With a non-stop flow of propaganda from Western mainstream media outlets, today Michael Pento sent King World News a fantastic piece which puts aside the propaganda and lays out what is really taking place. Pento also discusses what to expect in the future.
By Michael Pento of Pento Portfolio Strategies
July 27 (King World News) – Forget The Propaganda, This Is What’s really Happening
Baseball great Yogi Berra had a saying “It’s déjà vu all over again,” and every year around this time, I am reminded of those words. As we have once again happened upon that magical time of year I call, recovery summer déjà vu. It’s the time of year when Wall Street and Washington apologists trot out their dog and pony narrative, in an attempt to spin the actual data, proving we have finally embarked on the summer that will launch sustainable economic growth….
….continue reading HERE
“Mining is an inherently difficult business,” Adrian Day, CEO of Adrian Day Asset Management, told investors at this week’s Sprott Vancouver Natural Resource Symposium. Of course, mining companies, be they senior or junior, run into problems – which if we are being honest are mostly due to money.
During his presentation, Day weighed out some of the ups and downs of senior and junior gold companies highlighting some differences, but also some similarities. By looking at both sides of the coin, investors can have a better understanding of the companies that they are investing in.
Apart from cash costs or operating costs, Day highlighted one very significant aspect of the mining industry that affects all producing companies: replacing ounces mined.
“If you look at the production of gold over the course of the bull market, where gold has gone from $200 per ounce to $1,300 per ounce (with a stop at $1,900 along the way), one would think that people would have found and produced more ounces,” Day said.
Unfortunately, that is not the case. For a company like Barrick Gold (TSX:ABX,NYSE:ABX), which mines some 7 million ounces of gold per year, finding a deposit to replace those ounces is no easy task. In fact, Day explained that despite gold’s price increase, the truth is that it’s difficult to find and produce more gold.
So for companies like Barrick, the only solution for replacing depleted reserves is acquisition. The problem with this strategy — although it’s a very good one — is that major mining companies, as Day put it, “do not buy things when things are cheap.”
Essentially, major companies tend to replace their assets when costs and premiums are higher, leading them to acquire debt. The reason they do that, said Day, is that they tend to follow the herd and do as their shareholders request. The flip side is that when the market isn’t doing so well, and investors want to know the reason for such companies’ poor performance, the companies will cut costs, putting assets up for sale and even cutting dividends.
On the exploration side, there are also problems. The biggest of those, as Day explained, are the long odds.
“Only 1 in 5,000 anomalies actually becomes a deposit. Only 1 in 10,000 prospects becomes a major deposit of over 4 million ounces,” Day said. “Those are amazingly long odds, and you obviously can’t succeed by just randomly buying prospects.”
Another problem that Day sees impacting the junior market is money — or rather, a lack thereof. Because exploration companies have no revenue, they need to raise money. That means that it makes no difference whether the market is good or bad: exploration companies need to raise capital.
So why invest?
Looking at gold companies — both major and junior — under the harsh light of day does not make them seem like a good investment. But fret not — Day insisted that “gold stocks can produce outsized returns.”
“If you look at the mining companies today relative to the price of gold, you can see that they are selling at multi-decade lows relative to bullion,” Day said, which is a great opportunity.
Now, if you believe that, then only one question remains: what do you buy?
As Day explained, senior, mid-tier and junior miners do well at different times, with the majors generally performing well early on.
“When the price of gold starts to move and people start getting attracted to gold mining companies, what do they buy? They buy the names they know. And they tend to be for big mining companies,” Day noted.
But when weighing out whether to invest in a major or junior, Day was pretty clear. He commented, “I wouldn’t want anyone to make a mistake that senior mining companies are good investments or that they are less risky than junior mining companies.” So how does one navigate these murky waters?
Well, for Day, that answer comes in two words: business models.
“I think that it is important is to look very selectively at this business,” Day said, adding, “I prefer looking at the business model that mitigates risk.”
In terms of seniors, Day looks for the royalty business model, which can be found at large companies like Franco-Nevada (NYSE:FNV) or at smaller companies like Callinan Royalties (TSXV:CAA) and Altius Minerals (TSX:ALS).
