Stocks & Equities

Biotech Micro Caps Offer Promise of Mighty Returns

“He’s Looking for Biotech companies that can make it very big from a near zero-base valuation” – Dick Huebner

Dick Huebner knows what he wants. He’s looking for biotech companies that can make it very big from a near zero-base valuation. We’re talking low-end micro caps that bring a lot of risk to the table, along with the opportunity for major gains. In this interview with The Life Sciences Report, GVC Capital’s senior managing partner profiles three publicly traded life sciences stories that could produce generous windfalls for investors, and a private firm about to go public that promises to do the same.

The Life Sciences Report: Dick, it would be interesting to understand a little bit about GVC Capital and its business model. Would you briefly speak to that?

Dick Huebner: Our focus is on raising money for micro-cap companies. Generally, we prefer companies that are already public, because our investors then have some comfort that there is some liquidity in their investment.

TLSR: I’m looking at three public companies that you follow, plus one that is going public soon. These companies have very tiny market caps. How do companies of this size fit into investors’ objectives?

DH: When we raise money, we rely on exemptions from registration, and that necessitates finding accredited investors for these securities. We believe that somewhere between 10–20% of an investor’s portfolio can be in speculative securities. While we do our best to evaluate management, the ideas that they bring to us, and the potential for their products, investments in small companies are risky. Because of their speculative nature, we think investors should hold a number of these companies within their portfolios. That way they can participate in some of the winners, knowing that they may also catch a loser or two.

TLSR: An accredited investor is one who has sufficient net worth, liquidity and sophistication. Does that hold true for your target investor even after a company’s shares have been floated?

DH: Yes. We focus on investors who have financial staying power and can hold the investment for some period of time. These companies carry varying degrees of risk, in part based on liquidity of shares. Obviously, while there can be liquidity issues in micro-cap companies’ securities within the market, individuals willing to accept that risk can participate in owning these companies and the opportunities they present.

TLSR: Do you rely on your investor clients for additional investment in these companies?

DH: Generally, we project a company’s capital needs for a 12–18 month period and establish a minimum in a capital raise to get them through that period of time. Whether we can go out to the existing shareholder/investor base for a subsequent offering depends on management’s execution in the past and the opportunity ahead of it.

TLSR: These tiny micro caps are a kind of venture-capital opportunity for public investors, aren’t they?

DH: Largely, they are.

TLSR: What do you look for in a company?

DH: First, we are industry-agnostic. We look at management, and we do pretty significant background checks. We like operators who have been successful with previous ventures. Regardless of how good an idea is, if a company doesn’t have good managers, a very good idea—or even an excellent idea—can die on the vine.

Then we look at the concept or product. Since we don’t have research analysts of our own, we go to friends of GVC Capital who may be in the particular industry of a potential issuer, and ask for feedback on the opportunity. Does management’s business plan make sense to them? What do they believe the market oportunity may be for a particular product? We have contacts, friends and associates across a spectrum of industries, and we rely on their expertise largely in analyzing the story and the product’s opportunity.

TLSR: There are no analysts at your firm. At GVC you’re either a banker or a broker, is that right?

DH: That’s correct. And some of us are both.

TLSR: Could we talk about some of your ideas?

DH: Most recently, in the life sciences space, we did a deal for nutritional supplement company,MusclePharm Corp. (MSLP:OTCPK). We recently closed a $12M raise for it, which is at the high end of the range that we can raise for a life sciences deal. We’ve done a couple of $18M deals for natural resource companies, but $12M as a sole book manager of an offering is about the top of our capacity in this space. But MusclePharm was growing very fast, and it had significant events in 2012 that impacted its valuation and made that capital raise possible.

We did the offering in January and the deal closed at the beginning of February. The company had about $65M in sales for the trailing 12 months and a $12M premoney valuation, in an industry where companies typically trade at about 1x revenue. There was a lot of interest in the company, and the deal was significantly oversubscribed.

MusclePharm’s management team is particularly good at building a brand, and had been doing a great job of marketing. Though the managers had not been able to show they were capable of producing a profit, they did demonstrate a willingness to move toward that goal, which gave us the comfort we needed to raise money. With a focus on driving profitability and continuing to grow sales in 2013, we thought it was a very good opportunity for investors.

TLSR: I’m just wondering, with the nutritional supplement market being so crowded, what did you see here that made you want to take part in this company?

DH: Here in Denver there have been a few companies that have been pretty successful with that type of product. A company called EAS Sports Nutrition was built and sold (to Abbott Nutrition, a division of Abbott Laboratories [ABT:NYSE]). A retailer of nutritional supplements actually named BodyBuilding.com was sold to Liberty Media Corp. (LSTZB:NASDAQ. A nutritional supplement company by the name of LifeVantage Corp. (LFVN:NASDAQ) also has been pretty successful for investors.

