I forgot to warn you before I left for spring break that markets tend to decline when I am out of town. However, since my return, the markets have jerked their way back in a recovery with each rally day followed by a sell-off.

The lower part of the chart shows a simplistic short-term overbought/oversold indicator. As you can see the markets were oversold following the previous week’s sell-off, but that condition has now worked off.  Importantly, the markets have now become overbought again WITHOUT the markets making new highs. While it is too early to call as of yet, these are classic signs of a market that is in a topping process.

However, despite the choppy action over the last few months, investor complacency has once again returned towards historical lows. Of course, the “lack of fear,” from a contrarian standpoint, is “something to fear” in and of itself.

While price action has been substantially more volatile as of late, the number of investors “fearing” a market correction has evaporated once again.

…..read more HERE

You couldn’t ask for a more poignant, more blatant illustration of how out-of-touch central bankers are with the average man on the street than the one we got this week in Europe.

On Wednesday, the monetary policy elites gathered in Frankfurt, Germany. Mayor Peter Feldmann. The local economy minister. The 25 members of the European Central Bank’s governing council. ECB President Mario Draghi.

They were there to celebrate the inauguration of a gleaming new 1.3 billion euro ($1.4 billion) headquarters building. The tower isn’t literally made of ivory; it’s a 600-foot-tall tinted-glass edifice that took five years to build. But as sheltered, privileged, and isolated as its policy members and staffers are, it might as well be!

Meanwhile, a group called “Blockupy” decided to rain on the parade. It drew from a wide range of members and more than 90 affiliated groups around Europe to organize a major anti-ECB protest. Those affiliates included a leading German labor union and the Greek Syriza party that was swept into power on an anti-austerity platform this January.

Estimated to be several thousand strong, the protesters torched police cars, tires, furniture, and garbage. They blocked major roads and bridges, prompting tear gas volleys from authorities, as well as more than 350 arrests.

Why is Blockupy so mad?

Because they maintain that the policies pushed by the ECB, the International Monetary Fund, and the European Commission represent the vested interests of the wealthy investor/banker/creditor class. They do nothing for average workers and citizens but push them further into a nightmare of unemployment and poverty, all in the name of preventing losses for the well-to-do.

The bigger issue here is that we’re seeing more and more tension boiling over like this. Not just in Frankfurt. But all over Europe, the Middle East, South America and more! You could even throw the U.S. in that mix, given some of the major protests we’ve seen recently.

The common thread is the gap between the haves and the have nots. Government officials and central bankers have failed to address that gap in a cogent, effective, and sensible productive manner. Unless and until the economic recovery broadens out — and policymakers stop trying to coddle bankers at the expense of everyone else — we’re going to see more and more Frankfurts on the evening news.

That, in turn, will lead to more market volatility. We’ll see increasingly wild swings in currency, bond, and stock markets — with all the attendant consequences for your portfolio! So be sure to keep your eye on my latest Money and Markets updates.

Or for more specific advice and actionable “buy” and “sell” signals, give my Safe Money Reportnewsletter a try. In light of the increased volatility — and the risk of an impending “Bloody Wednesday” event due to recent central bank actions — I just sent out a crucial, time-sensitive alert to my subscribers last week. They were able to bag double-digit profits on a long-held position as a result, and I foresee many more such opportunities around the corner!

Until next time,

Mike

What Titanic? The RMS Titanic, or any of the following:

• A titanic quantity of derivatives – say 1,000 Trillion dollars. A derivative crash was at the center of the 2008 market meltdown. It could happen again since there is now more debt, leverage, and risk than in 2008.
• A titanic accumulation of debt – global debt is approximately $200 Trillion. Global population is about 7,000,000,000 so there is about $28,000 in debt per living human being. If global debt were backed by all the gold mined in the history of the world, an ounce of gold would back $36,000 in debt. Gold currently sells for less than $1,200. Gold is undervalued and there is an excess of debt.
• A titanic increase in debt in the past decade. Official US debt increased by over $10,000,000,000,000 in the past ten years. What did the US gain from the increase of $10 Trillion in debt? Are debt accumulation and expense policies materially different in Europe or Japan? Was the debt used to create productive assets or was it just flushed down the toilet into non-productive expenditures? THE BENEFIT IS GONE, BUT THE DEBT REMAINS. This debt accumulation policy is neither good business nor sustainable.
• A titanic bond bubble. Since interest rates are currently at multi-generational lows, or 700 year lows in Europe, or perhaps all-time lows, that strongly suggests a bubble in bonds. Would you buy a bond from an insolvent government knowing the government will pay you next to nothing in interest over the next ten years? Further, the government is guaranteeing a devalued currency so any dollars, euros, or yen you eventually receive will be worth much less in purchasing power than today.
• A titanic currency bubble in the US dollar, which just hit a 12 year high after a parabolic rise since May last year. Experience with parabolic rises suggests extreme caution.
• A titanic collapse in the crude oil market. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and prices have fallen to about $45 from about $105 last June. The last time crude oil prices fell was from July to October 2008, a most difficult time.