“I think it’s fair to say that by and large most of these companies are not the tremendous bargain basement bargains that the mining companies are, but they are by and large stronger companies with much less risk and much better business models,” he noted.
On the exploration side, just like Rick Rule, Day looks at companies that have adopted the prospect generator model. ”Prospect generators typically use other people’s money to do the risky exploration and are in a much better position to preserve their balance sheets,” he explained.
But in the end, it really is about managing risk and realizing that volatility is the nature of the market.
For more insights from Sprott Global Resource Investments, sign up for the free Sprott’s Thoughts newsletter.
Securities Disclosure: I, Vivien Diniz, hold no investment interest in any of the companies mentioned.
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This week’s TedBits is as important a commentary as any I have ever written in my 10+ years writing Austrian analysis of the unfolding world macroeconomics and geopolitical situation. It covers the origins, causes and destinations we are headed for, the participants, historical context and the future based upon past episodes: Past, present and future so to speak. I hope you enjoy it. Best wishes Ty.
Adam Smith in his seminal book, Wealth of Nations, outlined how all great empires rest upon an educated, productive and prosperous citizenry. The United States is no exception as its schools over the centuries from grade school to colleges provided the teachings of history, reading and writing, logic, self-reliance, independence and the principles of the constitutional republic brought to us by our founding fathers and God. The United States was founded by people seeking shelter from Despots, authoritarian governments and dictators. Independent souls who were not afraid of providing for themselves, who wanted freedom of religion, and who were willing to strike out into the wilderness to flourish or die. And flourish they did, as did their children and grandchildren. They created the greatest empire in history, the most freedom, the least government, the greatest wealth and middle classes as never seen in history.
Now, this is coming to an end. The assault on the wealth (citizens) and freedoms of the United States began with Teddy Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson (created the Federal Reserve) a century ago. With a BIG BOOST from progressive liberal Franklin Delano Roosevelt and the creation of the Second Bill of Rights. The progressive movement goal of transforming the United States from a Capitalist constitutional republic to a progressive socialist democracy has been underway for over 100 years and its realization spells the demise of the greatest country ever known. We are near the final denouement of economic collapse and destruction of our monetary and financial system caused by their policies. Ultimately, these PROGRESSIVE men and their supporters transform their societies from the production of great wealth, also known as CAPITALISM, to the consumption of it, known as SOCIALISM (the Orwellian name they use is DEMOCRACY). This final conversion of capitalist economies in the developed world to SOCIALIST economies was set in motion in the developed world at Bretton Woods II.
As empires enter the sunset of their existence, a malignancy of a “Something for Nothing” society emerges which has put the nails in the coffins of every empire that has preceded it. They are a man-made personality/societies created by the powers that be to be sheepish and serfs to the most corrupt at the top of the societies who they have placed their trust in. These elites have forgotten how to create and maintain the policies of wealth creation. Socialism is the consumption and redistribution of wealth not the production of it. The something for nothings/useful idiots cannot produce more than they consume. They are CRIPPLED by the system they inhabit and it is man made by those who control society. They are not taught the lessons of history, how wealth is created and where it comes from, or how to think for themselves. They are not given any of the skills and habits of successful living and prudent lifestyles, creating legions of people DEPENDENT on Government or thinking they are helpless to help themselves. They are ROBBED of their futures by the powers that be.
They are created by public school monopolies as espoused by Karl Marx and Vladimir Lenin who called them USEFUL IDIOTS. They are the mob. One of the primary missions of the constitution was to protect the minorities among us from the majorities. Most people think just because they are born that intelligence follows. No, if that was the case the world would be a highly productive and prosperous place. Humans are like pieces of clay; they are molded just as a sculpture is. The people in charge of our schools have broken the old mold that created the most successful and wealthy society in the history of mankind and created more wealth and prosperity for more people in history. And substituted it with one that is RIGGED against the public, creates the foundations of failed socialist states, and turned their futures from BRIGHT to BLEAK. I have put a video of George Carlin at the end of this missive and he has it completely correct that the elites who control society have no interest in creating citizens who can challenge them. They are created to serve the elites in a type of quiet desperation.
