Stocks & Equities

Coming US Selling Bonanza Will Be Worse Than 2008

Schiff, who famously warned investors about the housing and financial crisis in his 2007 book Crash Proof, says the Fed’s palliative efforts during the housing meltdown have made the next crisis inevitable.

The picture Mr Schiff paints is depressingly clear and plausible. It might be different this time, then again probably not. Holding real assets like gold and silver and staying out of the US dollar are his main recommendations… (Ed Note: scroll Down for his Top 3 Recommendations).

According to Euro Pacific Capital‘s CEO Schiff, the U.S. economy is heading for an economic crash that will make 2008 look like a walk in the park. Stimulus programs can delay this day of reckoning, but only for so long and only at the expense of making the eventual meltdown much, much worse.

“We’ve got a much bigger collapse coming, and not just of the markets but of the economy,” Schiff says in the attached clip. “It’s like what you’re seeing in Europe right now, only worse.”

In this nightmare scenario detailed in The Real Crash: America’s Coming Bankruptcy, the current economic pause is actually the beginning of a material slowdown or recession into year end. At that point, the Federal Reserve will unleash a third round of Quantitative Easing — weakening the dollar without jump-starting the economy. As a result of dollar weakness, import prices rise, pressing the margins of corporate America. Lower margins lead to heavy layoffs, sending millions of workers into unemployment during a time when they can least afford it. Banks fail, housing collapses, and taxes are raised in a futile effort to give the tapped-out government the capital to try yet more futile stimulus.

“That’s when it really is going to get interesting, because that’s when we hit our real fiscal cliff, when we’re going to have to slash — and I mean slash — government spending,” says Schiff.

Those cuts will not be at all unlike the draconian austerity measures in Greece, with programs like Social Security and Medicare being dramatically cut or possibly disappearing entirely. The easiest way to put it, is that everything you don’t think could possibly happen in America will come to be.

“Alternatively, we can bail everybody out, pretend we can print our way out of a crisis, and, instead, we have runaway inflation, or hyper-inflation, which is going to be far worse than the collapse we would have if we did the right thing and just let everything implode,” he offers.

So what should investors do to protect themselves? Schiff has three suggestions:

1. Get Out of Treasuries

The U.S. dollar is going to get trashed in Schiff’s scenario. Locking in a yield on a government 10-year bond of 1.5% is a paltry return in the first place. Should inflation tick up to even 5%, a level much lower than that seen in the early 1980s, bond owners would have 3.5% less buying power at the end of every year. If they go to sell the bond, they’ll only find buyers at a much lower price than what they paid.

2. Own the Right Stocks

With bonds and the dollar bearing the brunt of the pain, Schiff says stocks will outperform dramatically, provided you own the right ones. Exporters and multi-national corporations will benefit from a weak dollar. Better still would be to buy foreign stocks and avoid the U.S. entirely.

3. Buy Silver and Gold

Schiff says the recent weakness in these precious metals is just a pause as we wait for the other shoe to drop. Most of those on Main Street haven’t even taken positions yet in gold or silver. Once they start dropping bonds and looking for a place to hide, the price of these metals will soar.

Are you preparing for a major U.S. market and economic meltdown?

 

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FAIR USE NOTICE: This video may contain copyrighted material. Such material is made available for educational purposes only. This constitutes a ‘fair use’ of any such copyrighted material as provided for in Title 17 U.S.C. section 107 of the US Copyright Law.

 

Be Careful!: “The LIBOR Scandal Is “Huge”

The LIBOR scandal that has engulfed London’s financial and political elites is entering its third week and picking up steam on this side of the Atlantic.

Among the latest developments:

  • The NY Times reports the Justice Department’s criminal division is “building cases against several financial institutions and their employees.”
  • State Attorneys General in New York and Connecticut are investigating whether states incurred losses because of LIBOR manipulation which “could lead to a wider multi-state enforcement action,” The WSJ reports.
  • Top officials of the British version of the SEC, the Financial Services Authority, will testify before Parliament on why regulators failed to respond to concerns about LIBOR rigging going back to 2008. Congress is set to hold similarly themed hearings later this week and Fed chairman Ben Bernanke is almost certain to be asked about the matter when he testifies on Capitol Hill Tuesday and Wednesday.

