Timing & trends
Frequent the business section of your favorite newspaper long enough, and you’ll see mentions of private equity (PE).
Maybe it’s because a struggling company got bought out and taken private, just as Toys “R” Us did in 2005 for $6.6 billion.
Otherwise, it’s likely a mention of a major investment (or payout) that a PE firm scored through venture or growth capital. For example, after Airbnb had to postpone its original plans for a 2020 initial public offering (IPO) in light of the pandemic, the company raised more than $1 billion in PE funding to plan for a new listing later this year.
Yet many people don’t fully understand the size and scope of private equity. To demonstrate the impact of PE, we break down the funds raised by the top 25 firms over the last five years…CLICK for complete article

The coming week will be the busiest and most important 5 days of the year, if not decade. It is a “huge week” for investors with the election, a Fed decision, 128 S&P earnings, October payrolls, ongoing pandemic lockdowns and a ton of economic data all due.
“Whichever way you look at it, this coming week will be huge for U.S. and global markets,” said Simon Ballard, chief economist at First Abu Dhabi Bank PJSC. “We see the potential for a sharp rise in volatility around these events — and all in the context of a still deteriorating Covid-19 situation across much of the U.S., Europe and elsewhere.”
Starting with the pandemic, as DB’s Jim Reid writes this morning, Europe is facing up to a harsh winter ahead. The question to be asked to all the European countries is can they come out of these measures in some form towards the end of November/early December as is hoped or will they be extended further. The hit to the U.K. economy which just announced a new round of lockdowns will be softened by an extension of the furlough scheme but that will only add more to the debt. The hope everywhere is that well before the winter/spring peak virus season is over we’ll have the start of a vaccine program or more realistically in the near term a huge advance in rapid result testing. The latter has to be the greatest hope of restrictions being eased before a vaccine has mass rollout. Meanwhile, overnight Bloomberg reported that Italy might tighten restrictions further today with PM Conte wanting more localised curbs depending on virus transmissions – something some regional authorities are resisting.
Covid aside, of course the top event this week be tomorrow’s US election off the front pages for the next few days: 93.29 million have already voted so far, which is 67.7% of 2016’s total, and as Reid notes, “It’s fair to say markets could look very different on Wednesday morning as a “Blue Wave”, if it happens, should get the stimulus junkies hungry to buy and a divided government could remind people of the long winter ahead. So a very big week.”

By and large, the US Election, the Pandemic and the Brexit game of chicken are all distractions.
Real issues like growth, employment and markets remain bound up in surging sovereign and corporate debt fuelled by ultra-low and negative interest rates. Global markets remain utterly distorted. Financial Asset Stagflation – bonds and equities getting more and more expensive as the economy deflates is a consequence of the monetary policy decisions of the last few years.
Are we looking the wrong way? Full Story

The global economy can seem like an abstract concept, yet it influences our everyday lives in both obvious and subtle ways. Nowhere is this clearer than in the current economic state amid the throes of the pandemic.
This voronoi-style visualization from HowMuch relies on gross domestic product (GDP) data from the World Bank to paint a picture of the global economy—which crested $87.8 trillion in 2019.

There is a distinct chill in the air when it comes to markets this morning. Whatever Mnuchin and Powell say, the absence of further stimulus in the run up to a possibly tumultuous American election that may stretch uncertainty till Inauguration day in Jan 2021 is dominating the action in the US. (What kinds confusion might occur as they argue who runs the country..?) The “risks are weighted to the downside” says the Fed. The rising dollar is like a falling barometer telling us a Gale is coming.
The glass is falling…
Here in Europe, the dominant force is the Coronavirus, recession and jobs. It’s not just a UK crisis. Growth has fled. Recession in a sinking European economy will deepen. Even Sweden is admitting rising infections require a response – which will be measured, minimal and left to individuals to enforce. Something must be seriously wrong in France – they are copying Boris with 10 pm bar closings. France admitting England is right? That is serious m*rde. It’s not just stocks. Bond markets are beginning to sag with credit under increasing pressure. It’s a sign confidence is waning.
What more can governments and central banks do? We’ve thrown the kitchen sink at the virus, but the numbers are rising. Central Banks have cut rates to historically lowest levels ever and economic activity is falling… QE Infinity promises liquidity is not an issue – but holders want to sell….