The elites that George Carlin speaks of were left out of a having a place in the United States by the founding fathers, INTENTIONALLY. Their core comes from the multi-century banking houses such as the Rothschild’s, Warburg’s, Rockefellers (female side of the Rothschild’s) and JP Morgan’s of history. These families have been preying on men for over 400 years; playing the booms and busts their banking models create to acquire one way or another over 60% of all wealth in the world over that period. They understand and exploit the difference between real tangible wealth and paper wealth with no tangible value (leverage and credit created out of thin air through their central banking monopolies) which create the oscillations necessary to sell at the top and buy at the bottom. They are masters of the game and own virtually every politician, and government. The constitution had many clauses which sought to prevent them gaining a foothold here. Divided government, prohibiting a PRIVATELY OWNED central bank, PRIVATE classical education (reading, writing and arithmetic) and a constitutional requirement for sound money were the primary barriers to them. Those barriers have now been dismantled in one manner or another and the tenets of Marxism/socialism have been substituted.
“Let me issue and control a nation’s money supply, and I care not who makes its laws.”
– Mayer Amschel Rothschild
It has been accomplished slowly but surely over the last 100 plus years. As Socialism displaces wealth creation, the world’s economies are constantly shrinking in real terms. As the economic pie shrinks, they resort to measures which create more for them and less for the public at large. Using unsound money, crony capitalism, and an ever expanding welfare state (redistribution of wealth from the makers to the takers) to create a NET under their supporters and victims, which are one and the same.
There are FIVE ELEMENTS to CREATING a SOMETHING-for-NOTHING society:
THE CREATION OF UNSOUND MONETARY SYSTEM
Money is now a government sponsored monopoly designed to change the private sector into a land of serfs to governments (socialists) and Private banksters. (Can anyone reading this article give me one example of a monopolist who served its customers more than it served themselves?) Woodrow Wilson in 1913 sold Americans down the river in exchange for UNLIMITED funding for EXPANDING progressive government and his campaign. He also implemented the INCOME tax a concept that the founding fathers also tried to prohibit. The road to the serfdom and ultimate demise of Capitalism and the United States began at this time.
“I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around the banks will deprive the people of all property – until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered.”
– Thomas Jefferson
Thomas Jefferson is one of the greatest Founding fathers of the United States speaking of the privately owned Federal Reserve, a bank who was given a monopoly on the creation of money and credit in the UNITED STATES. From that point forward the economy is and has been run for the BENEFIT of the BANKING systems. Of course, we are at the conclusion of this process today. The next wave of deflation, insolvency and credit failures will usher in the next wave of confiscation by the banking and financial systems.
The Dollar was remade into a semi-sound monetary system, but fractional reserve banking began its insidious rise in 1913. Booms and Busts became the GAME plan, not the prevention of them as was presented to the public. The independent private banks around the country became the game to be hunted by the central bank known as the Federal Reserve and its owners scattered geographically around the country and the BIG New York commercial banks were its owners. The great depression was just an episode of a business plan that BANKSTERS have had in place for over 400 years. They took what was yours and made it theirs. You owned it at the top and, when the leverage FAILED, they bought it at the bottom… with what else? “Money printed out of THIN AIR”. The busts of 1973, 1982, 2000 and 2008 were also episodes of asset transfers from you to them using their business plan. The big commercial banks also known as too big to fail are part of the cabal participating.
After World War II, the global financial systems and most developed world economies lay in shambles. To the victor went the spoils and the United States had gathered most of the gold in Europe and Asia during the battles and transferred it to the United States. It did not want to return the spoils of war (Gold) so a new monetary system was created with the dollar as the world’s currency. At Bretton Woods, in New Hampshire in 1944, it was reformed with the dollar redeemable in Gold by central banks but the currencies systems of the central banks who were party to the agreement were required to run FIAT currency and credit systems. This is when the term the “Dollar is as good as gold” began. It also led to the world’s central banks creditably saying their currencies were back by gold by simply holding dollars as reserves.
