Timing & trends

GoldSeek.com Radio: Martin Armstrong and CEO Daniel Harrison

martin-home-page

Show Highlights

 

  • CEO Daniel Mark Harrison in Singapore kicks off the new segment, Tales from The Crypto-Spherewith an overview of his blockchain based hedge fund.
  • Monkey Capital is scheduled to go public in 8 days!
  • This highest rated ICO is a decentralized hedge fund that will invest in SpaceX contracts, digital assets and hostile takeovers.
  • His firm differentiates itself by offering a partnership with Token holders who get 100% of the venture return!
  • The ICO prospectus outlines cutting edge projects via the partnership with Loud Capital, at an enticing discount.
  • Projects include Nikola Labs, which converts radio waves into DC power, fulfilling the ambitions of Nikola Tesla and JP Morgan nearly 100 years hence. 
  • Elite Aerospace includes SpaceX contracts with a seed target of $70m via Loud Capital, projected to earn Token investors over 40% per year. 
  • Our guest outlines the nuanced financial structure of the ICO, another attribute that separates the firm from the crowded ICO domain. 
  • The company plans to invest in Blockchain Networks.
  • Value networks will completely restructure modern institutions throughout the spectrum. 
  • The secret of Daniel’s documented value networks rests on the axiom that each new addition to networks results in exponential increases in the overall value.
  • Part II of the discussion with global financier, Martin Armstrong ofArmstrong Economics, includes the script from his next Hollywood movie.
  • The duo delve into cryptocurrencies, the most significant breakthrough in finance in at least 20 years.
  • China’s PBoC announced plans to open a Blockchain Research Institute to promote a Yuan based blockchain
  • The scarcity / triple entry accounting / technological qualities / relative anonymity may surprise even the most ardent enthusiast.
  • Goldman Sachs’ Bitcoin target recently increased to $4,000.
  • Cryptocurrencies will soon revolutionize voting, insurance contracts, IoT, banking, healthcare, government contracts, even sovereign currencies. 
  • Still, martin Armstrong cautions investors on the extreme volatility in the crypto-space, noting that sheep could be fleeced by chasing sharp price advances. 

 

Guest Biographies

Daniel Mark Harrison 

Monkey Capital ICO

Daniel Mark Harrison is an entrepreneur and popular business and cultural media commentator. 

He is Chairman & Chief Executive Officer of Daniel Mark Harrison & Co. (DMH&CO), a Family Office with offices and active operations in Singapore, Bangkok and Hong Kong. He is also Managing Partner of fintech and blockchain venture capital firm Monkey Capital.

Mr. Harrison had been published in The Wall Street Journal, Forbes, TheStreet.com as well as online dailies such as The Daily Dot and Portfolio Magazine and is a frequent guest on business news channels including Bloomberg, Reuters, and CNN.

In noteworthy academic achievements, Mr. Harrison developed the concept of Factory Banking, a value configuration model based on Stabell and Fjelstad’s 1999 investigation into Michael Porter’s value chain model. Factory Banking is today the most widely-used value configuration model for businesses and transactions in the Internet of Things (IoT) economy. Most recently, he has begun work on a new market pricing model which challenges the validity of Free Market Economy pricing models dubbed the Bipolar Market Economy Equilibrium.

To participate in the highly rated Monkey Capital ICO: click here.

Martin Armstrong

The Forecaster 

Martin Armstrong was once a US based trillion dollar financial advisor, developed a computer model based on the number pi and other cyclical theories to predict economic turning points with eerie accuracy. In the early 80s he established his financial forecasting and advising company Princeton Economics. His forecasts were in great demand worldwide. As Armstrong’s recognition grew, prominent New York bankers invited him to join “the club” to aid them in market manipulation. Martin repeatedly refused. Later that same year (1999) the FBI stormed his offices confiscating his computer model and accusing him of a 3 billion dollar Ponzi scheme. Was it an attempt to silence him and to prevent him from initiating a public discourse on the real Ponzi Scheme of debts that the world has been building up for decades? Armstrong predicts that a sovereign debt crisis will start to unfold on a global level after October 1, 2015 – a major pi turning point that his computer model forecasted many years ago.

