The choice for president has never been so bad. The latest polls show 63% of voters said Clinton is overly secretive, 55% said she was corrupt, and 52% said she was “extremely liberal.” This is very interesting since the only presidents since 1900 to be elected with greater than 60% of the popular vote were Lyndon Johnson in 1964  after the Kennedy Assassination,  61.05%,  Franklin Roosevelt in 1936 with 60.80%, Richard Nixon in 1972 with 60.67%, and Warren Harding in 1920 with 60.32%. Therefore, Hillary beats everyone with the highest rating of distrust.

The polls are being rigged as they were in Britain for BREXIT. But plan B is clearly being put into play already preparing the public for the accusation that should Trump win, the election will be called a fraud because of Russian hackers. The Washington Post, a big Democratic Party mouth piece, ran the story that Russian hackers target the Arizona primary. CNBC is carrying the story that Russia will hack the elections. Obama has outright accused Russia of targeting the Democratic National Party (DNC) claiming two Russian hackers were discovered. This is the story being carried even by the BBC, yet the specialist called in was Shawn Henry, the chief security officer at company called in Crowdstrike, who is himself a former executive assistant director of the FBI.  It was even bantered about in the second debate between Hillary and Trump. The New York Times is jumping in also carrying the story. Reuters is now reporting that there is no question that Russia was behind the hacker at the DNC.

Democrats are now warning foreign governments and hackers that cyber attacks against the U.S. will be treated like any other, even if it leads to war. DNS hijacking or DNS redirection is a common practice. This amounts to subverting the resolution of Domain Name System (DNS) queries. This can be achieved by malware that overrides a computer’s TCP/IP configuration to point at a rogue DNS server under the control of an attacker. It can even modify the behavior of a trusted DNS server so that it does not comply with internet standards. However, the hardest problem in finding the source of these attacks is really attribution. Each data packet sent over the Internet contains information about its source and its destination. Yet the source field can be changed [spoofed] by an attacker to make it appear as if  it is coming from someplace it’s not. This is standard operational procedure. Consequently, I serious doubt that a professional hacker would have left a trace.

I cannot stress strong enough that there is no way they will allow Trump to enter the White House. It appears that should he win, like BREXIT against the odds and the polls, Obama will not leave and the election will be declared a fraud. Obama will most likely step down and hand it to Joe Biden. Out models are showing November as a rather important turning point and this seems unusual insofar as that it would be limited to merely an election. Something else may be in the wind.

….related from Martin: The Urgency of The Issues

Victor is having a happy Thanksgiving – thanks to his continued understanding of what the big picture money makers are doing in the market.

….don’t miss Mark Leibovit – Gold Off $100 … is it a Buy or Sell?

Quotable

“All the gold which is under or upon the earth is not enough to give in exchange for virtue.” –Plato

Commentary & Analysis

Gold Crushed – Bonds Crushed: Our subscribers are happy

It would appear the powers-that-be have just stumbled on to the ugly fact that all the bailed-in depositor money in the world won’t stop the novated, rehypothecated, collateral chain collapse contagion that Deutsche Bank’s $40 trillion-plus derivatives book’s Damocles sword hangs over the status quo. However, being the problem-solving types, the European technocrats have a ‘fair-share’ solution – back a derivative clearing-house with taxpayer money to solve the new too-biggest-to-fail problem “that no one saw coming.”

While the “rules” right nbow are that everyone from shareholders, bondholders, and depositors alike on up the capital structure are supposedly “bailed-in” to save an ailing bank, this problem is just way too big.

Here’s the problem… in 3 charts…

Derivatives book – yuuge…

….continue reading HERE

The question confronting investors right now is whether the lateral trading range in the major indices represents consolidation of the long-term uptrend, which precedes an eventual upside breakout from the range?  Or does it represent distribution (i.e. selling) which precedes an eventual breakdown of the trend?  

Bulls and bears have assembled evidence to support their respective take on this conundrum, but the most basic and useful evidence suggests the first outcome, namely an eventual upside resolution.  Let’s examine the evidence in support of this conclusion.  

While the bears have correctly observed that in the previous instances when the major indices have bumped up against trading range resistance – or temporarily exceeded it – the market has always had a sharp decline.  It’s also true that during the sideways range-bound market of 2015 there was definite evidence that distribution was taking place among informed investors.   This preceded the July-August collapse last year and the secondary collapse in January-February of this year.  

All through the spring and summer of 2015 the list of stocks making new 52-week lows on the NYSE was growing.  It remained elevated well above 40 – the dividing line between a healthy and unhealthy market – for much of the year.  Anytime there is a stretch of several consecutive days where new lows are above 40 while new lows are shrinking it strongly implies internal selling pressure beneath the surface of the broad market.  This was one indication that distribution was taking place last year while the Dow and S&P were churning in a sideways trend.  Finally, after several months of this internal selling pressure the market broke under the weight of it, as can be seen in the following graph.

After bottoming in February the stock market has only seen a total of nine days where the new 52-week lows numbered 40 or above.  That’s an impressive stretch of internal health and it shows that there has been little or no selling urgency or distribution since then.  The dearth of new lows argues strongly, therefore, in favor of the longer-term bullish trend remaining intact heading into 2017.   

On a short-term basis, however, there has been a definite loss of momentum.  As we’ve reviewed in recent reports the NYSE short-term directional components of our Hi-Lo Momentum (HILMO) index keep deteriorating.  Here’s what the three components look like as of this writing on Wednesday.  The blue line is the short-term directional indicator, the red line is the momentum bias, and the green line is the internal trend.

The downward-slanted trend in the above graph is indicative of a loss of forward momentum on a near-term basis and explains why the major indices have been unable to rally in sustained fashion since peaking in August.  As long as the short-term momentum indicators are declining it will also mean the market is vulnerable to negative news and may at some point experience another pullback.  

Acting as a counterbalance against this short-term downward pressure is the longer-term internal momentum indicator, shown below.  Currently this is the only one of the eight major HILMO components that is rising on a sustained basis.  My interpretation of this graph is that as long as this indicator continues its nearly vertical climb it should act as a deterrent to a serious bear raid.  That has certainly been the case since July-August when the internal cross-currents first became evident.  It’s also why any attempt at short selling among the bears has ultimately backfired due to the strongly rising longer-term momentum current reflected in this indicator.  

So while the loss of short-term internal momentum may negatively impact the near-term trend, it shouldn’t prove fatal to the major uptrend that began in March-April 2009.  

Mastering Moving Averages

The moving average is one of the most versatile of all trading tools and should be a part of every investor’s arsenal.  The moving average is one of the most versatile of all trading tools and should be a part of every investor’s arsenal.  Far more than a simple trend line, it’s a dynamic momentum indicator as well as a means of identifying support and resistance across variable time frames.  It can also be used in place of an overbought/oversold oscillator when used in relationship to the price of the stock or ETF you’re trading in.  

Clif Droke is a recognized authority on moving averages and internal momentum. For more information visit www.clifdroke.com 

….related:

For short term trading Todd Market Forecast