1. Jim Rogers: Gold Prices Will Be ‘Explosive,’ Just Wait and See

Is it time for the market to crash? Legendary investor Jim Rogers discusses his predictions for the biggest financial crisis we’ll see in our lifetimes, and how he’ll be protecting himself. “Gold is going to be explosive in the next few years,” Rogers said, as he gave his insight on gold, the U.S. dollar, and the crypto-craze.

…read more HERE

2. What’s Feeding The Weakness In The Dollar

   by Martin Armstrong 

US President Donald Trump may be a good businessman, but in politics, he just does not get it. Politics is all about ego and back-stabbing. It is not about logic and the art of the deal. After just ten days in the office, Trump’s communications chief, Anthony Scaramucci has been forced to resign. It has been this downturn in Trump’s administration that feeds the weakness of the dollar.

….continue HERE

3. Eric Coffin: A Positive Period To Buy is Just Beginning

By Michael Campbell

Featured guest is Eric Coffin notes that there is usually a couple of periods a year when precious metals are positive and we are just beginning the stronger of the two that will run into this fall. Eric also notes that the committments of Traders (COT) was as bullish two weeks ago as it was in late 2015 just prior to the $329 rise in Gold thru the first half of 2016. Eric explains why he recommends San Marco Resources Inc. (SMN.V) and Vendetta Mining Corp. (VTT.V) 

….read it all HERE

I implement these “seasonality” charts as they have been a great framework into all of my trading/investing technical analysis.  Seasonality charts are constructed from the past thirty years of historical data.

I implement them as “contrarian indicators”.  The “extreme bullishness” is perceived as bearish and the “extreme bearishness” is perceived as bullish! 

In the chart below, it displays the spread between the percentage of bulls and percentage of bears rather than just looking at bulls or bears in ‘isolation’.  Many deeper internals of the BIGGER PICTURE of the overall market sentiment become more relevant!

The sentiment consensus scenario seems to be ‘lulling’ everyone to become “extremely bullish” which is a FLASHING RED WARNING SIGNAL. 

The chart below displays only the total put/call ratio to provide the most comprehensive view of options sentiment. A high put/call ratio indicates “negative sentiment”. 

Latest Value(s):

• Last Reading: 0.33: JULY 28th, 2017

Extreme Values:

• Excessive Optimism: 0.2
• Excessive Pessimism: -0.2

The Rule:

If the 4-week average of the CBOE total put/call ratio is less than or equal to 0.90 (indicating optimism), you should be out of the market!

Current Reading: 1.08

Data Source: CBOE

Seasonal trends are extremely helpful in identifying typical supply/demand patterns or even new trend changes. These are self-reinforcement patterns that have emerged over time and can be taken advantage of over the years as they have proven to be highly reliable. I use ‘seasonality’ as a secondary concern for any analysis.  

“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.” -John Templeton

Is The Party Over?

It is not a coincidence that within the same window of time of the writing of this market report, Howard Marks, a quant strategist at JPMorgan, is issuing an alarm regarding the markets!

I quote him as saying “the upcoming mean-reversion will leave many in ruin, and that while there is still time to get out of the market, we may be very close to the turning point”.

Colin Cieszynski, the Chief Market Strategist at CMC MARKETS in CANADA, noted that Thursday’s (July 27th, 2017), “breakout to a new all-time high by the Nasdaq 100 and subsequent sell-off was a bearish key reversal day that may represent the peak of the recent bull market. Other bearish signs emerging include a negative RSI divergence and a failure at 6,000 a big round number”.

It seems that everyone is distracted by many topics including discussions of inflation, Fed fund rates and the lack of progress of the Trump administrations’ policies and yet no one is addressing the continuing rise of our already massive debt. The money to drive these markets higher has been borrowed. While this can continue for quite some time, it is not a solid fundamental factor of stability.

There is not a strong argument to be long stocks now, other than the fact that the trend remains up, and we have yet to see total euphoria in the market.

