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Be skeptical of fads, fashions and trends and operate within your circle of competence

Warren Buffett could teach traders in dogecoin, GameStop and other hot trends a few things about ‘Mr. Market’

As the old joke goes, St. Peter had some bad news for an oil prospector who appeared at the pearly gates of heaven: “You’re qualified for admission,” said St. Peter, “but, as you can see, the section for oil prospectors is packed. There’s no way to fit you in.”

After a moment, the prospector asked to say just four words to the present occupants. That seemed harmless to St. Peter, so the prospector yelled, “Oil discovered in hell!”  Immediately, most of the oil prospectors stampeded out for the nether regions. Impressed, St. Peter invited the prospector to move in and get comfortable. The prospector paused, saying “No, I think I’ll go along with the rest of them.  There might be some truth to that rumor after all.”

Let that be a warning to CEOs and shareholders. Steering clear of rumors and self-delusion has been one of Warren Buffett’s key rules, ingrained into Berkshire Hathaway BRK.A, -0.43% BRK.B, -0.41% shareholders for years. We all need to hear such lessons repeatedly because reality’s temptations are always at war with our ideals.

The serial frenzies in meme stocks like GameStop  GME, -2.19% and cryptocurrencies like dogecoin DOGEUSD, -8.17% make this a good time to contrast what investors should do from what many seem to do. Comparing Berkshire’s and crypto’s faithful is apt given their outsized followings: an estimated 30 million Americans have traded cryptocurrencies and 30 million are expected to stream this year’s Berkshire virtual annual meeting on May 1.

Buffett defines Berkshire as a corporation with a partnership attitude. The value of each investor’s stake will rise (or fall) in lock step. This contrasts with how many seem to view companies with meme stocks or most of the crypto space. There, the culture is casino-like, where a small few stand to reap unimaginable riches while the overwhelming majority lose their shirts.

Moreover, Berkshire’s culture emphasizes patience and permanence. The company ideally holds investments and businesses forever and encourages its shareholders to hold indefinitely, through thick and thin. In the world of meme stocks and cryptocurrency trading, a strong norm favors immediate payday profits to be taken off the board.

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The Price Of Plywood Is Absolutely Ridiculous – But It Is Also A Sign Of The Times…

 

Would you pay $100 for a sheet of plywood?  I know that sounds absolutely crazy, but we are almost there.  The price of plywood has been soaring into the stratosphere in recent weeks, and analysts are telling us that it will remain high for the foreseeable future.  Memes about plywood have started to pop up all over social media, but this is no joking matter.  These extraordinarily high prices are causing a lot of pain in the homebuilding industry, and many Americans have had to postpone construction plans indefinitely.  Unfortunately, our national leaders continue to flood the system with even more new money, and that is going to cause even more extreme inflation in the months and years to come.

Prior to the pandemic, any discussions about plywood on social media were likely to be painfully boring, but now everything has changed.  Thanks to skyrocketing prices, plywood has suddenly become a very hot topic, and one post on Facebook that circulated quite widely ended up getting national attention

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The next high-tech makeover: Gardening tools

An automatic lawn mower, a smart irrigation system, and an AI-powered bird feeder.

With nowhere to go during quarantine, many Americans put extra effort into literally tending their own backyard.

As reported by The Wall Street Journal, 27% of homeowners overhauled their grassy wares in 2020, and 19% plan on doing a garden project in 2021.

Here’s a WSJ roundup of new-age gardening tech (which we had no idea existed) to help aspiring green thumbs:  READ MORE

 

European soccer group proposes radical breakaway league

 

The world’s richest clubs like Real Madrid, Manchester United and Juventus want to make a closed-shop league that they themselves govern.

World football has been rocked by 12 of Europe’s richest football clubs announcing the launch of a controversial NFL-style “Super League,” governed by the very clubs that founded it.

The plans have drawn widespread condemnation from supporters groups, high profile football personalities, and politicians. Clubs and players involved in the so-called European Super League face possible sanctions.

The founders are Arsenal FC, Chelsea FC, Liverpool FC, Manchester City, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur from England, AC Milan, FC Internazionale Milano and Juventus FC from Italy, and Spain’s Atlético de Madrid, FC Barcelona and Real Madrid CF. The league has not been joined by any French or German clubs.

Europe’s main footballing bodies condemned the announcement. A joint statement by UEFA, the English Football Association, the Premier League, the Royal Spanish Football Federation (RFEF), LaLiga, the Italian Football Federation (FIGC) and Lega Serie A said that they “will remain united in our efforts to stop this cynical project, a project that is founded on the self-interest of a few clubs at a time when society needs solidarity more than ever.”

“We will consider all measures available to us, at all levels, both judicial and sporting in order to prevent this happening. Football is based on open competitions and sporting merit; it cannot be any other way.”

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Beyond Meat vs. Impossible Foods

 

Don’t let the adjective in “fake meat” fool you — the money involved is very, very real.

The global market for plant-based meat alternatives is projected to reach $450B by 2040, as reported by Bloomberg.

Today, the leader in the market is Beyond Meat…

… which can be found in more places than its leading competitor, Impossible Foods:

  • US restaurants: Beyond (42k) vs. Impossible (30k+)
  • International markets: Beyond (80+) vs. Impossible (5)
  • Share of frozen/refrigerated retail meat substitutes: Beyond (22%) vs. Impossible (9%)

Meanwhile, Beyond Meat is publicly traded with a market cap of ~$9B while Impossible Foods notched a valuation of $4B in its latest fundraising round (though that number could skyrocket on a prospective IPO).

The pandemic has improved Impossible’s position

While Beyond has high-profile partnerships (e.g., McDonald’s), it relies heavily on the small restaurant chains and independent businesses that make up a majority of its customers, who were hit hard by the pandemic.

Conversely, Impossible relies on major chains like Starbucks and Burger King that have been somewhat “pandemic-resilient.”

Impossible has also made significant headway in supermarkets, growing its presence from 150 to 20k+ locations in the past year.

Aggressively going after market share

Impossible is wooing grocers and restaurants by cutting the price of its patties and other substitutes. In fact, the prices are near cost competitive to real beef itself, and Beyond has responded with its own promotions.

The fake meat awareness raised by Beyond and Impossible is bringing serious competition:

  • Huge grocery chains: Kroger, Wegmans, and Albertsons all have white label faux meat products
  • Meat producers: Smithfield and JBS have their own fake meat lines

As it stands, fake meat only makes up 2.7% of total packaged meat sales. For Beyond Meat, the competition for fake meat will only get more real.