Starting at a very young age, Martin Armstrong displayed an entrepreneurial spirit and an analytical ability that were far too complicated for others. As a child he was already collecting coins, and before long he would be trading in gold. As an adult, he started the company Princeton Economics International. Based on a self-designed model, in which the mysterious number Pi plays an intrinsic role, he was able to calculate developments in the world economy. His predictions about stock crises or currency problems were eerily accurate, and he built up a clientele that consisted of powerful players in the global economy. 

Armstrong Economics.

The Forecaster Movie.

 

 

Three Fascinating Articles Of The Week

grizzly bear1. Prepare For Asset Price Declines Of 50-75%

What we have is a totally propped-up market based upon debt. Energy isn’t producing positive growth, really. So instead of having real economic growth, we have inflated economic growth and inflated asset values.

When growth starts to decline, I think we’re going to see the valuations of assets decline considerably. It’s anyone’s guess how quickly they can fall, but according to what I have been looking at, I think we are going to see a 50% decrease in real estate values right off the bat. I am not saying this will happen in a day, but the first wave will be a 30-50% decrease in real estate values when the markets really start to crack.

….read more HERE

2. US Dollar Bottom – Gold ICL Confirmed

It appears the US Dollar has bottomed following an intermediate degree correction. This suggests that the dollar will rally for 6-8 weeks while gold heads lower.

Gold has decisively broken down through its 200 dma. Traders are in a bull market mentality and will try to buy gold’s dips until sentiment becomes bearish. Expect gold to continue lower over the next 4- 8 weeks.

….continue HERE

3. Get Ready – An Earth Shattering Sea Change is Coming

By Michael Campbell & Jack Crooks

Star analyst, Jack Crooks warns that you better be on the look out for a massive change in the investment environment that will impact every one of us.

…read much more HERE

SWOT Analysis: Gold Has Outperformed the Stock Market Since 2000

Strengths

7-3fh

 

  • The best performing precious metal for the week was silver, with a fall of just 0.51 percent with platinum just behind that. Following wild price swings on heavy volume Monday and Tuesday in a suspected erroneous trade, gold traders and analysts remained bullish for a second week, reports Bloomberg. On Monday, 1.8 million ounces of the yellow metal were sold in a single minute and on Tuesday prices spiked in early European trading with about 815,000 ounces of gold bought in five minutes – a suspected reverse on the Monday fat finger trade.
  • The euro has climbed to a 13-month high on speculation that Mario Draghi’s ECB is poised to reduce unprecedented monetary stimulus, writes Bloomberg News. This has allowed Europeans to pay the least this year to buy gold, the article continues, while comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen this week did little to support the U.S. currency.
  • HKEK and the Chinese Gold & Silver Exchange Society signed MoU on Thursday to consider cooperation on matters such as product promotion and storage vaults, according to a statement on the Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing website. MoU signifies strategic partnership that aims to build a major gold and commodities trading center in Asia Pacific, said CGSE President Haywood Cheung in a statement, reports Bloomberg.

 

Weaknesses

 

  • The worst performing precious metal for the week was palladium, down 2.13 percent on money managers cutting their bullish bets on palladium futures to the least bullish level in three weeks.  Bullion for immediate delivery is down around 2 percent in June, reports Bloomberg, and on course to end the longest run of monthly gains since 2010. Central banks around the world have taken a more hawkish stance on monetary policy, curbing the appeal of assets that don’t pay interest.
  • On Monday, gold fell around $20 in a matter of seconds around 4am ET. While the yellow metal recovered a portion of those losses, it still traded down 1 percent. “No-one has a clue, apart from the unfortunate individual that pressed the wrong button,” David Govett, head of precious metals trading at Marex Spectron Group, said about the unusual plunge. Gold has gained 7.36 percent year-to-date, writes Bloomberg, but has struggled to break through its pre-election level of about $1,300.
  • China’s gold imports from Hong Kong fell for a second month in May, reports Bloomberg, as world prices wavered. Data from the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department show that the country purchased a net 44.8 metric tons, down from 74.9 tons in April.