The US started printing away and was when Lyndon Johnson implemented the great society programs of welfare, and simultaneously was involved in the Vietnam War. Central banks, seeing the debasement of their RESERVES, began repatriating their gold. This proverbial run on the bank lasted until the US gold reserve had been cut by about 80% since Bretton Woods I. In order to preserve some of the United States GOLD holdings, Richard Nixon closed the central bank gold window in August 1971.
In 1971, Richard Nixon, a big Government progressive in conservative clothing, betrayed the world when he tore the final foundations of sound money from the reserve currency of the world and exchanged worthless IOU’s redeemable in NOTHING in exchange for them. The concept of private property was destroyed on that day, only very few knew it. It was the greatest THEFT in HISTORY and succeeded because no one really knew what money was anymore. What sound money had been dropped from school curriculums decades earlier. Humans worldwide no longer had a sound place to store their labor and wealth.
This is a picture of the destruction of the money people are paid and store their wealth in. It is a picture of the middle class being destroyed by unsound money. As a store of value and purchasing power, it is obviously on its way to WORTHLESSNESS!
In August 1971, Americans went from the top two categories to the bottom two categories in one fell swoop! Money is now a government sponsored monopoly designed to change the private sector into a land of serfs to governments and banksters. In exchange for UNLIMITED funding for government, the economy is run for the BENEFIT of the BANKING systems.
THIS IS WHY THE MIDDLE class is GONE, killed by the governments and banking systems they have placed their trust in. UNSOUND MONEY has:
…and set in motion the final demise of the capitalist systems which had created the prosperity of the developed on a scale previously unknown by man:
“The best way to destroy the capitalist system is to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens… There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.”
– John Maynard Keynes
At Bretton Woods II, The Capitalist Economic model was PERMANENTLY changed to Progressive Socialist model!
From: producing more than you consume, creating capital, wealth and savings for future investment in productive ventures.
To: Consuming more than you produce and borrowing from the future creating growth and economic activity predicated on always expanding credit and consumption of wealth rather than living within ones means, producing more than you consume and creating wealth! The CAPITALIST economic model was TURNED UPSIDE DOWN, and INSIDE OUT.
The Something for Nothing society was BORN! Instead of taxes from a growing private sector, the government could just borrow it (putting its citizens in debt) or print it out of thin air!
“In the end all paper money returns to its intrinsic value: worthless”
– Voltaire
“Nations are not ruined by one act of violence, but gradually and in an almost imperceptible manner by the depreciation of their circulating currency, through excessive quantity”
– Nicholas Copernicus
“Gold is money, everything else is just credit.”
– JP Morgan
“Paper is poverty. It is only the ghost of money, and not money itself.”
– Thomas Jefferson
In conclusion, the path to the future is firmly inculcated into society today. It is like a stone rolling downhill, or being below the event horizon of a black hole: UNSTOPPABLE! I am writing this tome to let you see this progression and unfolding debacle so that you can prepare yourselves. Austrian economics is extremely PREDICTIVE, as it is history repeating and common sense as outlined by Ludwig Von Mises, Frederic Hayak and many more too numerous to mention. May God Bless them all for giving us their wisdom and roadmaps to today’s issues.
Part two of three of this commentary “Useful Idiots and the Something for Nothing Society” will cover more of the five elements bringing us to where we find ourselves today. It will be sent out next week to your favorite website, posted to our blog at www.TedBits.com, or you can have it delivered into you inbox by subscribing. Subscriptions are free CLICK HERE.
Wishful thinking or living with rose colored glasses will not serve you well. We all need to see reality, work to restore what elements we can, and plan for the worse and hope for the best in our personal lives. There are many things you can do personally to insulate yourselves from much of the chaos and capitalize on it as well. I have always said that this is the greatest opportunity in history and I continue to believe this. Applied Austrian economics and a great grasp of history can help you turn lemons to lemonade. I am working to turn a light on and let you connect the dots, which so many fail to do. May God bless you and see you next week!
Author’s Note: In my opinion the greatest manmade disaster and OPPORTUNITY in history is unfolding in every corner of the world. Are you diversified or operating with EYES WIDE SHUT? Are you prepared to turn it into opportunity by properly diversifying your portfolio? Adding absolute return investments which are designed with the potential to thrive (up and down markets) regardless of what unfolds economically or politically? This is what I do for investors; help them diversify into investments which are created to potentially thrive in the storm. For a personal consultation with meCLICK HERE!
