Bullish predictions drive Wall Street’s casino

Wharton School economist Jeremy Siegel, author of two classics, “Stocks For the Long Run” and “The Future for Investors,” is one of America’s most respected financial minds. He recently told cable channel CNBC that Dow 15,000 was “definite,” with 50-50 odds of Dow 17,000 by year-end 2013.

He even doubled down in Kiplinger’s: “My Dow 17,000 projection may turn out to be too timid.” Now that’s real bull, a 20%-plus gain for 2013.

…..read more HERE

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A Winter 2013 Educational Workshop Series

#1 – Trading Workshop with Larry Berman – click to register
* Wednesday – February 20, 2013 at 7:00PM
* MacEwan Conference Centre at the University of Calgary – 402 Collegiate Blvd NW

– Co-Founder of the Independent Investor Institute and ETF Capital Management.
– Larry Berman speaking plus a live “Berman’s Call” for the final half hour

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* Wed February 27, 2013 7-8:30 PM
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– How to Reduce your Personal Investment Stress
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You Should Attend If You Are:
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“Either the market is going to correct more meaningfully now or we have a shallow correction and a continuously rising market until July or August,”. If stocks don’t pullback soon, he says we risk a repeat of 1987 when stocks rallied 40% into summer only to collapse 41% in 2 months. 

“In March of 2009 everything looked horrible, now nobody can find a reason why stocks could go down,” “We ask that you should buy stocks when everything looks horrible, you shouldn’t rush to buy them when everything looks perfect.””If you have 100% of your money in equities and you just bought them now, maybe you should reassess your position,”

Ed Note: Faber makes several powerful points in the 5 minute video above. Faber begins speaking at the 18 second mark. 

Here’s the 1987 chart – you can see how monumental that 508 point (22.6%) 1987 drop was:

For the first time since the recovery began, Warren Buffett’s favorite valuation metric has breached the 100% level.  That, of course, is the Wilshire 5,000 total market cap index relative to GNP.  See the chart below for historical reference.

……read more HERE

With the non-inflation-adjusted Dow is trading 1% below its all-time record high, today’s chart provides some long-term perspective with a chart of the inflation-adjusted Dow since 1900. Of interest is that the inflation-adjusted Dow has traded within the confines of an extremely long-term upward sloping trend channel over the past 113 years. It is also of interest that the secular bear market that concluded in the early 1980s was almost as severe as the one that concluded in the early 1930s. Also, while the market action from the inflation-adjusted record high of 1999 to the financial crisis lows of 2009 was severe, the magnitude of this decline was much less than what occurred with the bear markets that concluded in the early 1930s and early 1980s. More recently, the Dow has retraced most of the financial crisis bear market though the inflation-adjusted Dow currently trades 10.6% off its 1999 record high. While the inflation-adjusted Dow is not quite as near record highs as is the non-inflation-adjusted Dow, the post-financial crisis rally would have to be considered a rather dramatic turn of events — inflation-adjusted or not.

Quote of the Day
“If you want to succeed you should strike out on new paths, rather than travel the worn paths of accepted success.” – John D. Rockefeller

Events of the Day
February 13, 2013 – Ash Wednesday
February 14, 2013 – Valentine’s Day
February 17, 2013 – NBA All-Star Game – Daytona 500 – Academy Awards
February 18, 2013 – President’s Day – Washington’s Birthday (observed)
February 24, 2013 – Daytona 500 – Academy Awards

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— You can also quickly review the performance, dividend yield and market capitalization for each of the Dow Jones Industrial Average Companies as well as for each of the S&P 500 Companies.

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Notes:
Where’s the Dow headed? The answer may surprise you. Find out right now with the exclusive & Barron’s recommended charts of Chart of the Day Plus.