Stocks & Equities

The $325,000 Hamburger

I remember watching an episode of The Jetsons as a kid and being floored by the idea that the family’s food magically appeared in front of them… no muss, no fuss — a cloud of mist that produced a piping hot meal in seconds!

For years I waited anxiously for the Food-a-Rac-a-Cycle that would conjure up a hot meal before my very eyes.

Turns out my wait might finally be over…

Welcome to the future, my friends.

If you’re a regular reader of these pages, you know we’ve been beating the drum on 3D printing for years now. This technology has the power to revolutionize the way we live. We’ve seen 3D printers spit out guns, human tissue, even an entire house. And now we can add a new one to the list of printable goods: meat.

New breakthroughs have taken growing meat from the realm of schlocky horror films to real-life problem solving.

Gabor Forgacs, a biological physicist and co-founder of a “in-vitro meat” start-up, actually broke out the salt and pepper during a recent demonstration and chowed down on a hunk of “biomeat” in front of a delighted audience:

                                                          gabor-meat

“Not too bad,” he remarked, as he chewed and swallowed the one-inch strip.

…..read more HERE or an entirely new article HERE

 

Busting The Bullish Arguments

  • This market is nothing like 2000!”
     
  • “You have to realize just how amazing the markets are right now.”
     
  • “The ‘Walls of Worry’ have all been knocked down.”
     
  • “The next stop for the markets is simply higher.”
     
  • “This market is unstoppable.”
     
  • “I haven’t seen a market like this in 30 years.”

 

These were all things that I either read, or heard, in just the past week. I even read an article as to why that “This time is different – really!”

Here is an interesting statistic to think about for a moment. 

The current rise in the stock market has gone uninterrupted for 181 days which is the longest period in the history of the stock market.

Think about that for a moment.

Over the last 113 years of stock market history we are now witnessing the longest rise – ever. Every single time in history, when the markets have gone on extended runs, they have NEVER, not once, lasted as long as the current artificially fueled advance. What do you think is likely to happen next?

There is no doubt that the current advance is quite amazing. However, it is not unstoppable. It will stop. It will correct. Of course, when it does, these same “book talking jacklegs” that made the statements above will have a litany of excuses has to why such a correction was unexpected. Of course, those excuses won’t replace your lost capital.

Busting The “Bullish” Arguments

Take a look at the first chart below. First, notice the recent run-up in the market at the far right of the chart. This price action is very abnormal; it is called a parabolic spike, but is similar to what was witnessed at the peak of every previous bull market advance.

Secondly, one the primary “bullish” arguments has been valuations. The argument is that stocks are “fairly valued” because valuations reverted to their long term average during the financial crisis.

Take a look at the chart below. Never in history have valuations ONLY returned their long term average before setting off into the next secular bull market rise.

Screen shot 2013-05-19 at 4.44.54 PM

….read the entire 16 page report HERE

Rule – What I Am Doing With My Own Money Right Now

shapeimage 22Today one of the wealthiest people in the financial world spoke with King World News about what he is telling the affluent investors and professionals they should be doing with their money at this time.  Rick Rule, who is business partners with billionaire Eric Sprott and the CEO of Sprott USA, also tells KWN readers what he is doing with his own money at this time. 

HERE is what he had to say in this fascinating interview.

Time To Sell Stocks? Consult This Bear Market Checklist First

If any professional baseball player (particularly one in New York) puts up stats like that, he’s immediately booed and ridiculed. But when it comes to a particular stock market indicator, it’s actually a reason to celebrate. And guess what? It’s time to break out the bubbly.

No Batter, No Batter, Big Whiffer!

I can’t tell you how many readers routinely accuse me of being too optimistic. And I’ll readily admit that I’m a “glass half full” kind of guy. Despite my predisposition, though, I always base my bullishness on cold, hard facts. So my optimism is always justified. What’s more, when the data warrants a pessimistic stance, I have no problem embracing it. And we simply start sleuthing out attractive short-selling opportunities together.

Right now, however, there’s nothing to be bearish about. And I say that with conviction, because my “Bear Market Checklist” is a perfect 0-for-9. Not a single indicator on the list is even close to flashing a warning sign. We’ve got nothing but big whiffers.

Bear Market Warning Sign No. 1: A Tightening Fed

When Fed Chairmen — and their merry band of bankers — start tightening monetary policy, it’s time to keep an eye on the exits. Why? Because they have a tendency to overdo it, thereby creating a much more challenging environment for businesses. Or, as Richard Bernstein notes, “Historically, bull markets didn’t end when the Fed started to tighten. Rather, they ended after the Fed tightened too much.”

We’re in the clear now, though, since Ben Bernanke isn’t even contemplating an end to the quantitative easing efforts. If you want something specific to track, look at the yield curve. That is, the difference in short-term and long-term government bond yields. When it inverts (i.e., short-term yields rise above long-term yields), it’s a surefire indicator that the Fed has tightened too much.

As you can see, the current yield curve is nowhere near inverted. 

saupload 0513 NoSign thumb1

Bear Market Warning Sign No. 2: The Incredible, Disappearing Profit

By now, I’m sure you’re tired of hearing me say that stock prices ultimately follow earnings. But it’s true. So when corporate profitability starts taking a hit, it’s only a matter of time before stock prices head south, too. Again, we’ve got nothing to worry about.

In the first quarter, S&P 500 companies reported a 3.2% increase in earnings. And analysts expect them to keep growing over the next three quarters, by 1.6%, 7.9%, and 14.2%, respectively.

