Timing & trends

The Legend Jim Dines

Since his last appearance on Moneytalks his gold and silver stocks have doubled, tripled and one went up over 400% – Mike gets the latest from one of Wall Streets legends.

 

Don’t miss Michaels Editorial: Hillary or Donald? Who Cares?

We’re missign the point. His lies, her lies – It won’t matter which of the most unpopular, divisive candidates in history wins the election – it will further erode confidence in government  making the next four years the most chaotic in generations.

dines

 

The 3 Most Popular Articles Of The Week

govfail1. Complexity Failure Crisis & Panic

    by Michael Campbell

Intensive Government management of our economy cannot solve the problems we have. There are too many variables involved. Massive debt problems, commodity prices, currency values, the actions of Governments at all three levels, International Government actions. They’ve all led to untenable derivative positions and banking system problems could trigger a significant liquidation panic at any time.

….read more HERE

2. David Morgan Urges Investors to Obtain REAL Money outside the Banking System Immediately

David Morgan tells us how long he thinks the correction in the metals will last, why he believes this November’s election is less important than you might think and also talks about a key event coming up that could put a lot of pressure on the U.S. dollar

…..continue reading HERE

3. WHY 2017 is The Threshold to Chaos

   by Martin Armstrong 

I have been warning that 2017 was the Year of Political Hell with four major referendums/elections that would undermine the confidence in government – BREXIT, US Presidential Elections, French Elections, and Germany Elections. These four events hold the potential to overturn the expectations of the future.

….more HERE

Investing in Irrational Markets

craigburrowsSo let me get this straight… last week the US reports weaker employment and economic data and the markets are up triple digits? Markets seem to be happy with the belief that interest rates will not go up in September. For volatility, what’s worse; weak economic data or continued record low interest rates?

What’s really scary is the US anemic economy is better than Europe with the Brexit contagion possibly going through Europe in next year elections. We haven’t even begun to speak about the US elections in November.

More than ever the average investor needs to find ways to reduce risk from this volatile market. It’s little wonder on our website at www.triviewcapital.com, we love John Maynard Keynes quote of “the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”.

Over the last 4 years, we have continued to be frustrated with the public markets, and more than ever believe alternative investment strategies are needed to balance the public markets irrational roller coaster cycle. When the market corrects, we believe it won’t be 100 points, it’ll probably drop 400+ points when it does. The challenge is what comes first, the big drop or increased interest rates by the US Fed? If the drop happens before the US Fed announces rate increases in the fall, it could mean a second big drop over the next 4 months.

We’re proud to launch a new program with Money Talk listeners and readers; it’s called “8 ways to 8%”. Between now and up to the World Outlook Conference 2017, we will highlight 8 different strategies to provide alternative investment strategies that target 8% or better annual yields on real cash flow businesses in multiple sectors. Of course we look forward to introducing you to these investment opportunities at the event but for those who listen to the show or subscribe on line, you’ll be able to take advantage of these strategies prior to the February event.

We plan to provide alternative strategies over coming months just in case you believe “the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”.

Craig S Burrows ICD.D

President & CEO, CCO TriView Capital Ltd.

cburrows@triviewcapital.com

www.triviewcapital.com

Where Has All the Volatility Gone?

Do me a favor and punch up a chart of General Electric (GE). Or 3M (MMM). Or DuPont (DD). Or United Parcel Service (UPS). Or basically any major blue chip, widely held, large capitalization stock.

What do you see over the past few weeks? Nothing. Very little net movement. Extremely tight ranges. Some of the smallest daily candles and bars you will EVER see on a stock chart.

It’s not just your imagination, either. The markets are truly somnolent, even now with the traditional pre-Labor Day quiet period over. 

Screen Shot 2016-09-09 at 5.39.59 AMI read one fascinating article earlier this week that concluded the Dow Jones Industrial Average hasn’t traded in this narrow of a high-to-low, 40-day range in the last 100 years. Another analyst found the S&P 500 hasn’t been this tightly coiled since 1928. 

What the heck is going on? And what does all this low volatility mean for you as an investor?

Well, some of the blame lies with “volatility selling” in the options market, as I wrote about last month. It’s another way of squeezing a few nickels of income out of the markets in a NIRP/ZIRP world, and everyone is doing it these days.

Some of it also stems from investors anticipating potential market-moving events. The Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan are meeting on policy later this month, and investors are hesitant to make big moves ahead of those events.

Finally, some of it stems from confusion about where the economy is headed. We had a lousy start to the year, followed by a bounce back in June and July.

Now the question is whether that economic bounce is petering out.

The August jobs figures and other reports on the manufacturing and services sector suggest that is the case. So does the Citi Economic Surprise Index. 

The gauge purports to show whether the majority of economic reports are beating or missing economist forecasts. Many bulls crowed about how it “broke out” back in July. But take a look at this chart. The entire breakout has petered out …

chart1s

I have my suspicions about where things will likely break from here. 

The widening disconnect between economic reality and stock prices isn’t very encouraging, and is likely to be resolved by a downside break. Conservative “safety plays” should outperform risky, economically sensitive names. In a pre-recessionary environment, the dollar is also likely to lose, while gold and Treasuries should be winners. 

But it makes sense not to get too aggressive until the market actually tips its hand. In your personal investing, I would play things smaller in terms of capital committed until we get a breakout in these various asset classes.

Until next time,

Mike Larson

Mike Larson

Try Mike’s shorter-term trading service, All Weather Trader, or his longer-term newsletter Safe Money Report,

 

Underfunded Pension Funds May Drive Bull Market Another 3 Years

The three major themes or drivers of this current bull market and why the current run isn’t likely to end for still another 3 years or more. Remarkably the nations public pension funds have grown to the point they dwarf the Federal Reserve. In order to prevent shortfalls, federal, state and municipalities have raise taxes, and that money has to go somewhere. 

Brian Reynolds is the Chief Market Strategist for New Albion Partners. Brian specializes in relating developments in the credit and related markets to the equity market.

 

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