Timing & trends

Todd Market Forecast for Monday February 29, 2016

Available Mon- Friday after 6:00 P.M. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific.  
                 
DOW                                                   – 123 on 250 net advances
 
NASDAQ COMP                                     – 33 on 150 net declines
 
SHORT TERM TREND                            Bullish  
 
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND                Bearish
 
  STOCKS: The action on Monday was a bit disappointing, but it was most probably a function of being the last day of the month. Mid session, a rumor came out that there was a big sell program at the close. This probably discouraged buyers. 
      Tuesday is the first day of March and the first day of the month has a strong tendency to be higher. 
      Also, breadth has been strong which adds to the bullish case. Check out the chart comments below.
        
   GOLD:  Gold rallied $19. Weak economic data was the reason given this time. This means lower rates.   
 
 CHART: The S&P 500 has been down two days in a row, but the advance decline line was positive both days. This should be a positive on Tuesday. Moreover, the S&P was negative by 8 points for the month, but the advance decline line added almost 2,000 net advances. No guarantees, but internal strength is usually a positive. We think Tuesday will be higher, but we have a trading escape hatch if we’re wrong.  
 
27be33a2-a3be-4f42-ae5b-51544af68f5d
BOTTOM LINE:  (Trading)
Our intermediate term system is on a sell as of February 9.
   System 7  We are long the SSO from 56.94. Let’s take some defensive action. If there are more declining issues than advancing ones at 3:45 EST on Tuesday, sell at the close. We don’t think we’ll have to.                
   System 8   We are in cash. Stay there.
GOLD  We are in cash. Stay there.     
 
News and fundamentals: The Chicago PMI came in at 47.6, less than the expected 52.9. Pending home sales were down 2.5%, worse than the consensus gain of 0.5%. The Dallas Fed Mfg Survey was minus 31.8, less than the  expected minus 30. On Tuesday we get the PMI Mfg Index and the ISM Mfg Index. Also construction spending.
 
Interesting Stuff  Failure is the opportunity to begin again more intelligently. —–Unknown
 
TORONTO EXCHAN GE:   Toronto rose 63.
S&P/TSX VENTURE COMP: The TSX was up 4 .           
BONDS:  Bonds were slightly higher.                                                                                                                                              
THE REST:  The dollar was also slightly higher. Silver was up sharply. Crude oil rose over 3%.                                                                                                   
 
Bonds –Bearish from Feb. 12.                           
 
U.S. dollar – Bullish as of Feb. 16.                              
 
Euro — Bearish as of Feb. 19.  
 
Gold —-Bearish as of February 22.                                
 
Silver—- Bearish as of February 22.                            
 
Crude oil —- Bearish from January 5.                               
 
Toronto Stock Exchange—- Bullish from January 22.    
 
S&P\ TSX Venture Fund — Bullish from January 29.       
 
We are on a long term buy signal for the markets of the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany and France.  
Mon. Tue. Wed. Thu. Fri. Mon. Evaluation
Monetary conditions 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 day RSI S&P 500 76 57 62 71 67 54 0
5 day RSI NASDAQ 73 56 63 68 70 59  0
McCl-
lAN OSC.
+226 +148 +168 +210 +214 +199
 
Composite Gauge 4 16 9 5 10 12 0
Comp. Gauge, 5 day m.a. 7.0 9.4 10.2 8.8 8.8 10.4 0
CBOE Put Call Ratio .95 1.12 1.04 .92 .99 1.20
+
 
VIX 19.38 20.28 20.72 19.11 19.81 20.55 0
VIX % change -6 +8 -1 -8 +4 +4 0
VIX % change 5 day m.a. -4.4 -1.8 -0.6 -1.6 -0.6 +1.4 0
Adv – Dec 3 day m.a. +502 +143 +380 +239 +822 +715  –
Supply Demand 5 day m.a. .79 .61 .62 .78 .62 .43 +
Trading Index (TRIN) .37 1.96 1.06 .84 .96 1.41
 +
 