Bear Market Warning Sign No. 3: A Recession Is Coming! A Recession Is Coming!

Economic activity tends to slow down long before corporate profits take a hit. So we need to be on the lookout for reliable signs of a looming recession. Note the word “reliable.” I say that because, at any given time, there are always a handful of analysts warning that a recession is coming.

Ignore the Chicken Littles — and their opinions. Instead, focus on the hard data, including the two most reliable recession indicators I shared with you in late March — Piger’s “Recession Probability Index” and the 2/10 Spread. (For the record, they aren’t flashing any warning signs.) Besides, although the economy isn’t firing on all cylinders, it’s growing nonetheless. The latest estimates call for GDP growth of about 2% this year.

Bear Market Warning Sign No. 4: A Spike in CDS Prices

With all the funny money being pumped into the market by the Federal Reserve, another banking crisis is the biggest threat to the stock market. As I’ve shared before, there’s a simple and quick way to determine if we need to be fearful. All we need to do is consult the latest prices for credit default swaps (CDS) for banks and brokers. CDS prices reflect the cost to insure against a default. So if banks are truly about to pull the stock market into the abyss, CDS prices should be rising rapidly.

Guess what? Right now, we have nothing to fear but fear itself. Or, as Bespoke Investment Group says, “Our Bank and Broker CDS Index is now at its lowest level since April 15, 2010. Over the last week alone, financial-sector default risk is down 8.5%, and it’s down 50% over the last year.”

saupload 0513 FinancialCollapse thumb1

So relax. There’s no immediate danger threatening stocks.

The biggest profits are in your patience

Ruhland Andrew - compressed tie horzThe great gold trader Jessie Livermore is credited with saying “The biggest profits are in your patience.” This wisdom rings true whether you are still invested in US equities which continue to rise seemingly incessantly, or you are waiting to play the downside in equity markets.

And if you’ve already exited most or all of the equity positions in your portfolio, you may find yourself feeling rather impatient while waiting for the current market euphoria to end. In a recent article I made reference to the fact that selling the very top of the market and/or buying the very bottom are just meaningless ego-based markers.

“See, look how smart I am – smarter than you!” is external validation what we are (secretly) seeking when we get too focused on getting it just perfect. At some point, “perfect becomes the enemy of excellent,” or as Jim Dines posits “Over-efforting creates counter-vailing forces.”

Perfectionism is one of many outward manifestations of a fear-based, ego-driven personality; perfectionism is an absolute killer when it comes to navigating markets. Selling the top or buying the bottom will obviously result in making maximum profits, but that comes with a big price tag – very high stress. It’s also virtually impossible to be 100% right 100% of the time.

Ultimately, what matters most is whether or not one is generating sufficient returns over the medium to longer term while protecting from major downside in the short term. Essentially it comes down to understanding how much is “enough” return to help us become or remain financially independent. Having a current, comprehensive wealth management plans as a reference makes it much easier to see this mapped out in black and white – it provides context.

When it comes to opportunities to make profits, markets usually provide two to three major opportunities each year. Similar to public transit, there’s always another bus (opportunity) coming along. No one enjoys missing that bus they were just a little too late to hop on board – the key it is not get hurt (i.e. losing money) by chasing the bus you just missed.

The bearish divergences within US stock markets continue to build, fewer stocks are making new highs and the unbridled optimism is on full display on the financial channels. So, could US equities rally another 3-5% before this ends? The answer is both “yes” and “so what?” We are never completely certain in the moment about exactly where the top or the bottom is of any trend, but we don’t need to be certain. Seeking certainty in these circumstances is thinly-disguised perfectionism.

A question we are often asked is how far markets will drop when this rise stops: 8, 10, 12 or maybe 15%? Similar to the question above, the answer is two-fold: “I don’t know,” and “it doesn’t really matter anyway.” Mid to late June MIGHT be the time for a summer low, but we’ll simply wait to see what actually develops and then take appropriate actions when fear reigns supreme. Things might also start to get very interesting around the September 22nd German elections. We’ll go with the flow when we get there.

Precious Metals seem to be behaving according to the view we published a few weeks ago; this view came directly from the work of Martin Armstrong, Bob Hoye/Ross Clark and Charles Nenner. The bounce off the April 15th lows looks like a dead-cat bounce that has already stalled and looks very vulnerable to a full rollover again. Based on these trusted research sources, we expect to see a major tradable low in the whole precious metals space by mid-June, but only time will tell.

Will key technical support in the mid $1,300’s hold this time around, or will that support fail in the midst of other market mayhem (a margin-call-led equity market sell-off?) and we see Gold test the full 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the 2008 low to the 2011 high? If mid $1300’s support is breached, that brings $1158 into play. We don’t know in advance, but we don’t need to, either. See above.

The most prudent (and challenging) course of action is to get ego out of the way, follow what the market dictates, and when fear once again reigns supreme in markets and few people have hope for a turn-around…that will be the environment in which to take meaningful positions in beaten-down sectors with significant upside potential. Then buckle up for the upswing in the pendulum. This is where the serious profits are made – gains that can help make up for slower growth if you’ve not experienced a lot of gains recently.

Patience and Discipline are accretive to your wealth, health and happiness; Fear and Greed are destructive.

Cheers,

Andrew Ruhland, CFP, CPCA

President, Integrated Wealth Management Inc.