The titanic creation of paper assets such as bonds, currencies, and stocks has created substantial risk. That risk has spilled over into the crude oil, gold and silver markets since they are strongly influenced by the paper derivative markets – paper contracts for crude oil, paper gold, and paper silver. Leverage and derivatives magnify risk. The instability will eventually create a second version of the 2008 recession/depression.

MORE SPECIFICS:

Business Inventories to Sales Ratio looks like 2008: This ratio is discussed here. When people and businesses are buying less inventories increase and that affects businesses down the chain including manufacturing, retail, and transportation.

More Crazy Stuff Coming: Read David Stockman’s article.

Margin Debt on US stock exchange: Margin debt peaks along with S&P 500 index. See discussion here.

Ten Year Yields: Yields are low in the United States and Europe. German five year yields went negative this week and ten year yields are less than 0.3%. Such negative yields would have been unthinkable a few years ago. I think a titanic disappointment is coming. Martin Armstrong discussed negative interest rates in his article, “Negative Interest Rates – Brain-dead Thinking that Will Implode the World.”

S&P Earnings per Share versus price: Graham Summers discusses in his article, “This Divergence is Worse Than That of The 2007 Top.”

S&P Prices up 200% in Six Years: The S&P 500 Index has been levitated by central banks “printing” money. In March of 2009 the S&P was below 680 and today it is above 2,000. See this article for discussion and warning.

Examine this monthly chart of the S&P 500 for a 20 year perspective. The chart shows three massive tops in 2000, 2007, and 2015. I have circled the “over-bought” conditions shown in three technical indicators at the bottom. Note that all three have “rolled over” as they did in 1999-2000, and 2007. Perhaps the final peak has occurred or perhaps it is still a few months away, but regardless it is a time for caution.

Bill Bonner has written about crash conditions and specifics surrounding the 2008 crash, here and here. Regarding September 15, 2008 he quoted

Representative Paul Kanjorski of the 11^th congressional district of Pennsylvania:

“The Treasury opened up its window to help and pumped $105 billion into the system. And it quickly realized it could not stem the tide.

We were having an electronic run on the banks. They decided to close down the operation… to close down the money accounts. […]

If they had not done so, in their estimation, by 2 p.m. that day $5.5 trillion would have been withdrawn. That would have collapsed the US economy. Within 24 hours, the world economy would have collapsed.

We talked at that time about what would have happened. It would have been the end of our economic and political system as we know it.

People who say we would have gone back to the 16th century were being optimistic.”

CONCLUSIONS:

Our financial system has titanic problems, leverage and debt worse than 2008, and is vulnerable to a crash. Large icebergs lie ahead and I suspect that our financial ship has already been struck by several – crude oil price collapse, dollar parabolic rally, Greek exit from the Euro, and escalating war in the Ukraine. Ten minutes after the RMS Titanic struck the iceberg and began filling with water, the “party was still on” for almost all of the passengers on the Titanic. Less than three hours later the “unsinkable” Titanic was gone.

Over 100 years later some items have been recovered from the Titanic. Three items that survived the icy depths were diamonds, gold, and silver.

Repeat: Lives were lost, paper stock certificates were gone, bonds did not survive, dollar bills were destroyed, but gold and silver endured the sinking of the Titanic over a century ago.

Are you prepared for the possibility of a titanic failure in our financial system?

Gary Christenson

The Deviant Investor

GEChristenson.com

The markets have been very volatile. This has led to many questions and the most frequently asked questions follow…

Q. We’re hearing a lot about deflation, but how bad is it?

A. Currently, it’s intensifying. Inflation is declining around the world and it’s gone negative (deflation) in the Euro area and most recently in the U.S. (see Chart 1).

The central banks are fighting these forces with quantitative easing (QE) economic stimulus programs and negative

interest rates to help boost their economies and get inflation up to at least 2%.