S&P 500
 
1946 1921 1930 1952 1948 1932 Plurality +1
 INDICATOR PARAMETERS
     Monetary conditions (+2 means the Fed is actively dropping rates; +1 means a bias toward easing. 0 means neutral, -1 means a bias toward tightening, -2 means actively raising rates). RSI (30 or below is oversold, 80 or above is overbought). McClellan Oscillator ( minus 100 is oversold. Plus 100 is overbought). Composite Gauge (5 or below is negative, 13 or above is positive). Composite Gauge five day m.a. (8.0 or below is overbought. 13.0 or above is oversold). CBOE Put Call Ratio ( .80 or below is a negative. 1.00 or above is a positive). Volatility Index, VIX (low teens bearish, high twenties bullish), VIX % single day change. + 5 or greater bullish. -5 or less, bearish. VIX % change 5 day m.a. +3.0 or above bullish, -3.0 or below, bearish. Advances minus declines three day m.a.( +500 is bearish. – 500 is bullish). Supply Demand 5 day m.a. (.45 or below is a positive. .80 or above is a negative). Trading Index (TRIN) 1.40 or above bullish. No level for bearish.
      No guarantees are made. Traders can and do lose money. The publisher may take positions in recommended securities.

Green Light Silver

Silver looks like it has bottomed and will move substantially higher.  Why?

Long Term – 25+ years:  Examine the silver to gold ratio since 1990.  The ratio is currently low and appears to have bottomed.  Silver bottoms when the ratio bottoms.  Expect a multi-year rally.

J-SIGC-Ratio

Medium Term – 15+ years

….read more HERE

Todd Market Forecast for Wednesday February 24, 2016

DOW                                                 + 53 on 550 net advances
 
NASDAQ COMP                                  + 39 on 550 net advances
 
SHORT TERM TREND                         Bullish  
 
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND            Bearish
 
  STOCKS: Another crazy day. The Dow was down as much as 266 points in sympathy with oil. When crude reversed, so did the stock market. See the chart below.
       It’s very unusual for the stock market to be captive to another market. I would have thought that this slavish lockstep would have ended by now, but it hasn’t.
       Oil sank because some OPEC officials were back tracking on the production limits, but rose after crude oil inventories showed another increase, but gasoline stocks declined.
       Regarding trading, check out the “Interesting Stuff” section below.
        
   GOLD:  Gold was up $8. It was much higher intraday. The stock market reversal caused gold to reverse
 
 CHART: The USO is a crude oil ETF. You can see the relationship between it and the stock market in this intraday chart.
aff62610-0877-4414-8050-bfaa614b12f1
 
BOTTOM LINE:  (Trading)
Our intermediate term system is on a sell as of February 9.
   System 7  We are long the SSO from 56.94. Stay with it on Thursday.                   
   System 8   We are in cash. Stay there.
GOLD  We are in cash. Stay there.     
 
News and fundamentals: New home sales came in at 494,000, less than the expected 540,000. On Thursday we get jobless claims and durable goods orders.     
Interesting Stuff  Trading this market is tough. I’m sure many of you would not have been able to hang on today. If trading were easy, we would all be rich. With a market this wild, you need to trade lightly enough to hold on to positions through intraday selloffs.
TORONTO EXCHAN GE:   Toronto dropped 23.
S&P/TSX VENTURE COMP: The TSX was up 1.           
BONDS:  Bonds were flat to down.                                                                                                                                             
THE REST:  The dollar rose slightly. Silver was flat to down. Crude oil managed a small rise.                                                                                                
 
Bonds –Bearish from Feb. 12.                           
 
U.S. dollar – Bullish as of Feb. 16.                              
 
Euro — Bearish as of Feb. 19.  
 
Gold —-Bearish as of February 22.                                
 
Silver—- Bearish as of February 22.                            
 
Crude oil —- Bearish from January 5.                               
 
Toronto Stock Exchange—- Bullish from January 22.    
 
S&P\ TSX Venture Fund — Bullish from January 29.       
 
