“The company still poses a “Lehman Brothers”-level risk to the global economy”

A lot of powerful voices have joined me in warning about the potential threat that Glencore Plc. (LON: GLEN) poses to global financial markets. Bank of America, for instance, has published a report on the true size of the fallout. As you’ll see in a moment, it’s staggering. 

But since we talked about Glencore late last month, something insane has happened: The stock has gone up.

But not for any good reason. The company has not righted the ship. The surge is only due to short-sellers covering their positions. 

The ugly truth is, the company is still a “shining” example of exactly what’s wrong with these markets. 

And I fear individual investors will get caught in the mess and wiped out on a stock like this or some of the others around it. 

That’s why I want to call out the misapprehensions and lies that are causing this “fauxcovery” and show you what’s next. 

Because it could end up even worse than I thought… Full Story

I hope you’ve been following my forecasts for the precious metals. If not, then here’s a brief summary of all the opportunities you missed …

 September 2000: Gold was trading at the $255 to $265 level. That’s when I turned bullish on gold as the Co-Editor of Safe Money Report. Gold began an 11-year bull market.

 September 2008: Gold plunges in the middle of the real estate crisis. Most analysts were convinced it was the end of gold’s bull market. Not me. I stood pat and told my subscribers to buy into the selling panic and increase their allocations from 15% of their portfolios in gold to a full 25%. Gold subsequently exploded higher, soaring to well over $1,000 an ounce.

 September 7, 2011: Gold hits a record high of $1,920 an ounce.

September 18, 2011. In my Real Wealth Report, issue #89, and in other articles I publish, I proclaim the high is in and that gold is entering an interim bear market.

Eleven days after gold’s record high, I give my Real Wealth subscribers specific recommendations to exit or hedge their gold holdings. Gold plunges almost $200 an ounce. 

October and December 2011: I instruct my Real Wealth Report subscribers to add to their gold hedges and to exit ALL mining shares. Gold plunges anew.

 February 2013: George Soros DUMPS half his gold holdings, reeling in losses. Unlike Real Wealth subscribers, who already knew gold was in an interim bear market and who exited or hedged their gold, measured from gold’s record high — Soros’ gold holdings lose roughly 29% of their value.

 April 12, 2013: Goldman Sachs turns bearish gold. Gold has already lost more than $350 from its record high, or 18%. 

Goldman turns bullish again after the mid-April 2013 devastating gold rout. I say no: Gold is set to fall more.

 April 15, 2013: Clinging desperately to their gold, giant gold investors John Paulson and David Einhorn are hit with $640 billion in losses.

 
Click image for larger view

You can see all the dates and twists and turns in gold and my forecasts in this chart here. Since I initially forecast gold’s interim bear market way back on Sept. 18, 2011, by April 2013 gold had plunged more than 28% while the average mining share had lost more than twice that, a whopping 59.8%.

 June/July 2014: I announce that gold and silver’s bull market may be bottoming. But after quickly seeing that they failed to hold support, I warn my readers of a resumption of the bear market. 

Gold and silver begin their next leg down. Gold plummets from roughly $1,350 to its July 2015 low of $1,073. Silver from its July 2014 high of near $22 to its August 2015 low of just under $14. 

So how much longer will the precious metals bear market last? And how about their latest rallies —  are they the real thing?

No one knows for sure, and anyone who says they do is full of it. But I do have models and tools that I believe can get us close to the bottom. Just like they did in September 2000, or the wicked decline in 2008, or very near the top in 2011.

I can’t give you my detailed forecast in this column. It’s not fair to paying subscribers. But I can tell you this …

A. The bear market in precious metals is not yet over. 

B. The final lows though, may not be that far off in time. And …

C. When they do come, gold is likely to be well below $1,000 and silver near $13, or lower.

Moreover, when those lows do come, almost everyone will be proclaiming the death of precious metals. 

Another question …

Why are precious metals collapsing when all is not well with the world? 

There are several reasons and I’ve written about them numerous times. But there are three chief reasons …

First, from a cyclical and technical perspective, it’s just not time yet for their interim bear markets to come to a close. Nor is it time yet for the next phase of their long-term bull markets to reemerge.

Second, deflation still has the upper hand right now. It’s everywhere, from sliding prices in Europe, to Asia, to Japan and the U.S. 

Most recently, it’s Germany that’s now feeling the pain of deflation, with its economy rolling over, industrial production sliding. Economic growth stalling and little or no inflation.