Sector rotation is strong and it is warning that skilled traders and insiders are moving their money around to only be in the hot spots and avoiding those of weak. This is what happens during late stages of a bull market. In fact, we say this last year and the markets were on the verge of rolling over until Trump became president and that rejuvenated the markets for one last bull market surge before the end.

While analysts like the two quoted above are yelling the sky is falling, It’s not the case just yet but the end is nearing and next year could be the year to be heavily invested in cash and digital currencies.

Currently the SPX continues to trade around our upside price target. There is little room left on the upside.  When confirmed, a correction of 150 points to 200 points is highly probable on the SPX! I will immediately send out an ALERT, followed by a new market analysis update. With new positions that need to be added, to my subscribers.

Based on rough mathematical projections, it will be approximately no greater than 10%, but a minimum of at least 5%. Traders and Investors will feel like the U.S. equity markets are crashing, but they aren’t. It’s just a much-needed CORRECTION!

My general rule is that a trend is in effect until it proves that it is NOT!

American consumers have reached an almost -record level of optimism over the past 8 months. It is not the most perfect timing mechanism. The only other times that optimism for rising stock prices occurred, over such a long-time, was when it reached those levels in June 1987, December 1997, June 1999, and January 2004, which were all followed my mutli-month corrections.

Conclusion:

In short, active traders should be defensive over the next few days as we could have one more bout of selling in stocks and a spike in the vix Thrusday/Friday as we forecasted in our last article. I feel the best plays right now are short metals, short oil, long dollar.

By Chris Vermeulen

One survey finds the lowest investor cash position since the stock market top in 2000. 

Specifically, the July 2017 reading of investor cash came in at 14.5%. This was the lowest level in the survey since January 2000. In fact, the only lower readings in the survey’s history back to 1987 occurred in January-April 1998, July 1999 and November 1999-January 2000.

… more analysis & view chart HERE

Marc Faber reveals his asset allocation strategy to tide over the risks posed by the US equity markets.

Marc Faber’s disenchantment with equity shares, especially US stocks, is well-known. However, it is not very often that the 80-year old veteran gives others an insight into his portfolio. Often referred to as Dr Doom, renowned investor Marc Faber — the author of Gloom, Boom & Doom report — said this week that he has allocated only a quarter of his portfolio to equities, and that too, mainly in Asia. The remaining three-fourths of Marc Faber’s money is mainly divided between real estate, precious metal and gold shares.

The reason is simple: Marc Faber is not a believer in the rally in the US stock markets, and seems to be openly opposed to the US President Donald Trump’s ideas!

…continue reading HERE

Technically speaking, this week could be very important for the major U.S. equity markets. There is an appearance of a “TOPPING PATTERN” forming. I am now awaiting confirmation by the actions of the equity markets, this week. Expect downward pressure beginning this month of August of 2017.

The Only Chart You Need To See!

There is currently limited upside potential in the SPX relative to potential downside for the months of August, September and the early part of October 2017. There are signs for the short, intermediate and longer-term trends returning for the best six months of trading officially inaugurated in November of 2017! This is the timing framework when ‘The Next Runaway Leg Up In The Stock Market Will Resume.’

In last weeks’ market action as the profit taking rotation out of the high-tech sector rotated into the Dow Industrials, it reflected a more defensive approach while being invested in “Blue Chips” during which time it achieved a new high.  Sector rotation increased especially noticeable in the transports and technology sectors that were leading the markets higher. If they continue lower, more sectors will join the decline. I am expecting a coming pop in the VIX on Aug 4, Aug 23, Sept 11 or 12 and finally Sept 28 or 29. 2017.  There was a flight to safety in the Yen as well as a strengthening of the price of Gold, Silver, Bitcoin and WTI Crude Oil.

An Unusual Anomaly:

Over the past couple of weeks, there was this unusual Anomaly which occurred, as you can see in the chart below.  It now makes me more cautious about our long understanding of “risk interconnectivity”.

How can the equity, gold, silver, crude oil and bitcoin markets ALL go HIGHER together?

In short, the major equities trend remains to the upside but it’s likely to take shape in a slow grinding process with downward pressure starting in August fora couple months.

By Chris Vermeulen