Both the Canadian and US stock markets are closed today. Futures trading have shortened mixed hours also.  Being a holiday and limited trading there is no video this morning.

Taking a look at the futures market we can see trading up another 1.35% today which is great to see. So far out silver position is up over 12% in just a few trading sessions.

View Recent Exclusive Silver Report: http://www.silver-phoenix500.com/article/silver-global-price-forecast-sterling-opportunity

Natural gas is no fire once again… up nearly 5% again today and is now testing the recent spike highs in price in which we shorted earlier this month for a net 20+% profit in only a few days. Nat gas actually looks ready to rally even more this time so I am not looking to short it unless we get a picture perfect setup again.

The SP500 (broad market) continues to claw it’s way higher and its trading up 0.25% this morning. We are going to leave the stock market alone until we get a correction in price, then we will review the charts for a possible trade setup.

On different note, today we are excited to announce the opening of doors to our automated trading system for investors. Many of you are already on the waiting list as we have a limited amount of client seats available to have the system traded automatically in your brokerage account and it is first come first serve. Keep in mind today is a holiday with brokers and services are running on a skeleton crew. If you have not taken a look at our automated trading system you can review all the details here: www.AlgoTrades.net

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Your cycle of war seems to be truly amazing. It was a fascinating read. My question is this. I also understand that 911 took place precisely on the day of your model. Besides your cycle of war predicting World War I and II to the day, has your Pi conjunction that targeted 911 ever taken place like that before in history?

Thank you

Just curious.

ANSWER: Shockingly, many times. Even going back into ancient times, the first of the three wars against the Jews also began on that same Pitarget in Wave 707 (starting the Economic Confidence Model at 6000BC). You have to dive into history without a biased perspective and a completely open mind for whatever you were taught in school was most likely slanted, wrong, or fictional. I prefer contemporary accounts rather than modern interpretation that judges the past by current standards. This is like naming Philadelphia after the Greek term Philadelphos meaning“brotherly love” and viewing it through Christian eyes when in fact in ancient times it meant someone who married their sister.

Take this period and the stories that Nero played the fiddle while Rome burned. Aside from the historical fact that a fiddle was not invented for about 100 years after Nero, the true events are a completely different picture of Nero than the propaganda that has survived. Nonetheless, no matter how incorrect that propaganda was back then put out by the people he was attacking for their corruption in government, the image of this propaganda still survives to this day. (the same is true with propaganda about the Knights Templar to justify the confiscation of assets by Philip IV of France).

Nero was doing battle against the Senate and had unleashed a major reform effort to get rid of corruption. Unlike today, nobody was too big to jail. He cut taxes eliminating a corrupt indirect tax that was much like the European VAT tax today. He allowed servants AND slaves to sue their master if they violated their rights, and he threw even governors in prison for corruption. The propaganda war waged against Nero succeeded. His reputation was tarnish and the corruption won just as there is the Cato Institute today named wrongly after the very man who created the civil war and headed the corrupt oligarchy in the Senate that Julius Caesar fought against.

The bureaucracy was out to destroy Nero to maintain their corrupt ways. You have to realize that this too was a tax revolt during a massive economic decline. You can imagine if more than half of Rome was destroyed (only 4 out of 14 districts were untouched) unemployment soared and businesses were wiped out. Nero followed the VERY SAMEKeynesian model back then – embarked on a major public works project to create employment just as was done during the Great Depression with the WPA. Nero debased the currency to try to restart the economy by increasing the money supply – ancient version of Quantitative Easing. FDR also devalued the dollar in 1934 for the same reasons.

I have said it countless times – history repeats because human nature does the same thing over and over again expecting to achieve a different result and we are TOO STUPID to consult history to ever just ask a common sense question – Has anyone tried this before and what was the result? History remains as a catalogue of solutions if we dare to ever read it objectively.