Comment via Richard Russell of Dow Theory Letters:

“This is probably a good time to re-post a chart of GDOW, which is the Global Dow, an equal-weighted index of 150 blue chip stocks from around the world. GDOW provides a good insight as to the health of the world’s stock markets. The GDOW index is now in a head & shoulders formation with support at 1700. Support at 1700 better hold! If GDOW breaks below 1700, I think it will signal a world recession or depression. .Listening to the financial news, it all seems to be about four matters: (1) US unemployment (2) the state of China’s finances (3) whether the Fed will pull the QE3 trigger or not and (4) the Libor mess.

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In the accompanying video, taped Friday, I discuss the scandal with former New York Governor and Wall Street prosecutor Eliot Spitzer.

“LIBOR is huge,” Spitzer says. “This is about as big as it gets in the financial world. [LIBOR] goes to the heart of every piece of debt that’s issued to consumers — your auto loan, your credit card debt.” (click on photo or HERE to view the entire interview)

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also:

Cenk Uygur discusses how Barclay’s LIBOR scandal effects you, and how it effects the bankers that caused the scandal. Cenk also discusses the recent news that Tim Geithner knew about the scandal in 2007 and choose not to take any action. Tell us in the comment section below what you think about the LIBOR scandal.

 

 

Stock Market Blithely Ignores ‘Perfect Storm’

With last week’s powerful finishing stroke, the U.S. stock market continued to thumb its nose at reality, rampaging higher on economic news that seems to be getting worse by the day. Around mid-week, readers of the Wall Street Journal could have glimpsed a perfect storm gathering on the horizon. Numerous articles spread across two inside pages summed up a darkening global economic picture. We learned that China’s economy is decelerating at a rapid pace, Europe’s is dead on arrival despite blather about further stimulus, and even a lean and muscular Brazil has cut interest rates to get in step with increasingly desperate central banks around the world. In the U.S., a carefully spun recovery story was starting to unravel just in time for the election with warnings that Q2 earnings are going to stink. It would appear that the jobless “recovery” is finally starting to take its toll on consumer spending. Henry Ford was right after all:business prospers only when companies are hiring workers and paying them well. Meanwhile, so much for the notion that a lean, mean manufacturing sector is going to lead America back to prosperity. In fact, perhaps for lack of products to sell the world, the U.S. trade deficit has begun to grow anew. This problem barely gets a mention in the news these days, presumably because other problems, most particularly stagnant U.S. incomes, falling consumer confidence and intractable unemployment seem more immediate and potentially fatal.

Through it all, and despite a global picture that is as grim as any we can recall, the Dow Industrials finished the week with a 204-point upstroke that was as blithe as it was bizarre. Bearish as we’ve been, we saw it coming. The night before, under the headline “Big Dow Rally Ahead?” Rick’s Picks alluded to a technical picture suggesting that U.S. stocks were poised for a powerful surge – one that could add 500 points to the Dow. With Friday’s explosion, we are already 40% of the way there. Although our gut feeling until very recently was that U.S. stocks would collapse this summer, the charts are telling a different story – and we have eheded them. In particular, our key bellwether, Apple, appeared to be getting traction for a run-up to new all-time highs. If so, it seems not merely likely but practically certain that the company’s shares will lead the broad averages higher. [Click here for a trial subscription that will give you real-time access to our analysis of the stock.] Hard to believe that stocks could embark on a major bull leg, considering the worsening economic picture. Some might infer that it is impossible for the broad averages to collapse, given the tidal swell of funny money that has been unleashed on financial assets by the central banks. It is a gaseous cloud, as far as we’re concerned, and therefore vulnerable to instantaneous collapse. Traders eager to ride the Dow to our target 300 points above current levels should take note of this, with an eye toward the fire escape.

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Trading stocks, options and commodities in these treacherous times calls for great patience and skill. Click here if you’d like to see how Rick’s Picks approaches the challenge.

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Trouble in River City

STOCKS – ACTION ALERT- BULL (Into the Fall)

Things aren’t looking too good in ‘River City’ (from ‘Music Man’ fame). I previously told you that I was looking for the upside gap in the S&P 500 around 1335 to be filled and that coupled with a Leibovit Negative Volume Reversal turned me cautious late last week. At that time I recommended a double-inverse ETF play for Platinum subscribers. It appears jumping back on a BUY (BULL) signal (June 29) from my previous SELL signal was premature. If the S&P 500 cannot find support here in the 1330s, I’m afraid we’re looking a possible retest or break under the June 4 low at 1266.74. Volume is negative.