At this point, the biggest danger would be a deflationary downward spiral, which is what everyone wants to avoid.

Here’s the bottom line…

As interest rates fall, it becomes more attractive to borrow rather than save.

So central banks are hoping that banks will lend more money to consumers who will spend, as opposed to just holding the money in their bank reserves. That’s primarily why the velocity of money has been falling.

The money created via QE programs has been sitting in banks but it needs to get out there and circulate. That’s the main reason why inflation has been declining.

That will also help turn the deflationary pressures around and get inflation to finally pick up. It’s not happening yet, but hopefully it will.

Q. What are the chances of another economic crisis?

A. Based on the fact that the stock market is still bullish, despite its recent decline, and it tends to lead, the economy should continue to plug along in the months ahead. But the global economic foundation is not healthy.

The biggest problem is debt and we believe it’s passed the tipping point. That is, it’s become a real drag on the global economies.

In 2007, for instance, world debt was $142 trillion. In 2014, it had soared to $199. That’s a 40% increase in seven years.

So nothing has really changed since the last big recession. In fact, it’s gotten worse. There has been no deleveraging and debt is much bigger than the world economy can handle.

Many feel this will lead to another crisis or a collapse, and it’s indeed a possibility. Remember, during the last crisis in 2007-08 the world was taken to the brink.

Every major U.S. bank would have failed if the Fed hadn’t intervened. And something along these lines could happen again.

Debt is a Deflator

Debt, for instance, is definitely keeping a lid on global growth. In the U.S., average annual economic growth has only been 1.2% over the past eight years. And that’s the best it could do after years of QE and super low interest rates.

Plus, median wealth for over half of the people has also dropped 40% since the last recession.

The rich, however, are getting richer via assets that’re rising.

So despite the good economic news you keep hearing about, you can see that the underlying economic foundation is on thin ice.

Q. How will this affect gold?

A. Gold prices fell further, hitting an almost four month low, quickly approaching its November lows. The soaring dollar and expectations of higher U.S. interest rates have pushed gold to the back seat.

GOLD: 2nd in currency ranking

Low interest rates are bullish for gold because gold is then not competing with the currencies. And with most major countries dealing with low to negative rates, gold moves up in the currency ranking.

And indeed it has. Gold, as the ultimate currency, is only second to the U.S. dollar in terms of major currency strength. But the soaring fast paced dollar rise is now causing turmoil in the currency market.

This is now very interesting.

It almost seems unreal for investors to think the U.S. will raise rates when the dollar is soaring. It already has the highest rates in the major countries.

But anyway, at some point coming up pretty quick, the dollar rise will be stemmed, either by intervention or exhaustion.

And when that happens, a dollar decline will give gold a boost. To think that gold did not hit new lows near $1143 already during the dollar rise, shows its underlying, subtle strength.

Gold appears very weak in terms of dollars and so many people now are writing off the goldbugs are just irrelevant as if they were the people who refused to adopt the Gregorian Calendar which made January 1st day one rather than April 1st for the start of every year. Their prejudice against the Pope led people to call them “April Fools” for celebrating New Years on April 1st rather than January 1st.

Yet when we look at our energy model on gold in dollars, it still shows that we are in positive territory, not negative yet. So the collapse to our targets may indeed wait until the timing on the Benchmarks has coming into play as we laid out in the 2014 International Precious Metals Outlook report. The Weekly Bearish Reversal is 11340 and resistance starts at 1171 with support at 1056 for right now.

Now, let us look at gold in Euros. Here we see a spike rally on our energy models and this is warning that gold is topping out in Euros as it seems to flounder in dollars. So caution is still advised here. Once the Euro reaches a temporary bottom, we may then see gold turn back down in Euros rather hard. Here we have Weekly Bearish Reversals at 972, 966, and 958. We are currently trading at 1097 in Euros ($1151 and 1.0490).

Our computer is monitoring everything in every currency on a global basis. It is hard to even say how man y combinations are being considered. What I can say is this is far beyond what any human is capable of doing. We are entering a new era where analysis will only be possible by self-aware systems for the variables are mind-numbing. AND ALL OF THAT DEPENDS UPON LEARNING. This is why we need databases extending back thousands of years. Trying to build self-aware systems with data even just a 100 years in depth is like trying to claim Global Warming is caused by man since they dare not look past 1900 to see if there ever were previous rapid climates changes. You need the full range of data – not just pieces.

….more from Martin Armstrong:

Governments Are Broke Now they Are Turning People Against People