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With that experience, the low valuation relative to its competitors, and the fact that MusclePharm had grown 400% year-over-year for four years in a row, a very compelling story had been created.

TLSR: Dick, MusclePharm has some tremendous sales channels— GNC Holdings Inc. (GNC:NYSE), Dicks Sporting Goods Inc. (DKS:NYSE), Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN:NASDAQ), Vitamin Shoppe Inc. (VSI:NYSE), Bally Total Fitness (private), just to name a few. Are these sellers in any way incentivized to promote MusclePharm’s products?

DH: Not generally, though promotions run from time to time. But I do think it’s important to talk about the company’s unique business model. MusclePharm never puts its hands on the product. It is a marketing and product development company. Its management has structured the company so that production, the financing of the raw materials and the filling of customer orders are all done by the manufacturer.

TLSR: So there are no selling, general and administrative expenses.

DH: The company does have some expense in that category. MusclePharm also has a very significant amount of marketing expense, because it builds product awareness in the marketplace. A large percentage of its sales are done on the Internet, with lower costs. The business model has allowed management to focus on product development and marketing the brand.

TLSR: What differentiates MusclePharm?

DH: As an investment today, it’s history versus the future. Previously, the company had difficulty driving a profit. The controls being put into place, and management’s commitment to adhere to these controls, is the differentiator. Gary Davis (previously of BodyBuilding.com) became the chief financial officer in July 2012. He put pricing and expense controls in place that created better margins for the business. I believe those controls will better enable the company to produce a profit.

TLSR: Would you go to the next company, please?

DHOmni Bio Pharmaceutical, Inc. (OTC: OMBP) is a company we’ve been involved with for more than five years.

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We’ve been through three different management teams in that time. We’ve raised more than $9M over a period of five years.

Omni has exciting science and results around an existing drug with a pristine safety record. The product is a plasma-derived alpha-1-antitrypsin (AAT). It’s currently extracted and purified from the blood by four manufacturers. Historically, AAT has been used to treat emphysema; the cost is in the neighborhood of $100,000/year because of the extraction process.

A scientist by the name of Lee Shapiro believed the drug also had anti-inflammatory qualities. It took him a while to get an audience for this application, and it’s taken us a while to raise a sufficient amount of money to prove it up in both the lab and in humans. In preclinical studies we have seen some success in treating several diseases, including type 1 diabetes, graft-versus-host disease and gout. Other autoimmune diseases may also be treatable with AAT, such as rheumatoid arthritis and lupus.

Omni’s current chief executive officer, Bruce Schneider, who came on board on Jan. 1, 2013, is one of the best managers you could ask for in a small biopharma company. His background includes 35 years at Wyeth Research and then Pfizer Inc. (PFE:NYSE), where he spent a large amount of time as the number two person in charge of new products. He came out of retirement to take the position with Omni because of what he believes about the potential of the company’s science.

TLSR: The company’s science is very interesting. The theory is to take AAT, as you say, and make it into a fusion protein, which is what Enbrel (etanercept; Amgen Inc. [AMGN:NASDAQ]) is. AAT has been used for a long time, but as a fused protein it could be as much as 40 times more powerful, which is what I understand.

DH: That’s correct. And the company may be able to provide the drug much cheaper.

TLSR: It appears this company is three or four years away from clinical proof of concept. I wonder if it should be a public company—if Bruce Schneider might think about taking the company private. If taken private, investors could get a double or a triple overnight, and then the company could do the business of preclinical development without talking to investors every quarter.

DH: It’s hard for me to know what might motivate Schneider in that regard. I know the company is going to need funds down the road to further develop its science. The interest for us and for our investors is in the potential liquidity of this investment. Investors don’t want to be a minority shareholder in a private company. Also, we at GVC generally need a public vehicle to raise money. That is not to say that at some point somebody may want to take one of the company’s assets private.

TLSR: The company has an $11M market cap. What do you think Omni could achieve in valuation as a public company?

DH: The science is very exciting. I’ve listened to a couple of current shareholder presentations in which the company has said that with success with the recombinant version of AAT, it has the potential to be worth hundreds of millions of dollars. We need to find individuals to continue to fund Omni, people who are willing to take the risk of zero return for the potential of a very large multiple return. We’ve had success at this in the past, but it’s hard to go back and ask for more from existing shareholders who have already put money in at higher prices.

TLSR: Could you talk about another company?

DH: I’ve known about VolitionRx Ltd.(PINK:VNRX) for about 17 months. It has a very interesting science surrounding nucleosomes, which are wrapped around DNA. As cells die, cell structures are recycled and nucleosomes are recycled in the blood. As a cancer grows, cells are being created and dying at elevated levels, leading to a higher level of nucleosomes in the blood. Thus, looking at nucleosomes can potentially identify cancer within a person. Nucleosomes also carry markers that can tell researchers where they came from, potentially identifying the type of cancer a patient might have.

