Personal Finance

Words of Wisdom by the late Barton Biggs

This list of Quotations should give anyone a good idea of this extraordinary man’s Investment Philosophy. Biggs, former Morgan Stanley head strategist and research director warned of the dotcom crash. He just died at 79:

  •  “Good information, thoughtful analysis, quick but not impulsive reactions, and knowledge of the historic interaction between companies, sectors, countries, and asset classes under similar circumstances in the past are all important ingredients in getting the legendary ‘it’ right that we all strive so desperately for.”
  •  “[T]here are no relationships or equations that always work. Quantitatively based solutions and asset-allocation equations invariably fail as they are designed to capture what would have worked in the previous cycle whereas the next one remains a riddle wrapped in an enigma. The successful macro investor must be some magical mixture of an acute analyst, an investment scholar, a listener, a historian, a river boat gambler, and be a voracious reader.Reading is crucial. Charlie Munger, a great investor and a very sagacious old guy, said it best: ‘I have said that in my whole life, I have known no wise person, over a broad subject matter who didn’t read all the time — none, zero. Now I know all kinds of shrewd people who by staying within a narrow area do very well without reading. But investment is a broad area. So if you think you’re going to be good at it and not read all the time you have a different idea than I do.’”
  •  “[T]he investment process is only half the battle. The other weighty component is struggling with yourself, and immunizing yourself from the psychological effects of the swings of markets, career risk, the pressure of benchmarks, competition, and the loneliness of the long distance runner.”
  •  “I’ve come to believe a personal investment diary is a step in the right direction in coping with these pressures, in getting to know yourself and improving your investment behavior.”
  •  “As I reflect on this crisis period so stuffed with opportunity but also so full of pain and terror, I am struck with how hard it is to be an investor and a fiduciary.”
  •  “The history of the world is one of progress, and as a congenital optimist, I believe in equities. Fundamentally, in the long run, you want to be an owner, not a lender. However, you always have to bear in mind that this time truly may be different as Reinhart and Rogoff so eloquently preach. Remember the 1930s, Japan in the late 1990s, and then, of course, as Rogoff said once with a sly smile, there is that period of human history known as ‘The Dark Ages and it lasted three hundred years.’”
  • “Mr. Market is a manic depressive with huge mood swings, and you should bet against him, not with him, particularly when he is raving.”
  •  “As investors, we also always have to be aware of our innate and very human tendency to be fighting the last war. We forget that Mr. Market is an ingenious sadist, and that he delights in torturing us in different ways.”
  •  “Buffett, a man, like me, who believes in America and the Tooth Fairy, presents the dilemma best. It’s as though you are in business with a partner who has a bi-polar personality. When your partner is deeply distressed, depressed, and in a dark mood and offers to sell his share of the business at a huge discount, you should buy it. When he is ebullient and optimistic and wants to buy your share from you at an exorbitant premium, you should oblige him. As usual, Buffett makes it sound easier than it is because measuring the level of intensity of the mood swings of your bipolar partner is far from an exact science.”

“Fifty some years ago, Sir Alec Cairncross doodled it best:

A trend is a trend is a trend
But the question is, will it bend?
Will it alter its course
Through some unforeseen force
And come to a premature end?

  •  “Nations, institutions, and individuals always have had and still have a powerful tendency to prepare themselves to fight the last war.”
  •  “[W]hat’s the moral of this story? Know thyself and know thy foibles. Study the history of your emotions and your actions.”
  • “At the extreme moments of fear and greed, the power of the daily price momentum and the mood and passions of ‘the crowd’ are tremendously important psychological influences on you. It takes a strong, self-confident, emotionally mature person to stand firm against disdain, mockery, and repudiation when the market itself seems to be absolutely confirming that you are both mad and wrong.”
  • “Also, be obsessive in making sure your facts are right and that you haven’t missed or misunderstood something. Beware of committing to mechanistic investing rules such as stop-loss limits or other formulas. Work very hard to better understand how you as an investor react to both prosperity and adversity, and particularly to the market’s manic swings, both euphoric and traumatic. Keep an investment diary and re-read it from time to time but particularly at moments when there is tremendous exuberance and also panic. We are in a very emotional business, and any wisdom we can extract from our own experience is very valuable.”
  • “Understanding the effect of emotion on your actions has never been more important than it is now. In the midst of this great financial and economic crisis that grips the world, Central Banks are printing money in one form or another. This makes our investment world even more prone to bubbles and panics than it has been in the past. Either plague can kill you.”

