Personal Finance

It begins: IRS launches International Data Exchange service

Britain-end-encryptionYesterday, the IRS announced the International Data Exchange Service.

If you’ve not heard of it, it’s is an outgrowth of the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA), which requires every single bank in the world to get in bed with IRS to share information about customers.

We’ve said this over and over, FATCA is probably the dumbest law in the history of the United States. And I don’t say that lightly, because there’s definitely stiff competition.

Like any other bankrupt government, the US government has taken to intimidating its own citizens and the entire world in an attempt to make ends meet.

Their hope was that the minority of people committing tax evasion would come clean and that it would result in some huge boost in tax revenue.

But the fact is that tax revenues actually haven’t improved at all.

Looking at tax revenue as a percentage of GDP, the numbers haven’t budged at all from their long-term average. Not a single bit.

So in actuality, FATCA has done nothing positive for America.

That said, FATCA has managed to destroy what little remaining credibility the United States government still had.

Bear in mind these people have spied on their allies, dropped bombs by remote control, and force fed people negative real interest rates and $18 trillion in debt.

But if that weren’t enough, FATCA goes after foreigners with absurd logistical challenges, commanding every single bank on the planet to comply.

Here’s the ultimate irony: there are nations in this world that are not recognized by the United States. The Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. Abkhazia. Etc. Yet banks in these regions still have to sign up with the IRS.

It’s like— you don’t exist. But you must still comply.

The IRS tells us that so far more than 145,000 financial institutions have already signed information-sharing agreements.

Now with yesterday’s launch of IDES they have an online platform to invade customer privacy at every one of those banks. This is a terrible trend.

I was talking to Jim Rickards the other day, author of both Currency Wars and The Death of Money (both excellent books).

He was telling me how decades ago he could ring up a bank and open an account over the phone in just a matter of minutes.

Now, because all these governments are bankrupt, banks have become unpaid financial spies required to treat customers as if we’re criminal terrorists.

The lifeblood of capitalism is capital, and banks are supposed to be the responsible stewards of our capital.

So by obstructing the ability of banks to engage in commerce, the US government is grinding down the pitiful remains of global capitalism down to the mere punch line.

This has consequences.

Perhaps more importantly, and the reason we think FATCA is the dumbest or at least the most destructive law in US history, is that it provides an enormous incentive for the rest of the world to simply avoid dealing with the United States.

There’s no bank on the planet that likes FATCA.

The only reason they comply is because the US has a nuclear option: sign up for FATCA or else we’ll withhold 30% of all transfers that go through the United States.

This is a big deal for banks.

Since the US dollar is the world’s dominant reserve currency, the majority of global transactions are denominated in US dollars and cleared through the US banking system.

This makes the US banking system critical to global finance. And it has long been a major advantage to the United States.

You would think that a government entrusted with such an awesome responsibility, from which it has benefitted for decades, would treat this advantage with dignity and care.

But no. Instead, the US government has turned its banking system into a weapon with which it threatens the entire world.

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize that the rest of the world is one day going to create its own alternative system. One that would no longer rely on the US dollar.

Oh wait— they’re already doing that.

With FATCA, the US has shot itself in the proverbial foot. They’re practically begging the world to please take away its last remaining financial advantage.

And the rest of the world is listening.

 

Also be sure to check out this insane development in the Chinese stock market. It’s is a huge warning sign. And frankly it would be hilarious if it weren’t so worrying… 
 
 
Or if you’re looking for something a bit more positive, here are a few observations from my trip to Antarctica this past weekend.
 
 

Until tomorrow, 
Signature 
Simon Black 
Founder, SovereignMan.com
 

Basic Truths and Consequences

Most normal individuals believe these basic truths.

We cannot borrow our way out of debt.

We cannot spend our way into prosperity.

We cannot tax ourselves into wealth.

More specific versions of these essential truths are:

We can’t fix an excessive debt problem with more debt.

We can’t support a larger and increasingly more expensive government with a decreasing work force.

Paper money always returns to its intrinsic value – zero.

Or, as Ayn Rand said two generations ago, “We can ignore reality but we can’t ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.

Now look at some Basic Charts!  Monthly S&P 500 Index since 1996:

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…. continue reading HERE

‘The good times are over’ and this will be a ‘terrible year’ says the former ‘Bond King’ Bill Gross laterly head of Pimco and now of Janus Capital, providing his economic outlook for 2015. He’s the only major forecaster on Wall Street to call for a decline in all asset classes, and frankly a bit late in the day too with markets tumbling across the board and oil at $48.

Once again the professional analysts are leading investors over the edge and into oblivion! Or maybe Mr. Gross is wrong again this year? CNBC’s Dominic Chu reports…

Screen Shot 2015-01-09 at 8.34.40 AM

Video link click here!

5 New Facts That Most People Don’t Know – But Should

  1. Total worldwide debt is estimated to be $158.8 trillion. The US represents 11% of the total.
  2. In 2014 emerging markets issued $276 billion in US denominated debt. The total emerging market debt issued in US dollars is $1 Trillion.
  3. The Russian ruble has fallen 70% against the US dollar since the end of June. Russian corporations have $98 billion in US denominated bonds coming due in 2015.
  4. Greek government debt totals $479 billion US. Annual interest payments are $35 billion US. On January 25, Greece will vote in what amounts to a referendum on being in the EU. (Here will go again.)
  5. Japan’s total debt is $1.1 trillion US. Debt servicing consumes 43% of government revenues. Japan population is projected to fall from 127 million to 87 million by the year 2060.
MC Corus3Let me start by saying, pay attention to these numbers. There is a high probability that 2015 will see a return of the debt crisis that gripped the world in 2008 and then again in 2011. Of course it never really ended. Central banks led by the Federal Reserve expended trillions of dollars to paper over the problems but that was always just a stopgap – never a solution.
As the world’s biggest bond fun manager, Bill Gross stated, “Solving a debt crisis by creating more debt cannot cure the disease.”

