real economic growth with the delusional expansion created by deficit spending (which is actually damaging the real economy). If they cut the deficit, this phony economy may likely implode and cause widespread distress.

So even though a reduction in government borrowing and spending does help the economy, it won’t feel very helpful tomorrow. The more we borrow and spend today, the more we will suffer tomorrow when the bills come due. Ironically, cutting government spending now helps the economy by allowing the economic adjustment to happen sooner rather than later. But this type of long-term thinking is very difficult for politicians to consider.

Unfortunately our debts don’t leave us much in the way of choices. We can choose to pay now or try to pay later. But the longer we wait the steeper the bill.

Peter Schiff is the CEO and Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital, best-selling author and host of syndicated Peter Schiff Show. 

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