Barton-Biggs-dies-warned-of-dotcom-crash-EO1SCC8G-x-large-1

Nine ways to a fast sale

Oh my. Oh my. The market is turning. The market is crashing, the depression is coming, terrible things will befall us. That is the content of some email I am receiving.

Yes, the market is turning in some areas – particularly in small-town B.C. – and yes, listings are higher and sales are down 30 per cent in some areas.

What you need is a good marketing effort. All good marketing efforts start as a sound, basic plan and then evolve to fit the particular property and situation. Cut from whole cloth and then tailormade, such a plan will incorporate innovative new ideas and “rearrange” old ones.

Here then, are a few:

· Most important: interview and select a quality realtor, from two or three recommended ones. Have them make a market evaluation – in writing – and an action plan on how best to market your property. Go see all the comparables used in the evaluation. Pick the realtor whose comparables and action plan makes the most sense to you. Get somebody who knows your neighbourhood intimately and who’s enthusiastic about your home. Insist on weekly contact … even if there is “nothing happening.” Be the squeaky wheel.

· Price your home right. Yes, we all need and want the best price, as in the highest price, for our abode. But be realistic. Ask yourself: “If I were the buyer, would I pay the price I am asking for this place?” Real estate is cyclical and we may be nearing the end of this cycle. If you want to sell, price it just below the competition, not what you could have received last year.

· The more exposure, the better:

a) Ensure your home is listed on the Multiple Listing Service and on the agent’s website/tour/ agents open house ASAP.

b) Be with it. You or your realtor use your daily papers, The Vancouver Sun and The Province – in print and online – craigslist.com and kijiji.ca; the real estate section. People surf. Use Facebook, LinkedIn or Twitter postings from time to time. Talk about one great feature of your home, don’t write a book. It also might attract that foreign buyer.

· Create a “Benefit and Feature” sheet for your home. List every good point, every benefit that your property and your neighbourhood enjoys. Create a “Pick-Up” Box and augment the realtor’s “For Sale” sign with it. Such as an open-topped container filled with the above mentioned feature sheets for pick up.

· Stage your home! Have a professional come in and help. Stand in the doorway to find each room’s focal point, and use furniture placement to highlight that. The back of your sofa shouldn’t block the view of the fireplace, for example. Remove any extraneous pieces of furniture. “Re-position” them into another room – or into storage altogether.

· De-clutter and then de-clutter again. Depersonalize and neutralize. The first items that should go in those packing boxes: family photos, collections and just about anything else that says “you.” Show the home from its best possible side. Have people see how they would feel if they owned the home. Developers have show suites and show homes for a reason.

· First impressions do count. Fix up your home but do it with “resale” in mind – take care of the eye-catching areas and don’t waste the effort (and money) on the rest. Fix the porch or entrance, that wobbly front step or squeaky door. Repaint the front door, bathrooms and kitchen. Use general (but modern) neutral colours only. Again, don’t spend a fortune on the remodelling; you won’t get your money back. If any remodelling is done spend it all in the kitchen and baths. Clean like a fiend. Q-Tip clean!

· Get rid of the junk. A bright place is a happy place. Clean up the basement areas. Ditto for the stairwells and closets. If you’ve got too much junk and other indispensable basement stuff piled up, have it stored off-site during the selling period. (It’s inexpensive.) . Sell the sizzle. Add lights along the walkway, put big brass house numbers up and a brass mailbox on your door. Kick up the curb appeal. Garden gnomes are a no-no. Front landscaping is what the buyer sees first.

Always remember: this is your house we’re discussing. You have the right to demand an attentive, professional, upbeat realtor; a person who creates a solid, comprehensive action plan (in writing) and does so in a measurable way (number of showings, numbers of interested buyers, etc.).

A good realtor keeps you informed all the way. A poor realtor won’t. The realtor has the right to ask you for your help: Clean up the yard and space, tie up the dog and hide the dirty laundry (please!).

Insist that your realtor be focused, but be equally as focused. There is no such thing as accidental success. It’s always earned and always comes with a price. The price of doing the work of being prepared with a good measurable plan of action is nothing compared to the maximum price you get for your home.

OVERSEAS BUYERS NEED SPECIAL CONSIDERATION

If your property appeals to overseas buyers, ensure your agent understands how to deal with questions of feng shui (literally “wind and water”). It’s the Asian philosophy in which a building’s exterior and interior elements, site placement and orientation, landscaping and so forth can and will deeply affect the building’s “luck.”