Initial clinical tests of the company’s Nucleosomics (branded NuQ) technology have been performed on 100 patients. The tests properly identified patients with cancer in 76% of those presenting colon cancer, 100% of those presenting lung cancer and 96% of those presenting with breast cancer. It had a false positive rate of about 10–20%, which is fairly low. What’s particularly exciting is that the company believes its technology is able to identify targeted cancers in stage 1 and stage 2. Because VolitionRX is a small company, it is focused on only four different types of cancer initially—colorectal, lung, breast and pancreatic cancers. It needs to raise money for its next round of clinical trials.

This is a diagnostic product company, and as such its path to product marketability is much shorter than that of a drug development company. It could have a product on the market for research labs in Europe in 2014, and initially file for 510(k) device approval of its diagnostic within the next 12 months, looking at potentially marketing the product to research labs in the U.S. in 2015. Those dates are quite speculative, but if its trials go well, that would be the timeline.

TLSR: I don’t quite understand Volition’s scientific model. Is this to diagnose cancers that are yet undiagnosed?

DH: Potentially. Also, it could be used for individuals that have been treated for cancer to determine a recurrence.

TLSR: As part of a routine exam?

DH: Correct. It could be used in routine exams or physicals. A very small blood sample is all that is needed. An additional market is for people who have had cancer and are going to the doctor at three-month, six-month and one-year intervals for follow-ups to see if they have recurrence. The VolitionRX test is very inexpensive, and could potentially be run by patients at home.

TLSR: You’re working with one private life sciences company that is going to go public soon. Can you talk about it?

DH: The company is Arrogene Inc., and it has an interesting technology. Arrogene is working on the direct delivery of a drug to tumors. The platform is targeting brain cancer, lung cancer and two types of breast cancers. Arrogene believes it has developed a molecule that can penetrate the blood-brain barrier, which is pretty exciting to think about. The chairman of the scientific advisory overseeing the lab is Keith Black, a world-renowned neurosurgeon specializing in brain tumors. He’s chairman and professor of the department of neurosurgery at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center. Arrogene has a number of scientists working on this technology at Cedars-Sinai, and it holds a lot of promise. The company is looking to be public in the not-too-distant future.

TLSR: Thank you, Dick. It’s been a pleasure.

DH: Thank you very much, George.

Richard Huebner is senior managing partner at Denver-based GVC Capital and a member of the firm’s Commitment Committee, which makes the final decisions on all the banking deals. Huebner joined GVC Capital in October of 2001 in a management capacity to plan and facilitate its growth. He has been in the securities industry for nearly 30 years. His experience includes serving as general counsel for Hanifen, Imhoff Inc. from January 1984 through September 1995. While at the firm, he served in numerous positions, including executive vice president, director and member of the executive committee of Hanifen, Imhoff Holdings Inc. In 1995, Huebner became an executive vice president, director and member of the executive committee of Hanifen, Imhoff Clearing Corp., which was sold to Fiserv Inc. in December 1997. He continued in those capacities for Fiserv Correspondent Services. Huebner received a bachelor’s degree in economics and business administration from Hastings College, and a juris doctorate from the University of Nebraska.

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DISCLOSURE: 
1) George S. Mack conducted this interview for The Life Sciences Report and provides services to The Life Sciences Report as an independent contractor. He or his family own shares of the following companies mentioned in this interview: None.
2) The following companies mentioned in the interview are sponsors of The Life Sciences Report:MusclePharm Corp. Streetwise Reports does not accept stock in exchange for its services or as sponsorship payment.
3) Richard Huebner: I or my family own shares of the following companies mentioned in this interview: Omni Bio Pharmaceutical Inc., Arrogene Inc., MusclePharm Corp. I personally or my family am paid by the following companies mentioned in this interview: None. My company has had a financial relationship with the following companies mentioned in this interview: Omni Bio Pharmaceutical Inc., Arrogene Inc., MusclePharm Corp., VolitionRX Ltd. I was not paid by Streetwise Reports for participating in this interview. Comments and opinions expressed are my own comments and opinions. I had the opportunity to review the interview for accuracy as of the date of the interview and am responsible for the content of the interview. 
4) Interviews are edited for clarity. Streetwise Reports does not make editorial comments or change experts’ statements without their consent. 
5) The interview does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer.
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Stock indexes sag on U.S. growth data

U.S. GDP underwhelmed market

Mixed economic numbers this friday morning.

A disappointing advance GDP report contributed to the early caution as GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.5% during the first quarter of 2013. That is up the fourth quarter’s gain of 0.4%, but below the Briefing.com consensus expectation of a 2.8% gain. The University of Michigan’s final April Consumer Sentiment Survey rose to 76.4 from the 72.3 that was posted in the preliminary Survey. The Briefing.com consensus expected the reading would tick up to 72.4.