 

Opportunities

 

  • According to Bloomberg, global central bankers are all hinting that the cost of money is heading higher. Euro-area economic confidence jumped to its highest level since August 2007 and German inflation unexpectedly rose in June. In a note from BCA this week, the group writes: “If the U.S. dollar turns and the downside pressure on their currencies abate, emerging market central banks will no longer have to sell their FX reserves. If the banks take advantage of currency stability/strength to ease policy, it would underpin a cyclical improvement in their economies. EM assets and commodity prices, along with commodity currencies, would benefit if this would transpire.”
  • There are two major developments that have emerged in the capital markets, writes Drew Mason of St. Joseph Partners. First, the dollar has broken its long-term major uptrend of more than a decade. Second, we’re seeing pressure on bonds, and long-term rates in particular are rising. And, despite these trends capping gold’s performance, gold (despite having no income stream attached to it as all the market pundits point out) has still outperformed the stock market since 2000 at a ratio of almost 2:1.
  • Despite opposition from nearly the entire Trump Cabinet, the President and a few top advisers are “hell bent” on imposing tariffs on steel imports of 20 percent, reports Seeking Alpha. Penalties could eventually be extended to other imports too. In related sector news, Societe Generale raised its 2017 aluminum and gold price outlook, while cutting copper. Morgan Stanley listed palladium, gold and silver as its top picks, while cutting nickel.

 

Threats

 

  • Tanzania’s parliament introduced three draft laws on Thursday, that would allow it to force mining and energy companies to renegotiate their contracts, reports CNBC. “They follow 18 months of wrangling between mining companies and President John Magufuli that have delighted Tanzanian voters but alarmed foreign investors,” the article continues. In a note from Luke Nelson at JP Morgan, the draft regulations contain a number of concerning provisions. For example, they suggest existing stability agreements could be renegotiated should the National Assembly find their terms to be “unconscionable.” Similarly, the drafts suggest future stabilization agreements shall be time bound and make provision for periodic renegotiation.
  • Gabriel Resources is seeking $4.4 billion from Romania for destroying the value of the long-stalled gold mine project, reports Bloomberg. Gabriel says the government has unlawfully blocked permits, disregarded existing license rights and ignored all requests for conciliation and negotiation. The company was once worth more than C$2.7 billion, but its value has collapsed to a fraction of that, the article continues.
  • Although historical patterns are all pointing to the fact that inflation should surge, these patterns may be in the process of breaking with history, reports Bloomberg. “Global labor markets have seen profound changes over the past decades, with significant implications for wage and price information,” the Bank for International Settlements said. “The question for many central banks is whether these developments have so weakened the relationship between inflation and labor-market slack that the recent tightening of labor markets poses little threat of an inflation overshoot.”  Famous last words, perhaps.

 

http://usfunds.com/

German bonds may offer the clearest warning that the stock market’s bull run is sputtering

Tom McClellan sees a warning that ‘the great bull market in stock prices from the 2009 low is in its last stages’

German bunds are trying to deliver a message to stock-market investors: Achtung!

According to market technician Tom McClellan, a narrowing yield spread between German 10-year bonds, known as bunds TMBMKDE-10Y, +5.09% and their U.S. counterpart TMUBMUSD10Y, +2.24%  has historically been a bad omen for equity markets. 

The yield differential between bunds, which were carrying a negative yield about a year ago and reached a record spread—2.38 percentage points—on Dec. 28 with U.S. 10-year paper, has been on a tightening trend lately, illustrated by one McClellan chart (see below):

MW-FP544 treasu 20170630220202 NS

….continue reading HERE

Here Comes Big Marijuana!