Act 3, Scene 1, line 273 of William Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar: “Cry ‘Havoc!’, and let slip the dogs of war”. It would be nice if we could learn from history. The vast majority of revolts were caused by raising taxes. No matter how loud I scream, the dogs of war have been unleashed. We are dealing with fate’s judgment.

also:

Anti-Semitic and Pro-Nazi Activities Rising

Russia to Expand 2017.786

Bahrain Protest Brings out 10′s of Thousands

Almost everyone thinks gold has bottomed. And almost everyone also thinks I’ve been dead wrong on gold.

I wish I were wrong. I wish gold has bottomed. But there is nothing, and I mean nothing, that convinces me that my models on gold are wrong. Only in the very short-term.

Keep in mind my models on gold have never missed one single major turning point since 1978. Not one.

There’s always a first time for everything, so with that in mind, I have been studiously watching the gold market this year — more than ever before — fully open to the idea that I could be wrong.

But as I just said, I have yet to be convinced that my models are wrong.

First, and foremost, the January low that did not happen merely means the gold market is undergoing a “cycle inversion” — one that pushes the final low off to the next important cyclic period for a major low, which is May.

Second, no major buy signals have yet been hit in gold during this cyclic rally inversion.

The most important of those buy signals are a weekly close above $1,320.40 followed by a weekly close above $1,449.50.

We are approaching the $1,320 level now. If gold closes above it on a Friday basis, you can expect a further rally. But I doubt very much gold can close above $1,449.50.

Third, the trading pattern of gold’s recent rally is not that bullish. In Elliott Wave terms, which I often use as an additional tool, gold is in a fourth wave upward correction, one that is accompanied by declining trading volume.

You can see it in this chart. Notice the sloppy upward slopes of the recent rally. It’s choppy, characteristic of a correction.

At the bottom of the chart, notice how the volume of trade has been declining. That, too, is characteristic of a bounce and not the start of something much bigger.

Also note the Fibonacci extensions I have drawn on the chart for you. If gold’s rally ends near its current level — an “e” wave of a fourth wave upward correction — then the next leg down, the fifth wave, would find gold falling to at least $1,062.50, and more likely, even lower, to about the $967 level.

I find it fascinating that on my system models I have major support and sell signals at the $1,059 and $962 levels.

Derived from an entirely different model that has nothing to do with Elliott Wave Theory — when the two point to the same conclusions and support, I consider it a kind of double confirmation that my models are going to end up being right.

Fourth, the double bottom that’s been made in gold, at $1,180.81 last June and $1,184.50 on Dec. 31, are way too close together in terms of price, to hold.

Double-bottoms are a misnomer. They almost always give birth to a temporary rally, but then the market turns south again and demolishes the double-bottom, spiking to substantial new lows.

I believe the same thing is going to happen to the June/December 2013 double-bottom in gold (and silver as well).

There are many more reasons I believe the current rally is nothing more than a correction and that new lows are likely ahead, for both gold and silver.

But right now, I want to outline the two main scenarios for gold going forward.

Scenario A: Gold’s rally stalls at current levels or slightly higher, then it resumes its downtrend. That’s the scenario right now according to my models. New lows will then be seen by May, and the bear market will finally be over.

Scenario B: I am dead wrong and gold continues higher, taking out the $1,320 level and then moves even higher, taking out $1,449.

In this scenario, gold would still retrace a very large part of its first wave up and decline back to the mid or low $1,200 area before resuming its new bull market.

In other words, even if I am dead wrong, we would have a chance to get on board at much lower levels.

What about any further rally from current levels? Should you get in now? That’s up to you. I can only tell you what I am personally doing and recommending. The answer is no.

I prefer to buy gold, or any market for that matter, when my models give me a 90 percent probability that the bottom is in. Right now, those models are saying that there is less than a 25 percent chance we have seen the bottom.

What about mining shares? Or silver, platinum and palladium?

Same applies. I do not believe any of them have bottomed.

I know it’s tough to watch gold go up and not participate. It’s tough for me too. But discipline and patience is key. And in the rare event that I’m wrong, keep in mind that …

One, you will still get a chance to get on board during a major pullback. And …

Two, gold is going much higher over the next few years, to over $5,000 an ounce. So if you miss a $100 or $150 move, it’s no big deal. It’s always far better to buy when the odds are on your side.

Best wishes,

Larry