Third, there are still too may bulls in the market. They jump all over every rally, like the current one, proclaiming a new bull market is at hand.

But that’s not how markets work. Important lasting bottoms occur when the majority of investors want nothing at all to do with that market. 

Conclusion: The precious metals bear market is not yet over. But the potential for it to end soon is now within sight. 80 to 85 percent of the price declines are over. It’s time to start paying very close attention to the precious metals, which I am of course doing. 

Best wishes,

Larry

UBER is now worth $51 billion, the largest taxi company in the world and it doesn’t have any cars!

The world’s economy has always been dependent on startups and innovative business ideas, the graphic below shows what the current landscape looks like as well as who the driving forces are behind today’s entrepreneurial race….click on image below to see Full Visual Graphic

or view the full graphic below. Click on it to see the full size:

“Is there a cycle — or combination of cycles — that, due to patterns deeply embedded in history, come together in the tenth month more often than mere chance would dictate? 

Consider some of the most salient Octobers of the 20th and 21st centuries, and then make up your own mind” – Martin D. Weiss Ph.D

October 1907 — Panic of ’07.  A major bond offering by New York City fails … the copper market collapses … Standard Oil is slammed with a massive $29 million fine for antitrust violations … and stocks plunge. 

On October 22, Knickerbocker Trust, the second-largest trust company in the United States, is forced to suspend operations, triggering an especially intense wave of fear on Wall Street plus massive cash withdrawals from New York banks.

The U.S. Federal Reserve does not yet exist. But J.P. Morgan steps in to play the role of lender of last resort, injecting liquidity into financial markets by buying up bonds, orchestrating multimillion loans, and preventing a wholesale collapse in the economic system.

October 1912 — Balkan War, prelude to World War I. Exactly five years later, it’s Europe’s turn to plunge into crisis, leading to the First Balkan War.

The Ottoman Empire has been encouraging Muslim populations of Bosnia to join the Empire and move to districts of northern Macedonia to restore the number of Muslims in the region. Meanwhile, Muslim immigrants join Albanian Muslims in a series of uprisings. 

Peter the First of Serbia issues a declaration in support for Serbian and Albanian Christians living under Ottoman rule, declaring that his army will “join the Holy War to free our brethren.” Soon Montenegro, Bulgaria, Serbia and Greece declare war on the Ottomans. 

The events foreshadow World War I, ultimately claiming the lives of more than 16 million soldiers and civilians. 

October 1918 — influenza pandemic. This is the deadliest month of the deadliest pandemic in history, with a record 195,000 Americans succumbing to influenza in just 31 days. Before it’s all over, 50 to 100 million people are killed and 500 million are infected worldwide.

October 1922 — fascism in Italy. On October 25, Benito Mussolini celebrates the close of his Fascist Party Congress in Naples. On October 27, he embarks on his historic March of the Blackshirts on Rome. On October 28, he seizes power. And on October 29, he’s named Foreign Minister, Interior Minister and Prime Minister of Italy. 

October 1923 — German hyperinflation. Prices in Germany are rising at the most rapid pace of almost any month in history, driving the value of the German mark down to more than four trillion to the dollar. Making matters worse, separatists and communist movements in Germany spread to Bavaria and Saxony.

October 1929 — Crash of ’29. This month delivers more than just the Black Thursday of October 24, when the Dow loses 11% of its value. It’s also the month of Black Monday (October 28, when the Dow falls 13%) … and of Black Tuesday of October 29 (Dow down 12%) … followed by the deepest bear market in U.S. history.

…..read about the 10 other significant October events during the balance of the 20th Century and into the 21st Century HERE

Clear Signs That The Great Derivatives Crisis Has Begun

by Michael Snyder

While things may seem somewhat calm on Wall Street at the moment, the truth is that a great deal of trouble is bubbling just under the surface.

…..read it all HERE

Jim Rogers: I Would Not Be Buying U.S. Real Estate

The Chinese rush to buy U.S. Real Estate is probably a sign of a top in that market. 

…..listen to Jim’s  podcast HERE

also from Rogers:

China Will Not Save Us Like They Did In 2008-09

Holy Hell About to Break Loose …

by Larry Edelson

Global equity markets are teetering on the edge of a cliff. For some, like Europe’s markets, it will be the beginning of a long, drawn out bear market.

….read it all HERE