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Yesterday, San Bernardino (without a lot of fanfare) announced it was going to seek bankruptcy protection – the third California city to do so in the past month. Do you think the average person on the street cares or even the so-called sophisticated Wall Street trader or investor? There is an eerie complacency out there. It’s really scary. Could another ‘Flash Crash’ be lurking around the corner? If the banks can be bailed out, why not municipalities? That must be the mentality. Bernanke and gang released the minutes of the recent Fed meeting and it showed little urgency for a QE3. The problem, of course, is that QE3 or QE10 won’t solve the problem. All it will do is put more cash into the hands of the bankster vermin and drive stock prices higher. It will do little or nothing to solve the huge debt bubble and certainly won’t help the arrogant sense of entitlement that exists in the this country and the Western world. Until we’re ready to follow the path of Iceland and disavow the banks and the debt and, yes, that means bond holders and creditors will lose money, others will lose their homes, but until that occurs fiscal Armageddon remains waiting for us around the corner. We’re seeing it the bankruptcy of American cities. We’re saw it at MF Global and now at PFG. We’re seeing it in frustration of our young people who can’t find jobs, we’re seeing it in the eyes of the baby-boomers and elderly who see much of what they’ve worked for and earned being taken from them. Pumping the Dow Industrials to new highs will make the fat cats feel better, but will do little to help our nation.

 Mark Leibovit’s Gold Letter, # 1 Gold Timer for 10 year period & #2 Gold Timer for 2011

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“On Friday morning I warned that a July swoon may be ahead”

STOCKS – ACTION ALERT – BULL

Looks like we experienced the both the best and worst of ‘Turnaround Tuesday’ yesterday and even perhaps a slice of ‘Weird Wollie Wednesday’ at the same time. As you know markets rallied early yesterday (actually quite sharply) following the ‘expected’ pattern of a rally following Monday’s weakness. Then the market started to sell-off sharply which is more attuned to a ‘Weird Wollie’ pattern.

On Friday morning I warned that a July swoon may be ahead. Equity markets reached an overbought condition and the Fourth of July fireworks show had ended. A Leibovit Negative Volume Reversal had formed and we should be heading south to at least fill the upside gap from June 27. In the S&P 500 that would equate to 1335.00. We touched 1336.27 yesterday.

Volume is negative, but we’re already approaching an oversold state. I am awaiting confirmation of a bottom before jumping back in on the long side with regard to long index ETFs, just in case this decline accelerates following somewhat the 2010 and 2011 summer patterns. Downside risk is difficult to measure during this timeframe, so we’re taking it one day at a time. We took profits in our inverse S&P 500 ETF position on Monday and hesitated to jump back in that position during the Tuesday morning rally. Even so, I would have ‘rung the register’ with the S&P approaching the previously predicted gap. – Mark Leibovit of VRTrader

From the VRtrader.com website here is a link to World Market Indices:

http://www.vrtrader.com/vr_free/worldmarkets/index.

 

Outlook for August – Investors Beware! S&P 500 Technical & Seasonal Status – by Brooke Thackray Market Letter

Investors should be cautious in August. Although it is possible for the stock market to produce a positive return, August is typically one of the weaker months of the year and is not a good time to take large risks in the stock market. This is particularly true given the current backdrop of a slowing global economy.

Last month when I was writing the June newsletter the S&P 500 was at the 1325 level. Currently we are only nominally  above this level. Although the market rallied strongly at the end of the month, it has since pulled back and sits under the resistance level in the 1350 range. If much better than expected earnings do materialize it is possible that the S&P 500 will once again challenge the 1400 level. Currently, analysts are expecting a decrease in earnings of 1.8% this quarter (Bloomberg). Investors should note that even if earnings do be beat their estimates by a small amount, the market will probably maintain a neutral bias, or even slightly negative bias. When the expectations are so low, just meeting expectations is not good enough.

 
August and September tend to be weak months and from a seasonal basis it does not typically pay to take large investment risks. Investors should maintain a cautious stance in the market at this time. Investors should focus on investing in the defensive sectors of the market. Assuming that Europe continues to muddle through (a good assumption), and the earnings numbers are not much better than expected, the market will be in trouble. Recently, the economic numbers have been getting weaker, which will leave little to prop up the markets. If the S&P 500 is not able to stay firmly above the 1350 level, there is a strong likelihood that the S&P 500 will challenge the 1250 level.
 
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…..read much more