It ‘feels’ like the markets are forming a ‘double-top’ as we approach in the widely ‘pooh-poohed’ ‘Sell May and Go Away’ axiom.

Asian stocks today closed mostly lower: Japan -0.30%, Hong Kong +0.65%, China CSI 300 index -0.83%, Taiwan unch, Australia -0.10%, Singapore +0.33%, South Korea -0.57%, India -0.62%, Turkey -0.42%. .

The Dow Jones Industrials were are down 2.92 at 14697.65. On April 19 we traded down to 14444.03 which was a new low as compared to the 14887.51 record high from April 11. The October, 2007 peak of 14198.10 is a theoretical pullback number, but unless we take out 14444.03, forget about the correction to 14198.

The Dow Transports were down 11.13 at 6099.53. They have held recent lows: 5902.82 from April 15 and 5878.12 from April 5. The Transports formed a double-top, i.e., 6215.90 from April 10 versus 6291.65 from March 19. Confirmation of the resumption of the decline would be confirmed under the April 5 low of 5878.22, look for the 5500-5600 area as next support. Bigger picture, possible bullish reverse ‘head and shoulders’ patterns have formed: 1) From July, 2011 to present and 2) May, 2008 to present. The upside measurements are astronomical anywhere from 2600 points from the former to 3400 points to the latter ABOVE CURRENT HIGHS! If this is true and if the Transports are indeed the market leader I believe it is, we have a long way to go in this bull market! But, we would have to take the ‘double-top’ first to give this bullish scenario any more credence.

The S&P 500 was down 6.44 at 1578.73. On April 18, we touched 1536.03 intraday as compared to the new all-time high that was 1597.35 posted back on April 11. It looks like were headed to 1625.00 in the SPX. That said, the next theoretical downside target is 1497 if we take out 1536.03.

The Nasdaq Composite was down 19.03 at 3271.10. The recent low was April 18 at 3154.96 as compared to the 3306.95 bull market high from April 11. We are long PSQ, the inverse ETF for the QQQ and the Nasdaq 100. Under 3154.96, a correction is likely confirmed.

The broad-based NYSI (New York Stock Exchange Index) was down 36.73 at 9152.13. We touched 8890.34 on April 18 as compared to the recent high of 9256.13 which was posted on April 11. Under 8890.15, a correction is likely confirmed.

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which measures the cost of using options as insurance against declines in the S&P 500 (i.e., the higher the number, the more fear in the marketplace) is up .46 at 14.08. On April 18 it surged to 18.20 intraday. On Friday, March 15, it traded as low as 11.21, the lowest level since February 2007, so I guess these are our parameters going forward. The higher we go in the VIX, the more likely a bear cycle is upon us. It looks like we may be headed into the 20s.

Elsewhere in the news:

>The Senate late yesterday before leaving for a week-long recess approved a bill that would halt air-traffic controller furloughs by allowing the FAA to move about $250 million among accounts within its budget. The House is in session today and could approve the bill and pass it along to the President for his signature. That would end four days of flight delays that are causing disruptions for airlines as well as businesses.

>The Bank of Japan at its 2-day policy meeting left its aggressive new QE plan unchanged. The median estimate of BOJ board members is that Japan’s core inflation rate, excluding fresh food and sales tax increases, will rise to +1.9% y/y in the 2015-16 fiscal year (starting in April 2015) from the current -0.5% y/y level. The general market opinion is that the BOJ will have significant difficulty hitting that target given the deflationary forces in the Japanese economy. The BOJ may ease further later this year if inflation has not started rising quickly enough.

Japan’s March national CPI eased to -0.9% y/y from -0.7% in Feb and was weaker than market expectations of -0.8%. March CPI ex-fresh food fell by -0.5% y/y from -0.3% y/y in Feb and was weaker than market expectations of -0.4% y/y. Tokyo’s April CPI improved to -0.7% y/y from -1.0% in March. The April Tokyo CPI ex-fresh food improved to -0.3% y/y from -0.5% in March. >The German March import price index fell to -2.3% y/y from -1.6% in Feb and was in line with market expectations.

>Eurozone March M3 eased to +2.6% y/y from +3.1% in Feb and was weaker than market expectations of +3.0%.

—————————————- Eight of the nine market sectors are lower today.

XLB -1,67% Materials XLE -0.72% Energy XLF -0.75% Financial XLI -0.39% Industrial XLK -0.33% Technology XLP -0.05% Consumer Staples XLU +0.27% Utilities XLV -0.26% Health Care XLY -0.68% Consumer Discretionary ——————————————— NYSE Advance/Decline 1272/2581. NASDAQ Advance/Decline 754/1570 NYSE UP volume to DOWN volume was 1 to 2. NASDAQ UP volume to DOWN volume was 3 to 5. ——————————————– From the VRtrader.com website here is a link to World Market Indices:

http://www.vrtrader.com/vr_free/worldmarkets/index.asp ——————————————- Gold and silver (spot) – action alert – bull-more bullish as the price declines!