For some perspective on the all-important US real estate market, today’s chart illustrates the inflation-adjusted median price of a single-family home in the United States over the past 44 years. There are a few points of interest. Not only did housing prices increase at a rapid rate from 1991 to 2005, the rate at which housing prices increased — increased. All those gains and then some were given back during the following 6.5 years. Over the past two years, however, the median price of a single-family home has trended significantly higher. More recently, the inflation-adjusted price of the median single-family home has declined and is now testing support of its two-year upward sloping trend channel.
Notes:
Does the real estate rally continue? The answer may surprise you. Find out now with the exclusive & highly regarded charts of Chart of the Day Plus.
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We see markets “priced for perfection”…vulnerable to a correction…from a geopolitical shock or from a growing perception that the Fed will raise interest rates more and faster than people think. We think it’s time for investors to get defensive…we see signs that the smart money is already taking money off the table.
We see markets “priced for perfection” as yield-hungry investors pour billions of dollars into the sovereign bonds of obscure countries at tiny premiums over US Treasuries…as option volatility falls to all-time lows…as leverage ramps up to all-time highs. Our good friend BOB HOYE describes the recent market condition as, “Euphoria in the credit markets!”
David Rosenberg reminds us that it’s been 8 years since the Fed raised rates…that we’ve gone 33 months (double the norm) without so much as a 10% correction in the stock market…but last week the DJIA registered a new All Time High Weekly Close…despite geo-political shocks in the Ukraine and Gaza.
For instance, so far in July:
1) Treasury bonds have rallied while “weaker credits” have fallen…credit spreads are widening.
2) The DJIA has made new highs but the broader S+P 500 has gone sideways…while the much broader Russell 2000 is down…the major European stocks markets are down…(L to R: DJI,S&P,Russell)
3)The US Dollar has been rising against most currencies and if it rises another 1.5 to 2% (trading above 8100/8150 ) it will register a significant breakout.
A sharp widening in credit spreads
A break in the stock market
A higher USD
We think that over the next few years the US Dollar could rally like in did during President Reagan’s first term (it DOUBLED in just over 4 years) or during President Clinton’s 2nd term ( it rose more than 50% in 6 years) as global capital flows to the relative safety of the USA…to the much freer and more innovative American markets…here’s a quote from our July 2nd blog:
“Longer term we expect inflation to erode the purchasing power of the dollar….but capital flowing from the rest of the world to the relative safety of America would see the dollar rise against most currencies. We can imagine a rising USD, rising interest rates and rising stock markets all happening at the same time…a “virtuous circle” based on a relatively stronger and safer America drawing capital from the rest of the world…with that capital flow pushing stocks higher and those gains drawing more capital to America…thus continuing to boost the USD Vs. other currencies. Something similar happened during the 1995 to 2001 period (Clinton’s 2nd term) when capital flows created a virtuous circle of rising interest rates/rising USD/rising stocks which caused the US Dollar Index to rally ~50% and the S+P 500 to gain more than 200% (while the US$ price of gold fell from around $400 to less than $300.)”A US Dollar Bull Market is not typically good for gold, commodities or commodity currencies.
We remain long the US Dollar Index…and short CAD. We’re looking for other opportunities to make “USD bullish” trades…waiting for markets to “set up” for short positions…possibly in NZD, GBP and EUR. We may buy the Yen Vs. USD and/or EUR. We have taken very short term short positions in the S+P…waiting for “set ups” (for instance, a break of 1940) to confirm that it’s time to take longer term positions.
I know Mike is a very solid investor and respect his opinions very much. So if he says pay attention to this or that - I will.
~ Dale G.
I've started managing my own investments so view Michael's site as a one-stop shop from which to get information and perspectives.
~ Dave E.
Michael offers easy reading, honest, common sense information that anyone can use in a practical manner.
~ der_al.
A sane voice in a scrambled investment world.
~ Ed R.
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