The Trump rally’s animal spirits might be jumping the shark. The massive outperformance of the ‘riskiest’ high-volatility stocks over ‘stodgy’ low-volatility in the last few weeks…

….continue reading HERE

…related by Lance Roberts:

Technically Speaking: Bullish Or Bearish? What The Charts Say

Prices in financial and commodity markets are exhibiting seasonal trends. This applies to the precious metals gold, silver, platinum and palladium as well.

The chart below depicts the seasonal trends of the gold price over a time period of 45 years.

Gold price in USD, seasonal trend over 45 years

The price of gold typically rises from early August until the end of February
Source: Seasonax

Gold prices typically experience a seasonal rally in the second half of the year, with the advance beginning in early August and extending into late February of the following year. The positive seasonal trend in gold prices is highlighted in dark blue.

The gold price has increased until the end of February in 29 out of 45 cases

Gold prices have risen in 29 out of 45 cases during the seasonally strong period. In the 29 rally years, the average gain over this time period amounted to 17.85%, while the average loss in the 16 years exhibiting declines amounted to 8.17%. An especially large gain of 133,25% was recorded in 1979. The largest loss occurred in 1976, but amounted a much smaller 20.36%.

The bar chart below shows the gains and losses gold has posted during the seasonally strong time period in every year since 1971 (green bars represent gains, red bars losses):

Gold in USD, return in percentage points between August 7 and February 21 for every year since 1971

Gains (green bars) significantly exceed losses (red bars).
Source: Seasonax

Evidently, gains in gold prices are both more frequent and larger than losses during the seasonally strong period. However, between 1980 and the late 1990s, no large returns were generated during this time period, as gold was mired in a large-scale bear market.

Festivities are driving the gold price

The main reason for the positive seasonal gold price performance between early August to late February are various festivities, including Christmas, the Chinese new year celebrations and the Indian wedding season. Gold is frequently given as a gift on these occasions. Jewelry makers and merchants tend to stock up on gold prior to the festivities, and tend to push up gold prices in the process. Around two thirds of annual mine production are used by the jewelry trade.

Silver: shooting star at the beginning of the year

Silver’s industrial metal characteristics are far more pronounced than those of gold. The next chart illustrates the seasonal trend of the silver price.

Silver price in USD, seasonal trend over 45 years

Silver tends to exhibit a rapid seasonal rally at the beginning of the year 
Source: Seasonax

As you can see, the seasonal price trend of silver is completely different from that of gold. Silver typically rises rapidly at the beginning of the year. It has done so in 30 out of the past 46 years. Gains of up to 47.35% were posted – in a mere 26 trading days from the beginning of the year until February 19.

Industrial metals are subject to seasonal trends of their own

Interestingly, platinum and palladium prices are also recording strong seasonal gains at the beginning of the year – instead of from August onward like gold. In other words, industrial demand is the dominant driver of their seasonal price trends. Very likely many industrial users tend to place their buy orders early in the new financial year.

While such calendar-driven business practices appear detrimental if one wants to obtain the best possible prices, annual planning and ordering procedures are often aligned with the financial year. Purchasers of precious metals may not be aware of the seasonal price trends, may be ignoring them because their in-house procedures are taking precedence.

Take advantage of the seasonal trends in precious metals!

As an investor or trader you can take advantage of the seasonal trends in precious metals in order to improve the timing of your purchases and sales and to manage the appropriate level of investment. Over time, this should result in obtaining more favorable prices. Keep in mind that seasonal price trends are averages and deviations are possible in some years. Nevertheless, seasonal trends can benefit you by making probability work in your favor.

During my morning reading, I ran across an interesting article from Paul Lim via Time giving several reasons why the stock market will “rise for a ninth straight year.”

“For ordinary Americans, 2017 is likely to feel like the best year economically since the Great Recession.

The recovery is finally expected to trickle down to you in the form of an improved job market, higher wages, and growing spending power.

And, despite the advanced age of this bull, your improving fortunes just may keep U.S. stocks chugging along too, as consumers represent 70% of the U.S. economy.“

While his points are valid, but very debatable, it is critical to remember the stock market and the economy are two different things. GDP growth and stock returns are not highly correlated. In fact, some analysis suggests that they are negatively correlated and perhaps fairly strongly so (-0.40).

However, it isn’t just Paul pushing the bullish commentary, but virtually the entirety of the media press. The siren’s song of “stay long my friends” has risen as of late as the market has soared following the election. But here is the interesting takeaway:

The reasoning for the continuance of the “bull rally” over the last several years has been footed by the common threads of:

…..read more HERE

Many are now blaming Colin Kaepernick for the sharp decline in American football ratings. Kaepernick began kneeling during the national anthem in the NFL preseason as a protest of the injustices against people of color because of Trump as if he has done something. Kaepernick has continued to protest in every game this season. Now, more than 40 football players have joined Kaepernick. Some are just taking a knee, and others are sitting on the bench. But the real disturbing display is that many now stand with a raised fist, including such stars like Denver Broncos linebacker Brandon Marshall, Miami Dolphins running back Arian Foster, and New England Patriots tight end Martellus Bennett. Other athletes also joined the protests outside of games. Given what they make in salary, they do not have a lot to complain about. Instead of buying $300,000 cars and houses for millions. Nevertheless, this is feeding into the civil unrest cycle that will turn bloody in the year ahead.

Super Bowl viewership peaked in 2015 and has begun to decline from a major 26-year high. There was a surge that began with the 2007 crisis. As the economy turned down, the viewership soared from 93 million to a major high that almost reached 115 million in 2015. This year fell to 111 million, which is actually the Bearish Reversal. So if 2017 comes in under 111, this will confirm sports have begun a bear market.

The players who think they have the right to turn their sport into political protests fail to understand that people watch such things to escape. Trying to use their status to remind them of what they are trying to ignore has already set the decline in motion — right on time. It looks like sports are a great short. This was made visible by the bankruptcy of Sports Authority who closed their last store on May 18, 2016. Clearly, 2015.75 was a major turning point that is not confined to the just the peak in government. As people turn their backs on sports, it reflects that they are getting angrier at the economic situation of government. Kaepernick may be remembered as the man who killed football.

After Opec cut, non-Opec producers has met in Vienna and cut as well. Victor on how high before a turnaround. More on Gold, Canadian Dollar, Interest rates, currencies and basic commodities.

….Michael’s Editorial: Public vs Private Sector Compensation: It Is Just Not Fair