Spot gold is down 15.50 at 1452.70, but was higher earlier trading t 1484.10, almost exactly up a $150 from the 1334.90 low from April 15. In overnight trading we touched 1487.50. Next potential upside is 1520 on a further technical rebound, but I’m not holding my breath. Have we seen the lows? I believe we’re in a complicated base-building process which may include new lows. Since we satisfied long standing downside potential into the 1300-1400 range, it is possible the worst is also behind us. All we can do is take it a day at a time.

Following this week’s surge in gold prices, the majority of analysts in the weekly Kitco News Gold Survey expect prices to continue to rise. In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 35 participants, 24 responded this week. Of those 24 participants, 14 see prices up, while eight see prices down, and two see prices moving sideways or are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders, money managers and technical-chart analysts. Many of the participants were encouraged by the unprecedented demand in the physical gold market and the influence that’s had on lifting benchmark futures prices. Because of the $100-plus an ounce rebound from last week’s lows, they see values marching higher. There others who are bullish, but said the speed of the rallies should be watched carefully. “I remain short-term positive, but get nervous at the $1,520-$1,530 level, if we get there quickly,” said Mark Leibovit, editor of the VR Gold Letter. The few participants who were neutral or expected range-bound prices said the market might just be in a holding period for the time being.

Long-term investors can begin accumulating more physical gold here with the understanding downside risk could be toward or under 1100 if we equal the 1975 45% correction seen at that time. Another theoretical downside target would be 1000 points off the top or 922. Keep these in mind as you accumulate gold. we could have also seen the lows. we will only know in the fullness of time! This entire washout was, in my view, ‘intentional’ price destruction to discourage buyers as the risk of a default at the COMEX and elsewhere drew close. Too many investors demanding physical delivery and with the inability to deliver, the ‘powers that be’ had to drive ‘paper’ prices lower to discourage those wishing to take delivery – in the hope they could also replenish their dwindling stockpile of needed physical. Resistance above 1520.00 is 1618.50, 1663.20, 1698.80 and 1796.70 from October 4, 2011 to make a call for a breakout above the September, 2011 peak at 1922. —————- Silver is off .60 at 23.80 touching 24.64 earlier in the session. Next bounce potential is resistance at the old 26.00 old. We touched 22.52 on Tuesday, the lowest low of the current downleg. If that low comes out, next support is 21.00 then 19.00 with downside potential even to 14.00. To re-establish the uptrend we need to clear 28.20, 29.48, 32.58 and then 35.32, but a technical bounce back to resistance at 26.00 can occur anytime. —————-

Bonds – action alert – neutral

Thirty-year Treasury bonds (June) are higher up 29/32 to 148 27/32. They traded at 149 6/32 (a new rally peak) on April 23. If TLT fills an upside gap at 119.67, we may consider going long again. That said, longer term my work points lower toward the 133 to 138 range in the Treasury Bonds themselves which would roughly equate to TLT in the 104 to 109 range

——————————————–  COMMODITIES AND RESOURCES ———————————————  Platinum – summary

Platinum is up 9.00 at 1472.00, now trading at a slight premium over gold. Yesterday, gold and platinum were trading at the same price. Next resistance is 1495.00. The April 15 low is 1394.00 is the current reaction low as compared to the 1745.00 posted on February 7. The big low of 731 on October 27, 2008 and the record high of 2308.80 that preceded it back on March 4, 2008. There is still plenty of upside potential here, but I currently have no new technical projections in either direction.

——————————————– Palladium – summary

Palladium is unchanged at 680.00, but traded a new recovery peak of 691.00 earlier in the session. The April 15 low was 651.00. Next resistance is 701.00. The recent high is 791.00 from March 8. I have technical projections in Palladium into the 825-875 range down the road, so Palladium is a buy on weakness, but I am hoping to get volume confirmation of a bottom before doing any new buying. After trading at a 10-year high of 862 on February 18, 2011, the big low was posted back on November 28, 2008 at 154. Looking way back, however, Palladium hit an all-time high of 968.00 back in December, 2000. As you know, Palladium’s fortune as is with Platinum is somewhat tied to the economy and the automobile industry. ——————————————–Copper – summary

Copper is off .0495 at 3.1850. On Tuesday, we touched a new reaction at 3.0570. The current short-term trading range is bounded by yesterday’s 3.0570 low and the April 9 peak of 3.4405. Resistance is now here at 3.25, then 3.44, 3.48, 3.5605, 3.5905, 3.7935 and the 3.8520 high from September 14, 2012. Support is 3.06 and 2.85. The record high of 4.6495 was posted on February 15, 2011. With Copper being both volatile a leading indicator for world economies, watching its trend becomes very important. In my work, the next upside target is 4.00 followed by 4.50, 5.05, 5.55 and then possibly 7.00 over the next few years. Recall, Copper had hit a bear market low of 1.2710 back on December 26, 2008. Recall, Copper had hit a bear market low of 1.2710 back on December 26, 2008.

