Timing & trends

Hedge Fund Strategies for Normal Investors

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For full Image (much longer) and analysis go HERE

In a Warren Buffett note from 2006, he credits the famous value investor Benjamin Graham as the co-creator of the first-ever hedge fund in the mid-1920s. 

“It involved a partnership structure, a percentage-of-profits compensation arrangement for Ben as general partner, a number of limited partners and a variety of long and short positions,” Buffett’s letter says. 

That means that hedge funds have been around for nearly a century – and they have almost exclusively existed as a vehicle for institutions and wealthy, private investors…..continue reading HERE

Todd Market Forecast

Available Mon- Friday after 6:00 P.M. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific.  
                 
DOW                                                + 52 on 950 net declines
 
NASDAQ COMP                               – 6 on 700 net declines
 
SHORT TERM TREND                        Bearish
 
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND           Bullish
 
STOCKS: Interesting. A decline of over 5% in China overnight and a drop of over 6% for crude oil and our oversold market managed a rebound. 
      To be sure, it wasn’t much of a rebound. There were many more declining issues than advancing ones, but we’ll take it. Breadth could change for the better. Stay tuned.
          
GOLD: Gold gave back another $4. A dollar rebound and a rally in stocks were probably the reason.
 
CHART: The Composite Gauge 5 day moving average is reported nightly on this hotline. When it moves over 14.0, there is a strong likelihood that we will see a multi day rebound.
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BOTTOM LINE:  (Trading)
Our intermediate term system is on a buy as of August 26.
System 7  We are in cash. If there are more advancing issues than declining ones at 3:45 EST on Tuesday. Buy the SSO at the close.   
System 8   We are in cash. Stay there.                    
GOLD  We are in cash. Stay there.     
 
News and fundamentals:. There were no important economic news items on Monday. On Tuesday we get the job openings (JOLTS).    
 
Interesting Stuff : Our markets have correlated poorly with Asian markets in the past. It’s about time to separate ourselves from what is going on in China which I would argue has little to do with us.
 
TORONTO EXCHAN GE:   Toronto dropped 126.                    
S&P/TSX VENTURE COMP: The TSX was minus 7.          
BONDS:  Bonds pulled back.                                                                                                                                
THE REST:  The dollar was higher. Silver was lower. Crude oil got mangled.                                                                                 
Bonds –Bullish as of January 8.                           
 
U.S. dollar – Bullish as of Dec. 17.                             
 
Euro — Bearish from January 5.
 
Gold —-Bullish as of January 6.                              
 
Silver—- Bearish from December 14.                           
 
Crude oil —- Bearish from January 5.                               
 
Toronto Stock Exchange—- Bearish since December 8.    
 
S&P\ TSX Venture Fund — Bearish since December 8.      
 
We are on a long term buy signal for the markets of the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany and France.  
Mon. Tue. Wed. Thu. Fri. Mon. Evaluation
Monetary conditions 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 day RSI S&P 500  30 33 19 15 12 13 +
5 day RSI NASDAQ 26 25 24 11 10 9  +
McCl-
lAN OSC.
-30 0 -75 -177 -194 -206
+
 
Composite Gauge 15 10 15 17 17 12 0
Comp. Gauge, 5 day m.a. 12.4 12.2 14.2 14.6 14.8 14.2 +
CBOE Put Call Ratio 1.07 .99 1.01 1.39 1.34 1.12
+
 
VIX 20.70 19.34 20.59 24.99 27.01 24.3 0
VIX % change +14 -7 +6 +21 +8 -10
VIX % change 5 day m.a. +5.8 +3.0 +5.2 +7.8 +8.4 +3.6 +
Adv – Dec 3 day m.a. -1063 -466 -728 -1089 -1584 -1403  +
Supply Demand 5 day m.a. .47 .43 .32 .33 .34 .38 +
Trading Index (TRIN) 1.29 1.26 1.98 1.30 1.81 .76
 0
 
S&P 500
 
2013 2017 1990 1943 1922 1924 Plurality +7
 INDICATOR PARAMETERS
     Monetary conditions (+2 means the Fed is actively dropping rates; +1 means a bias toward easing. 0 means neutral, -1 means a bias toward tightening, -2 means actively raising rates). RSI (30 or below is oversold, 80 or above is overbought). McClellan Oscillator ( minus 100 is oversold. Plus 100 is overbought). Composite Gauge (5 or below is negative, 13 or above is positive). Composite Gauge five day m.a. (8.0 or below is overbought. 13.0 or above is oversold). CBOE Put Call Ratio ( .80 or below is a negative. 1.00 or above is a positive). Volatility Index, VIX (low teens bearish, high twenties bullish), VIX % single day change. + 5 or greater bullish. -5 or less, bearish. VIX % change 5 day m.a. +3.0 or above bullish, -3.0 or below, bearish. Advances minus declines three day m.a.( +500 is bearish. – 500 is bullish). Supply Demand 5 day m.a. (.45 or below is a positive. .80 or above is a negative). Trading Index (TRIN) 1.40 or above bullish. No level for bearish.
      No guarantees are made. Traders can and do lose money. The publisher may take positions in recommended securities.