The agent should be able to identify – and take advantage of – benefits readily apparent to a feng shuiaware buyer. Benefits, such as the number “8” in a street address, a high vista and an interior which doesn’t have a clear line of sight from front door to back. (Any good fortune will flow right out the door.) Conversely, the agent should be aware of any potential problems, so they can be counteracted. For instance, the number “4” is to be avoided (it sounds disturbingly like the word “death”) and a home placed on the top of a T-junction is to be shunned. (Any bad luck in the neighbourhood will come howling right up the street and into the house.) Don’t smile. After all, here in North America there’s many a condo tower marketed and somehow built without having the “benefit” of a 13th floor.

Published in the Vancouver Sun, April 6, 2012

Ozzie Jurock is a senior real estate adviser and the publisher of Jurock’s Real Estate Insider. He can be reached by at oz@jurock.com or Jurock.com.

Related Links:

ozzie-podium2

 

6 ways to calculate a mortgage

Mortgage Calculators

 

Mortgage Calculator 
Calculate how much money you can borrow based on your financial circumstances 

Mortgage – Extra Repayments

Calculate how much time and money you could save by making extra loan repayments 

Mortgage – Loan Comparison 
Compare any two loans to see if one will be cheaper over the life of the loan 

Mortgage – Loan Repayments 

Calculate how much your repayments would be for a specified loan amount

Mortgage – Lump Sum Repayments 
Calculate how much time and money you could save by paying in a lump sum amount 

Mortgage – Reverse Mortgage Calculator 

See how much you could earn in reverse mortgage repayments and what happens to your home equity over time.

More “Hot Button” Articles by Ozzie Jurock:

21 ways to make your home sell faster
When selling a home (or anything else for that matter), the marketing effort must be coordinated on all fronts.

How to Buy a Foreclosure
Is it a good idea to buy foreclosure property in the US? And other questions answered by Ozzie Jurock.

Read More of Ozzie’s Hot Button Articles:

21 ways to make your home sell faster

How to Buy a Foreclosure

Buying in the USA

Buying at an Auction

Real Estate Market Outlook/Forecasts (Ed Note: Paid Service)

Please note, these calculators are indicative only and the final results will vary depending on your personal situation and loan arrangements.

mortgage

What’s Coming: Inflate or Die

Richard2

Russell: Years ago I coined a phrase that described the US’s predicament. The phrase was “Inflate or Die”. As far as I’m concerned, inlfate or die is even more to the point today. Here’s why. The US possesses 8,133 tons of gold, or more than three time the amound o gold held by any other nation (Germany is second with 3, 396 tons of Gold).

Have you ever wondered why the US hangs on to its gold like grim death? And at the same time the US talks down gold? Have you wonderred why the US appears (like China) to be encouraging is citizens to buy, hold, and accumulated gold? Why is the US government distributing gold coins to Americans? Why did the US Government come out wih a new Buffalo solid gold coin and advertise that coin widely?

…find out why HERE

With the LIBOR manipulation scandal and the collapse of commodity brokers MF Global and PFG Best, what is the average investor to do?

Lauren Lyster discusses the answer in a Capital Account interview with Simon Mikhailovich, co-manager of Ediesis Capital.

The topic is “Death of Price Signals and the Birth of a Faith-Based Financial System

Link if video does not play: Birth of a Faith-Based Financial System

The entire interview is worth a complete play. The key portion starts right around the 21:30 mark in which Mikhailovich explains:

          

The financial system is so interconnected and so highly correlated, different asset classes that deemed to be uncorrelated or low-correlated, have become highly-correlated and are essentially all sitting in one systemic basket. 

The way to address the problem is to look for baskets that are not in the financial system. You have to look for physical assets, hard assets, that are not financial instruments, not only the assets themselves are not in the financial system, but the way you own them is not related to the financial system. 

In other words, direct physical ownership of non-financial assets. … The main one is gold. 

Physical gold is the answer because gold is the most liquid, most ubiquitous material, with a worldwide market.

It should owned physically outside the financial system and hopefully with geographic diversification so you can assess liquidity during tough times. We have started a fund to enable people to do just that.

Hold Physical Gold Outside the Financial System

 

To escape the “faith-based initiative” physical gold is the answer.

Mikhailovich proposes one way. Taking physical possession is another,Goldmoney is a third.

I believe a portion of one’s assets belongs in physical gold. What portion depends on many things, including comfort level of holding gold and ability to not panic in strong corrections.

As noted in previous posts: For the sake of full disclosure, my physical precious metals holdings are now entirely at GoldMoney and I have an affiliate relationship with them.

If anyone wants information about GoldMoney or investing in physical gold and silver in general, please Email Mish: MikeShedlock@Gmail.Com

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List