I have no doubt that central banks will do whatever it takes to avoid another debt liquidation panic but the question is – will it be enough. Enough to rescue Russia, Greece, Venezuela and many other emerging market countries.

No one can afford to ignore the rising probability that the next round of consequences of the sovereign debt crisis will occur in 2015 – but what does it mean for interest rates, the dollar, the stock market, real estate and gold?

This is where we can help

Every year at this time I invite you to come to the World Outlook Financial Conference – and why not? The track record of recommendations has been incredible. We have consistently featured some of the best analysts in the English speaking world who are chosen because of their exceptional track records.
 
Last year three major macro-economic predictions were made: 1) sell oil and oil stocks; 2) interest rates would fall and 3) have a good chunk of your assets in US dollars. Specifically it was recommended to stay away from gold and other metals, sell the euro, and buy quality dividend paying stocks on dips. Our bonus small cap pick, which was sent to attendees immediately after the conference, was up over 100% by the end of the year.
 
Arguably the most impressive prediction was presented by Martin Armstrong who reiterated his prediction made at the 2013 Outlook Conference for the date of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the resulting investment repercussions.
 
But the terrific track record is not the reason I think you should attend this year. As I outlined above, 2015 is different. The period since the initial credit crisis in 2008 is over and we are about to enter the next phase. It will be marked by higher levels of volatility and by desperate moves by governments including tax grabs and civil seizures.
 
The Easiest Bet
 
There is going to be big money made and lost in 2015. The recent decline in oil is a reminder how fast things can change. As oil investors have found out – failing to recognize those changes is very costly. I suspect that people who hold euros and yen will get that message drilled home in 2015 and beyond.   
 
Paying For Your Ticket Many Times Over

While past performance is no guarantee of future success this year’s analysts have displayed an uncanny ability to read the various investment markets while employing proven risk management techniques which raised their probability of success dramatically. And it’s why our analysts like the incredible Martin ArmstrongTimer’s Digest Timer of the Year Mark Leibovit, Canada’s best known independent real estate analyst Ozzie Jurock, and Keystone Financial’s Ryan Irvine charge in excess of $1,700 for personal consultations. Yet at the World Outlook Financial Conference you can get access to them and get your individual questions answered for as little as $129. 

Our Special VIP Bonuses

If you go to the MoneyTalks store you will see a number of tremendous bonuses – but today I want to tell you about just one. Keystone Financial is about to release their 2015 Cash Rich/Debt Free, Profitable Canadian Micro to Mid-Cap Report ($599 value). This report is included in your VIP ticket purchase. Plus Ryan and his team create our World Outlook Small Cap portfolio that has never failed to deliver significant double digit returns.
 
There’s nothing more I can say. 2015 is going to be pivotal to our country, companies and individual financial well being. I hope you take advantage of the opportunity.
 
Sincerely,

Mike,
Host of MoneyTalks
 
P.S.  As you may know I am hugely interested in educating our younger generation and to that end we have a special offer – if you buy a ticket – you can bring a student absolutely free. The only thing is that we ask you add the free student ticket to your online cart when you purchase your ticket because we have a limited number of tickets set aside. And I might add that the students have really enjoyed the conference but it is also a great way to share/create a common interest with your children – no matter what their age.

P.P.S  If you have already purchased your tickets and would like to add a student now, please have them CLICK HERE to register and print out their ticket.
 
Conference Details

 

 

15 Surprises for 2015

imagesHere are my 15 surprises for 2015 (with a strategy that might be employed in order for an investor to profit from the occurrence of these possible improbables).

Surprise No.1 – Faith in central bankers is tested (stocks sink and gold soars).

“Investment bubbles and high animal spirits do not materialize out of thin air. They need extremely favorable economic fundamentals together with free and easy, cheap credit and they need it for at least two or three years. Importantly, they also need serial pleasant surprises in such critical variables as global GNP growth.” – Jeremy Grantham

“The highly abnormal is becoming uncomfortably normal. Central banks and markets have been pushing benchmark sovereign yields to extraordinary lows – unimaginable just a few years back. Three-year government bond yields are well below zero in Germany, around zero in Japan and below 1 per cent in
the United States. Moreover, estimates of term premia are pointing south again, with some evolving firmly in negative territory. And as all this is happening, global growth – in inflation-adjusted terms – is close to historical averages. There is something vaguely troubling when the unthinkable becomes routine.” – Claudio Borio

European QE Backfires: The ECB initiates a sovereign QE in January 2015, but it is modest in scale (relative to expectations) as Germany won’t permit a more aggressive strategy. Markets are disappointed with the small size of the ECB’s initiative and European banks choose to hold their bonds instead of selling. ECB balance sheet still can’t get to 3 trillion euros and the euro actually rallies sharply. Bottom line, QE fails to work (economic growth doesn’t accelerate and inflationary expectations don’t lift). 

….continue reading HERE