We are on a long term buy signal for the markets of the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany and France.  
Wed. Thu. Fri. Mon. Tue. Wed. Evaluation
Monetary conditions 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 day RSI S&P 500 72 66 66 76 57 62 0
5 day RSI NASDAQ 74 63 65 73 56 63  0
McCl-
lAN OSC.
+191 +174 +154 +226 +148 +168
 
Composite Gauge 5 12 10 4 16 9 0
Comp. Gauge, 5 day m.a. 8.4 8.0 7.2 7.0 9.4 10.2 0
CBOE Put Call Ratio 1.14 1.07 1.03 .95 1.12 1.04
+
 
VIX 22.31 21.65 20.53 19.38 20.28 20.72 0
VIX % change -7 -3 -1 -6 +8 -1 0
VIX % change 5 day m.a. -3.2 -4.0 -5.2 -4.4 -1.8 -0.6 0
Adv – Dec 3 day m.a. +1882 +1301 +624 +502 +143 +380  0
Supply Demand 5 day m.a. .69 .71 .80 .79 .61 .62 0
Trading Index (TRIN) .58 1.51 1.76 .37 1.96 1.06
 0
 
S&P 500
 
1927 1918 1918 1946 1921 1930 Plurality 0
 INDICATOR PARAMETERS
     Monetary conditions (+2 means the Fed is actively dropping rates; +1 means a bias toward easing. 0 means neutral, -1 means a bias toward tightening, -2 means actively raising rates). RSI (30 or below is oversold, 80 or above is overbought). McClellan Oscillator ( minus 100 is oversold. Plus 100 is overbought). Composite Gauge (5 or below is negative, 13 or above is positive). Composite Gauge five day m.a. (8.0 or below is overbought. 13.0 or above is oversold). CBOE Put Call Ratio ( .80 or below is a negative. 1.00 or above is a positive). Volatility Index, VIX (low teens bearish, high twenties bullish), VIX % single day change. + 5 or greater bullish. -5 or less, bearish. VIX % change 5 day m.a. +3.0 or above bullish, -3.0 or below, bearish. Advances minus declines three day m.a.( +500 is bearish. – 500 is bullish). Supply Demand 5 day m.a. (.45 or below is a positive. .80 or above is a negative). Trading Index (TRIN) 1.40 or above bullish. No level for bearish.
      No guarantees are made. Traders can and do lose money. The publisher may take positions in recommended securities.

Rising Global Tensions Can Make You Big Money …

One of the most important aspects of the rising tide of geopolitical disruptions — as spelled out by the research I have done on war cycles — is how they are impacting the world’s financial markets. 

As I’ve discussed many times in the past, they are changing everything you thought you knew about investing. 

Consider the U.S. property markets, which have already recovered from their lows quite nicely — even as mortgage rates have stabilized and started moving higher.

Consider how the Chinese and Europeans, as well as the Canadians, are now the biggest foreign buyers of U.S. real estate, which is helping to support that sector.

Consider that recently, a Chinese-led investor group announced it would buy the Chicago Stock Exchange.

Or that there have already been 82 Chinese outbound mergers-and-acquisitions deals announced this year, amounting to $73 billion in value, according to Dealogic. That’s up from 55 deals worth $6.2 billion in the same period last year.

Or consider gold, which is now nearly 16 percent above its bear market low of last December, moving up right on schedule, even though the U.S. dollar also remains strong.

Or the U.S. stock markets, whose bear market correction is continually being supported by foreign capital inflows. 

You are going to see and hear more about foreign-capital inflows in the months and years ahead. Inflows that will shock you and cause wild moves in markets that defy logic.

Moves that dumbfound most U.S. analysts, especially those — the majority of them — who still focus merely on the U.S. economy and who ignore what’s happening on a global basis.

Screen Shot 2016-02-24 at 7.51.14 AMGold will rise with a stronger dollar. Commodity prices in general will soon bottom and head higher, even though the global economy remains lackluster at best. Oil, for instance, has already bottomed, again right on cue with my forecasts.

Equity markets and property prices will increase with rising interest rates.

So what then is the common denominator behind these market moves? 