In last week’s Money and Markets article, I told you about how one of America’s biggest sin stock industries is positioning itself to profit from the expected legalization of marijuana at the federal level in the U.S.

In that article, I discussed how Big Tobacco executives have been exploring the opportunities of legal marijuana since the 1970s.

All this came to light after researchers combed through more than 80,000 top-secret documents, which had been turned over to the public following the 1998 national tobacco settlement.

Meeting behind closed doors, tobacco execs from companies, like Philip Morris, considered marketing gimmicks like combining weed with menthol cigarettes.

Yes, even in those early days, tobacco company bosses knew the potential gold mine that marijuana could be if it became legal across the U.S.

Indeed, here’s how the legal marijuana business in the U.S. has grown:

According to reputable market research, the legal marijuana industry in the U.S. was a $3.4 billion business in 2015. In 2016, the market doubled to $7.1 billion.

And two major studies show that the legal marijuana business in the U.S. will explode to $40 billion over the next five years … and possibly top $50 billion over the next decade.

Now, take a look at the chart below. There, you’ll see even more reasons why Big Tobacco is so interested in the marijuana business:


chart1s
Click image for larger view

That’s right, if the estimated yearly demand for marijuana is in the right ballpark, then more Americans crave cannabis than cabernet or candy bars.

This puts the potential market for recreational marijuana in the Big Three of America’s vices … trailing only cigarettes and beer.

And in this next chart, you’ll see why Big Tobacco is setting itself up to make a pile of gold in marijuana profits.



Click image for larger view

It’s because cigarette makers have been grappling with declining sales volumes for more than a decade.

And tobacco companies see themselves as perfectly positioned to profit if the Feds legalize marijuana for the entire U.S.

They have extensive financial resources, marketing muscle, political clout and the product-design technology to optimize the puff-by-puff delivery of THC (marijuana’s active ingredient).

You may not know this, but despite falling demand and stiff government oversight, tobacco has been one of the top-performing industry groups in the S&P 500 Index since the 1990s.

Yes, Big Tobacco boasts a well-documented track record of generating enormous profits under intense scrutiny. So it’s no surprise that the industry has its eyes on the whole marijuana pie, rather than just a piece.

Big Tobacco has its eyes on the whole marijuana pie.

Here’s what I mean …

Tobacco companies already have broad expertise in the distribution of their own controlled substance. That’s why they’re making a case to state regulators that they could apply this same expertise to the marijuana market — if only given the chance.

Indeed, they already have a wholesale network to distribute marijuana while safeguarding the system against bootleggers. Funneling marijuana sales through the same distribution network could help cut down on illegal sellers who obtain marijuana through illicit channels.

Here’s how their logic goes:

After federal legalization, state governments will need to regulate the marijuana industry in a way that’s similar to the tobacco business.

Distributors would act as middlemen between the producers and the customers. After all, they’ve already got the trucks, routes, employees, and established systems.

For state officials, their argument is sound:

Currently, tobacco wholesalers are accountable for the tracking, delivery, and taxing of all tobacco products. This means that for each carton of cigarettes distributed in each state, these wholesalers get a piece of the profits.

As the tobacco market fades and as marijuana becomes mainstream across the U.S., tobacco distributors want to apply the same tiered, top-down system.

That way, these same wholesalers will profit from distributing marijuana, which could breathe some new life into an industry that’s struggling for growth.

In many ways, the marijuana market of today resembles the tobacco market before it matured — before cigarettes were mass produced and sold through vast distribution networks.

With Big Tobacco eyeing the possible treasure trove in marijuana, you should consider investing a portion of your portfolio in weed too, if your risk profile permits it.

But with more than 200 marijuana stocks currently available on the publicly traded markets, you’ll need to roll up your sleeves and do your homework. Be highly selective — and here’s this week’s big tip — look for companies that have expertise in or that are focused on multi-state distribution.

Best wishes,

Bill Hall