——————————————— U.S. dollar and other currencies – summary

The U.S. dollar is down .257 at 82.487. Corrective risk remains first at 80.87. If we continue to push higher and take out the April 4 high of 83.494, the next upside target would be the July, 2012 high at 84.25 with potential to the June, 2010 high of 88.80. I still, however, have my longer term negative bias. When and if we break under 70.008, the correction resumes, possibly quite significantly. My downside target range is a low target of .30 and a high target of .66. Its recent low was posted on September 14th at 78.601. ——————————————–  Uranium – summary

Spot Uranium traded down to 40.25 off .50 in the April 22 posting at www.uxc.com. This is the cash market. Uranium has swung from the June 13, 2007 high of 154.95 down to current levels. There is no sign of a meaningful bottom in uranium or the shares at this time ——————————————-  Crude oil – summary

Crude Oil is down .84 at 92.80. The April 18 low was 85.61. So, the current trading range is now bounded by the 98.24 high from January 30 and 85.61 from April 18. As I told you, a technical bounce back to 95.00 appears to be underway and, so far, we touched 94.87 on Thursday. Resistance is first 93.87, 95.00 followed by 97.80, 98.24 and 104.00. Support is at 83.00. ——————————————— Natural gas – summary

Natural gas is down .074 at 4.093.. We exited UNG – the Natural Gas ETF on April 15 and have been watching from the sidelines looking to get back long UNG. The recent high is 4.429 on April 18. Natural gas hit a 10-year low of 1.902 on April 20, 2012. ———————————————Canadian summary: ——————————————— The Canadian dollar (using FXC) was up .58 at 97.55. On April 4 we ‘rang the register’ in our long FXC position. The forecasted technical bounce back to 98.10-98.60 range occurred when we traded at 98.42. Previously, a new reaction of 96.15 was posted on March 6 as compared to the September 14 high at 102.96. I cannot say whether 96.15 will hold or not. Support numbers are 96.15, 95.30, 94.72, 93.20, 92.50 91.82, 91.00, 89.75, 87.50 and 85.18. Resistance is 9810-98.60, 99.88. 101.74, 102.07, 103.08, 105.59, 108.00, 110.00, 113.00. We need a rally above 101.29 to re-establish the uptrend. My next upside target was 110.00. Big picture potential is, believe it or not, 200.00, so I am patient, but we’re now clearly in a correction.

The TSX is down 124.54 at 12204.97. The April 17 correction low is 11916.64, as compared to the 12875.35 peak from back on January 24. We could bounce up to 12415.00 over the short-term.

The TSX Venture is down 4.42 at 960.25. The April 17 correction low was 917.83 as compared to the previous 1017.59 low from back on April 4. We could bounce back to 1017.59.

CANADIAN TSX:

Resistance is 12,555, 12,415, 12,623, 12,904, 13,000, 13,120, 13,517, 13,901, 14,089, 14,329, 14,715, 15,000, 15,600. Support is 11,916, 11,761, 11,630, 11,475, 11,366, 11,256, 10,798-10,848, 10,700, 10,200.

CANADIAN TSX Venture:

Resistance: 1017, 1068, 1090, 1113, 1122, 1153, 1170, 1191, 1245, 1259, 1306, 1322, 1348, 1436, 1473, 1573. Support: 917 and beyond that unknown. ———————————————

 

Leibovit2012-resize-100x100About the Author:

Mark Leibovit

Mark Leibovit’s career in the financial industry spans more than 35 years, beginning as a market maker on the Chicago Board Options Exchange and the Midwest Options Exchange where he made a market in many issues, including Newmont Mining, and continuing on to serve as Director of Technical Research at Rodman and Renshaw, later leaving to publish his own stock market research letter. He is both a Certified Investment Management Analyst (CIMA) and Accredited Investment Fiduciary (AIF), and is also a member of the Market Technicians Association and the CFA Institute. Mr.Leibovit’s extensive media television profile includes seven years as a consultant ‘Elf’ on “Louis Rukeyser’s Wall Street Week” television program, and over thirty years as a Market Monitor guest for PBS “The Nightly Business Report”. He also has appeared on Fox Business News, CNBC, BNN (Canada), and Bloomberg, and has been interviewed in Barrons, Business Week, Forbes and The Wall Street Journal to name a few. Mr.Leibovit’s specialty is Volume Analysis with his proprietary Leibovit Volume Reversal Indicator. He is well known for forecasting accurate signals of trend direction and reversals in the equity, metals and futures markets. He has historical experience recognizing, bull and bear markets and signaling alerts prior to market crashes. His comprehensive study on Volume Analysis, The Trader’s Book of Volume was recently released by McGraw-Hill 2011. Mark has appeared in speaking engagements and seminars in the U.S. and Canada and provides customized Volume Analysis for managers and institutions. He publishes a newsletter on the gold, metals and mining markets which can be found at (www.vrgoldletter.com) . His flagship service, VRtrader.com covers all markets. Mr. Leibovit is currently Timer Digest’s #2 Gold Market timer for 2011, and has also been named the #1 Gold Market timer for the 5 year period ending in 2010, and the #1 Intermediate Stock Market timer for the 10-year period ending in 2007.