What’s the fuel that is causing the linkages between them to change, wreaking havoc on old rules of thumb and ushering in new relationships between markets, between economic data and logic … 

Creating forces that you must grasp to truly protect and grow your wealth?

It’s geopolitics and international capital flows. Reasons:

Today, we live in a world where governments are at war with each other. Propaganda wars. Trade wars. Currency wars.

Today, we live in a world where governments are getting ready to reignite “hot” wars: Russia/Ukraine. China/Japan. Israel/Gaza.  Then, there’s ISIS and its rampage in the Middle East.

And today, we also live in a world where the bankrupt governments of the West are waging wars against their very own citizens, via tax hikes, confiscatory schemes, and capital controls. 

All of this is causing capital in nearly every corner of the globe to take flight, leaving risky countries and investments and heading toward safer shores.

For many months now. I have told you that those capital flows are pointing directly toward the United States. Savvy European investors are moving their investments out of Europe in droves. 

Middle Eastern money is also coming to our shores. Savvy Chinese investors are investing in the Unites States hand over fist, and especially in U.S. property markets.

My view: Based on how the war cycles are ramping up for another five years and how they do not show any relief until 2020, capital is likely to continue to stampede into U.S. investments. 

Reason: Despite our country’s problems, we remain one of the safest countries on the planet, with the most open, liquid and diverse markets in the world.

My words for you: Follow the money going forward. The international capital flows. They are the single biggest key to protecting and growing your wealth now and for many moons to come.

Best wishes,

Larry

P.S. We are on the cusp of the most profitable bull market of our lifetime. Stocks will be driven higher by powerful global undercurrents that Wall Street will either ignore or fail to understand. As the Dow doubles, some stocks will see explosive gains of 300%, 400%, 500% and more. Savvy investors who make the right moves will become very rich! Click here for my free report and to find out how it could make you rich beyond your dreams.

When Will Gold and Gold Stocks Correct?

Wednesday evening we raised a question in a subscriber update. We wrote: The current question for Gold and gold stocks is if they will push to higher targets before or a correction or if a correction has already started. We should know the answer in the next day or two. The gold stocks exploded higher on Thursday. GDX gained 6% while GDXJ surged 7.4%. Meanwhile, Gold solidified its support at $1200/oz. Markets that become overbought within strong trends can become extremely overbought before they correct. Recent price action in the precious metals complex argues that the path of least resistance in the short term continues to be higher.

The chart below plots the weekly candle charts of GDXJ and GDX. The first observation is although the miners are very overbought on the daily charts, they aren’t that overbought on the weekly charts. They will close this week flat after three strong weeks of gains. Also, the miners figure to face stronger resistance at higher levels. GDXJ is trading pennies below $25.00. If it surpasses its 80-week moving average then its next target is $27-$28. (Note that a measured move from the July 2015 to January 2016 consolidation projects to $28). Meanwhile, GDX is holding above previous resistance at $18. Its next strong resistance targets are $21 and $22. (The measured move from the July 2015 to January 2016 consolidation projects to $21).

Feb192016GDXJw

The monthly chart of Gold continues to give the most clarity on its prognosis. We have written about the importance of Gold holding support at $1180-$1200/oz, which it did this week. A monthly close above that support adds greater confirmation to a change in the primary trend. Gold has near-term upside potential to $1285/oz which marks monthly resistance and contains the 40-month moving average. Note that weekly resistance is at $1294. In addition, there should be very strong monthly resistance at $1330.

Feb192016Goldm

The odds favor Gold and gold stocks continuing to move higher before a correction begins. Both GDX and GDXJ could gain more than 10% before reaching stronger resistance while Gold has upside potential to $1285-$1294/oz. The counter-trend moves within very strong trends occur quickly. Gold declined from $1264/oz to $1192/oz in less than three days while the miners (GDX and GDXJ) have corrected 9-10% twice in the past ten days. Unless Gold and gold stocks fall below Thursday’s lows then we should anticipate higher prices in the short-term. A bigger correction will come but not yet. Consider learning more about our premium service including our favorite junior miners which we expect to outperform in 2016.