One Crisis Way From A Monumental “Totalitarian” Mistake

The ‘Crisis of Trust’ Signals a ‘Failure of Leadership’

Recent research released by both the Pew Research Center and Gallup warn of an accelerating erosion in confidence in the US government, politicians and the political process. It is clear to most Americans that we have a growing “Crisis of Trust” which is signaling a “Failure of Leadership” as governments steadily exert increasing power and authority over our lives!

Four Years Ago We Became Seriously Alarmed!

In the fall of 2012 having become seriously alarmed, we wrote our annual thesis paper entitled “STATISM” and laid out the frightening direction we saw in US political leadership. We had initially hoped it was a cyclical pattern which had reached a cyclical bottom.

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We Focused, Mapped & Tracked It

 

Our subsequent research efforts have resulted in a large supporting video library of expert guest interviews at Macro Analytics embellishing on each of the sequentially emerging boxes in the following road-map and additionally the creation of the Financial Repression Authority to understand how our sacred public freedoms were being unwittingly surrendered through financial bondage.

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The detailed research included a focus on the driving linkages between the identified stages as the developed economies (and the US in particular) accelerated towards more centralized government control of almost all facets of our lives.

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Where We Find Purselves Today

The facts are overwhelming and indisputable for anyone taking the time (which we did) to do their ‘due diligence’. Time and space which we don’t have here.

As we now agonizingly watch the US Presidential Primary Campaigns, cognoscente of what we previously witnessed in the UK (Jeremy Corbyn), Italy (Beppo Brillo), France (Marie Le Pen) and a raft of other political hot areas, we see a now unquestionable deteriorating shift. A shift firmly rooted in a Crisis of Trust and a direct result of a Failure of Leadership.

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One Crisis Way From A Monumental “Totalitarian” Mistake

The Financial Repression Authority is presently concerned that a Geo-political event, conflict or crisis could soon abruptly catapult the developed economies into a mistaken political direction and a deeper cyclical low. A cycle which is presently already on a dangerous trajectory. Paul Craig Roberts (a former US Assistant Treasury Secretary) just frustratingly penned “The Rule Of Law No Longer Exists In Western Civilization” outlining the seriousness of criminal and immoral actions by the US government. He illustrates that the dictatorial methods and unlegislated executive orders by the current President to overturn the Second Amendment are now the political leadership ‘order of the day’ and writes: “He (Obama) has the corrupt US Department of Justice, a criminal organization, looking for ways for the dictator to overturn both Congressional legislation and Supreme Court rulings.”

Conclusion

Paul Craig Roberts and the Financial Repression Authority (FRA) sadly concludes – “Out of Evil comes Dictatorship”

As the insightful Canadian National Anthem warns so well, we must all now “Stand on Guard for Thee!”

Never more than today.

 Summary:

 

  • Chris welcomes back Jim Rogers from his Singapore office, who says a financial crisis is imminent. 
  • His largest currency position remains the US dollar, which will likely rally into a bubble which eventually implodes in spectacular fashion. 
  • Although not a safe haven, the US dollar seems impervious relative to most global currencies, for the moment. 
  • He continues to monitor the gold market for signs of capitulation, to add to his stockpile. 
  • Russian and Chinese firms present appealing investment opportunities. 
  • Jim Rogers holds short positions in US shares, in anticipation of further volatility on the heels of the Fed rate hikes.
  • The zinc market is off over 90%, making ETF shares (ZINC) a potential turn around candidate in the coming weeks / months / years. 
  • Chairman of SchiffGold.com, Peter Schiff returns to the show with dire warnings of a looming currency crisis.
  • His work indicates that eventually, momentum will return to the gold market, making $100+ days commonplace culminating $5,000 gold.
  • The multi-year bull market in stocks may be viewed in retrospect as a Fed fomented bubble, which crushes million of retirement portfolios. 
  • Artificially low rates inspired large corporations to repurchase their shares via cheap debt, which can only end badly for investors. 
  • Although US retail sales are solid, better leading economic indicators like the Dallas Manufacturing Index and the US Weekly Leading Index are rolling over (Figures 1.1. & 1.2.). 
  • The dollar was on the verge of collapse during the credit crisis, but was saved by the bailout.
  • The next decline will require the formation of an entirely new currency.

5 facts That Most People Don’t Know But Should

by Michael Campbell

  • There are $3,744,000,000,000 worth of negative yield government bonds in circulation in Europe. That represents 40% of the total.

….continue reading HERE

 

Is the Recession Starting?

by Martin Armstrong

The ISM purchasing managers’ index for the manufacturing sector in December 2015 in the USA has plummeted to its lowest level since June of 2009. This warns that the U.S. economy is entering a recession that is in line with the forecast of the ECM and the rise in the dollar.

…continue reading HERE

 

Our “Storm Warning” for the Year Ahead…

by Bill Bonner

it is a new year… and we face new conditions. New challenges. New threats. 

But at least we know how the waves work… floating prices up one side and down the other. 

And so let’s begin 2016 by looking at the choppy waters. Where are we? Are we on the upside? Or the downside? 

….continue reading HERE