 

Faber: U.S. Stocks overbought, could Crash this summer

Unknown-1U.S. stocks are overbought, , and any more near-term gains are going to be big trouble for the market. As we continue to move higher, the probability of a crash becomes higher as well. The next crash, he says, could be worse than the one that crushed world markets in 2008. “The next crisis could lead to a deflationary bust. And a bust in governments. In other words, we may have a total collapse in confidence in the system.” – in CNBC

It is not a very good time to Buy Stocks

Marc Faber: “We could on the S&P make a new high,” “but with very few stocks making new highs.” “It’s not a very good time to buy stocks,” Faber warned, arguing that stocks are not at the beginning of a bull market as many analysts have predicted on “Squawk Box” over the past few weeks. “The next crisis could lead to a deflationary bust. And a bust in governments. In other words, we may have a total collapse in confidence in the system.” – in a recent interview on CNBC

WE ARE JUST CLIMBING TO A HIGHER DIVING BOARD

Marc Faber: “I love it because we are just climbing to a higher diving board…if we don’t get the correction in February or March and we go straight up like in ’87, the probability of a crash increases.” – in Bloomberg Surveillance
 

WE ARE CREATING BUBBLES AND BUBBLES AND BUBBLES

 Marc Faber : “We are creating bubbles and bubbles and bubbles. This bubble will come to an end. My concern is that we are going to have a systemic crisis where it is going to be very difficult to hide. Even in gold, it will be difficult to hide.” – in Bloomberg Surveillance
 
 
About Marc Faber:
 
Marc Faber is a Swiss investor. Faber is publisher of the Gloom Boom & Doom Report newsletter and is the director of Marc Faber Ltd which acts as an investment advisor and fund manager. These postings above can be found on his marcfaberchannel.blogspot.ca

 

Trends in Asset Classes set to Shift

The latest warning sign on US equities came from the recent issue of Barron’s. A recent survey of big money managers showed extreme bullish sentiment. 86% polled were bullish on stocks over the next six to 12 months while only 7% were pessimistic. Meanwhile only 11% were bullish on bonds. The cover of Barron’s emphasized the view of the participants with its title “Dow 16,000” and picture of a bull, leaping away from a bear. In regards to Gold and commodities, 50% were bullish on commodities with 35% bullish on Gold.

I’ve provided a chart from the recent Merrill Lynch Fund Manager survey which I find more instructive. It shows fund managers as the most underweight commodities since January 2009. Also note that commodity prices have yet to surpass their 2012 low though fund managers are more bearish than at that time.

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So we have extreme bullish sentiment on stocks and a different view on bonds and commodities. If equities are due for a fall, which asset class would benefit? My initial guess would be bonds. In recent months commodities have really struggled while bonds have started to turn higher amid negative sentiment. The bullish consensus is only 43% for bonds. Last summer when bonds peaked it was 80%. The fact that bonds are rallying amid terrible sentiment is a sign of strength and sustainability. More money could move into bonds and propel them to another all-time high while stocks go sideways and commodities try to find a bottom.

With respect to hard assets, let’s remember that fears of deflation often act as a catalyst for Gold and commodities. Need an example? How about the performance of gold stocks from 1931 to 1935. Commodities were in a bull market from 1933 to 1951. Remember the fears of deflation in 2001 and 2002? That was a marvelous time to buy commodities. Oh and let us not forget 2008. This is not to say you should run out and buy commodities at this moment. Fears of deflation usually instigate large declines in precious metals and hard assets before they eventually rebound and move much higher. That is what history tells us.

History also shows us that Gold can rally with bonds. The chart below shows bonds, Gold and a 50-week rolling correlation between the two. We’ve highlighted times when both assets have gained together. Also note how often the correlation is in positive territory.

apr26edgoldbonds

 

Given that precious metals usually lead commodities, it’s possible that precious metals have discounted to a large degree the coming breakout in bonds and growing fears of deflation.

