Voting has literally stunned the world and rocked global markets in the aftermath of the Brexit vote to “Leave” the EU.

Sterling hits 31-year low on Brexit, central banks hint at intervention

Sterling sank 10 percent in value to its weakest since before the 1985 Plaza Accord on Friday after Britain voted to leave the European Union, triggering a global rush of capital into the traditional security of the yen and the Swiss franc.

Alongside the biggest moves in the pound in living memory the euro, which is expected to struggle given worries about the impact of a “Brexit” on the euro zone economy, also dropped sharply against the dollar. 

The franc surged to its strongest in almost a year against the euro, and the yen to its highest in more than two years. The Swiss National Bank became the first major central bank to step in to drive down the value of the franc, while speculation that the Bank of Japan could also act limited the yen’s advance.

Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had instructed him to cooperate with the Bank of Japan and closely consult with Group of Seven partners in responding to market moves. Aso added that excess volatility in currency markets was undesirable and he would respond to market moves when necessary.

A German finance ministry spokesman said finance ministers and central bank chiefs from the G7 economic powers held a teleconference on Friday as Britain’s decision to leave the EU created ripples in the currency market and beyond.

The pound fell more than 10 percent to $1.3228 GBP=D4, its lowest since before the world’s major economies signed a deal to weaken the dollar in September 1985. 

….read more HERE

related:

El-Erian – Seven Lessons From the U.K.’s Departure

For those of you who are just waking up, first of all, congratulations. Here is what you missed. 

European, Asian stocks and S&P futures plummet, as U.K. votes to leave European Union membership. FX carry trades everywhere go haywire, with the Dollar and Yen spiking while the Cable overnight plunged to 30 year lows and at last check was trading just around 1.37, down 1,300 pips from yesterday’s highs. A modest rebound was experienced when first the Bank of England and shortly after all other central banks promised to pump virtually unlimited liquidity into the financial system. Ironically, all of this takes place a day after Fed’s stress tests showing all 33 banks exceed minimum requirements  – we may find out just how “unstressed” they are as soon as today. 

For those who are pressed for time, the following quote from James Butterfill, head of research and investments at ETF Securities, summarized it best: “It’s scary, and I’ve never seen anything like it. We’re going to see outflows from basically any kind of cyclical asset. A lot of people were caught out, and many investors will lose a lot of money.”

Here are key market updates:

….read more HERE

related:

El-Erian – Seven Lessons From the U.K.’s Departure

I felt squeamish in noting the Semi Equipment strength and its economic implications to you back in January of 2013 and in hindsight, these are the financial markets and there is no place for squeamish.

Booking, Billings and Book-to-Bill for May are a knock out. What’s more, we now have a 3 month trend in Semiconductor equipment bookings. With the strong billings as well, we probably have the makings of a good reporting season for Q2 (April-June) unless the world ends this month.

….for larger charts continue reading HERE

related: Early Warning On Trend Change

Tomorrow, one of the most important financial decisions of the past 20 years will be put to a referendum in Britain. Should Britain remain a part of the European Union, or should it leave?

I won’t venture to guess on the results. It would be a toss of the coin. Or, it would be a rigged referendum, thrown into disarray by the assassination of liberal British lawmaker, Jo Cox, last week.

But I do know this: If British citizens are smart enough … if they care enough about their country’s rich heritage and sovereignty … they should vote to leave the EU as fast as possible.

You see, in addition to all the problems with the euro that the European Union has — it has other problems with member countries like Britain, which joined but did not accept the euro as its currency.

Thanks to Margaret Thatcher, who, with her wisdom beyond the ages, knew that the European Union was really a political union in disguise, an attempt to unite Europe under the guise of no more wars, even trade wars. Of uniform labor laws and central bank policies. Of uniform interest rates, free flow of labor and single currency.

But Thatcher saw through it all and saw it plainly for what it was: A power grab by the elite to have a majority of European countries give up their sovereignty, mainly to the strongest economy in the region, Germany …

And from there, work toward an authoritarian society where the elite of Germany, France and Brussels called all the shots.

Thatcher was 100% right. So she — unwillingly — allowed England to join the EU, but only on the condition that Britain be allowed to own its currency, the pound. A country’s currency is its pride of sovereignty — almost synonymous with its national flag — and no way was Thatcher going to give that up.

So what happened next? Something Thatcher didn’t foresee. As punishment for not taking on the euro, the European Union began to issue one burdensome regulation after another, attempting to stifle the economic growth of those countries that joined the union, but not the currency.

And in the years since, each and every one of those countries — the U.K., Denmark and Sweden — has largely seen its economic performance lag well behind not just the West or the Far East, but also behind the euro countries. 

We’ll find out soon enough — tomorrow. As I said at the outset, it would be far better for the U.K. to leave, to escape the burdensome regulations of the EU, and to take back its sovereignty.

The same, by the way, can be said of every country in the EU. It is a failed experiment that was doomed from the get-go, and the longer Brussels tries to hold it together, the greater the backfire will become. And in the end, instead of uniting Europe, it will tear apart.

What about the immediate consequences of tomorrow’s decision? Here, too, one can only guess wildly; it’s such an important decision.

But I have an edge with my AI models, that give me a fairly reliable sneak peek at the future market movements. And from those sneak peeks, I can tell you what I think will happen. 

First, Britain will vote to stay in the European Union. But don’t be surprised if you hear accusations of rigged voting as early as tomorrow. 

Second, assuming Britain does vote to stay in, you should see another rip-roaring move to the upside in European and U.S. equities, just like we saw on Monday. Why? It would merely be a relief rally, euphoria over having everything staying the same rather than confronting change, which no one likes. 

Third, expect the British pound to fall sharply against the euro, debasing the pound to give Britain a currency competitive trade edge going forward.

Fourth, expect commodities, mainly gold and silver, to plunge. There has been an enormous amount of gold and silver buying over the past two months or so as hedges against a calamity in the EU and Britain leaving. But if Britain doesn’t leave, those gold and silver hedges will get dumped before you can bat an eyelash. Same for mining stocks. 

Fifth, the U.S. dollar will soar. Caught in a months-long sideways trading range, no-Brexit will send the dollar soaring, smashing other dollar-sensitive commodities along the way, everything from oil to soybeans.

It’s going to be a wild trading day today … vote day tomorrow … and even Friday. Not only is the decision a huge one, but most major brokerage firms are upping margin requirements as much as three-times over to cover the anticipated volatility.

Best wishes, as always …

Larry 

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