Why do stocks continue to perform well? The market is being lead by safe sectors and dividend paying companies. Investors are not worried about inflation but they are worried about the economy. Thus, they have piled into safe dividend paying companies where they can get yield better than most bonds.

Europe is mired in recession and the only positive, Germany, looks headed for recession. This would obviously bode well for bonds and precious metals being so oversold, could rally on hopes of some action from the ECB.

In the coming weeks and months, look for bonds to assume market leadership, stocks to stagnate and precious metals to recover some losses from the devastating selloff. This view is not only supported by technicals and sentiment but by economic fundamentals. Weakness in Europe is spreading to Germany while the US economy is likely to slow further in the spring (if it’s even mathematically possible to slow from an already slow rate).

More importantly, the relationship between precious metals and stocks (over the past 20 months) is very instructive. Precious metals have performed poorly recently because of receding inflation and because stocks have performed well. (When stocks perform well, precious metals will struggle). As we noted above, stocks are performing well because dividend yields are higher than you can get in a savings account or on government bonds. It’s a safe-haven, anti-inflation play that is a step up (risk-wise) from bonds. Ultimately, when inflation picks up (late 2014) money will move out of stocks and bonds and into precious metals and secondarily, commodities. That is the big driver for the next cyclical bear market in stocks, the start of the next secular bear market in bonds and the final cyclical bull market in precious metals and commodities.

As for the short-term, I would watch precious metals miners for hints. The stocks lead the metals and they lead this big move down. Currently they are more oversold than 2008 (according to RSI, bullish percent index and volume) and have started to rally a bit. Look for the HUI to fill its gaps up to 320 in the short-term. If you’d be interested in professional guidance in uncovering the producers and explorers poised for big gains in the next few years then we invite you to learn more about our service.  

Good Luck!

 

Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT

Jordan@TheDailyGold.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Time to Cash in Your Chips

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We don’t like the looks of it…

Advisors are too bullish. Investors are too complacent. The financial authorities are too confident.

All up and down Wall Street… in central banks and in Washington… the stuff that goeth before the fall is thick, sticky and stinky.

The economy is recovering, they say. The Fed has the situation in hand, they add. Don’t worry… we know what we’re doing, they assure us.

barronsFrontCoversmBarron’s magazine says the Dow is going to 16,000, illustrated with a picture of a bull on a pogo stick.

Prime Minister Abe says he’ll revive the Japanese economy by printing yen to buy Japanese bonds. And speculators take each hint from the Fed as though it were a whisper from God Himself.

And all around them, the real economy struggles to stay even. Here’s David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff with 12 signs that the economy is weaker than we think:

  • Household employment (-206,000 in March, the steepest decline in well over a year).

  • Real retail sales (-0.3% in March, down for the second time in three months).

  • Manufacturing production (-0.1% and also down in two of the past three months).

  • Core capex orders (-3.2% in February and, again, down in two of the past three months).

  • Single-family housing starts (-4.8% in March and negative for two of the past three months, as well).

  • New home sales (-4.6% in February).

  • Philly Fed for April down to 1.3 from 2 .

  • NY Fed Empire manufacturing index down to 3.05 from 9.24.

  • NAHB Housing Market I ndex down to a six-month low of 42 in April from 44.

  • Conference Board C onsumer C onfidence I ndex down to 59.7 in March from 68.

  • University of Michigan consumer sentiment down to 72.3 for April from 78.6, the lowest in over a year.

  • Conference Board leading indicators down 0.1% in March, first decline in seven months.

Markets Make Opinions

Facts, figures, statistics…

Do you believe them, dear reader? We don’t. We’re just giving the dreamers a little taste of their own medicine.

“Markets make the opinions,” say the old timers. When prices are up, people share the opinion that they are going up. When prices go down, opinions change with falling prices.

And when prices rise, the opinion mongers look for reasons to explain why they have become so bullish. They find indexes, statistics, numbers – all the “facts” confirm their opinion. When prices fall, their opinions grow dark and they need to find new facts that they can use to justify a counter view.

Get a feeling. Form an opinion. Find a fact and pretend that you are a rational, reasonable investor. That’s the name of the game.

But are we any different?

Not at all. We’re just crankier. More cynical. And less impressed by authority in all its forms. Besides, we’ve been living in Argentina.

If a Nobel Prize-winning economist tells us that the economy is improving, what do we really know? We know he can talk!

If the president tells us that he and his friends are making the world a better place, what do we do? We laugh!

If a leading financial magazine tells us that the “Big Money” firmly believes the Dow is headed higher, what do we do?

We seriously consider selling!

From bearish fund manager John Hussman: “Rule o’ Thumb: When the cover of a major financial magazine features a cartoon of a bull leaping through the air on a pogo stick, it’s probably about time to cash in the chips.”

Regards,

bbonner-sig

Bill