Timing & trends

The Skeptical Investor – January Update

Posted by Mark Jasayko

on Monday, 6 January 2014 17:29

Produced by McIver Wealth Management Consulting Group

Mark Jasayko, CFA,MBA, Portfolio Manager with McIver Wealth Management of Richardson GMP in Vancouver.

www.McIverWealth.com

Pre-opening Comments for Monday January 6th

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures gained 3 points in pre-opening trade.

PetsMart fell $1.02 to $70.77 following a downgrade by Deutsche Bank from Hold to Sell. Target was reduced from $73 to $65.

Twitter fell $3.75 to $65.25 after Morgan Stanley and CRT Capital downgraded the stock.

Wendy’s fell $0.18 to $8.50 after Janney Capital downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral.

Apple dropped $1.98 to $539.00 after Standpoints Research downgraded the stock from Hold to Sell.

Goldman Sachs has taken a more positive stance on U.S. solar stocks. First Solar (FSLR) was upgraded from Sell to Buy. Target was increased from $45 to $62. SolarCity (SCTY) was upgraded from Neutral to Conviction Buy. Target was raised from $65 to $80.

Halliburton (HAL $50.13) is expected to open higher after Wells Fargo upgraded the stock from Market Perform to Outperform.

EquityClock.com Daily Market Letter

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2014/01/06/stock-market-outlook-for-january-6-2014/

Economic News This Week

November Factory Orders to be released at 10:00 AM EST on Monday are expected to increase 1.7% versus a decline of 0.9% in October.

December ISM Services to be released at 10:00 AM EST on Monday is expected to increase to 54.6 from 53.9 in November.

November U.S. Trade Deficit to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Tuesday is expected to slip to $40.4 billion from $40.6 billion in October.

November Canadian Merchandise Trade Balance to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Tuesday is expected to slip to a $200 million deficit from a surplus of $100 million

December ADP Employment Change Report to be released at 8:15 AM EST on Wednesday is expected to slip to 203,000 from 215,000 in November.

FOMC Minutes from the December 18th meeting are to be released at 2:00 PM EST on Wednesday

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday are expected to increase to 340,000 from 339,000 last week.

December U.S. Non-farm Payrolls to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday are expected to slip to 197,000 from 203,000 in November. December Private Non-farm Payrolls are expected to increase to 198,000 from 196,000 in November. December U.S. Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged from November at 7.0%. December Hourly Earnings are expected to increase 0.2% versus a gain of 0.2% in November.

Canadian December Net Change in Employment to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday is expected to increase 13,100 versus a gain of 21,600 in November. The Canadian December Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged from November at 6.9%.

November Wholesale Inventories to be released at 10:00 AM on Friday are expected to increase 0.2% versus a gain of 1.4% in October.

To view individual charts go HERE

Time to buy out-of-favor ETFs for 2014?

Posted by David Banister via Resource Investor

on Friday, 3 January 2014 10:44

The best time to buy cheap is when you are afraid to bring up your ideas around the water cooler at work for fear of the peer laughter.  Our work centers on looking for oversold conditions and crowd behavioral anomalies that can give us better low-risk entries with good upside potential. A combination of fundamentals and technicals, combined with Elliott Wave Theory patterns can lead to nice profits with low risk.

For just a few quick ideas that would make sense in this area, we point out three ETFs that you could look at entering now as they are way out of favor and very oversold.

Gold Stocks: GDXJ

The Junior Miners index is high-risk, high-reward. However, if you time the entry right at the opportune moment the upside is very high with low downside risk.  With GOLD out of favor, we have been pounding the table the last 10 days or so that there are only 4-5 weeks left to buy quality miner names. Instead of picking through them one at a time, you can pick up the high beta play GDJX ETF.

chart1

….read page 2 HERE

Weak Chinese Manufacturing

Posted by Mark Jasayko, CFA, Portfolio Manager

on Thursday, 2 January 2014 22:12

McIver Wealth Management Consulting Group / Richardson GMP Limited
Global Manufacturing Including China

Yesterday it was announced that China’s manufacturing for December came in below expectations. However, this shouldn’t be too much of a surprise as Chinese manufacturing has been flailing away for about three years now.

As the chart above shows, Chinese manufacturing was declining about three years ago and then for the last two has been skidding along the breakeven line that separates economic expansion and contraction.

What is really astounding is that this has occurred during massive Quantitative Easing in the U.S. which spills over its borders and floods the world’s economy with liquidity. Also, over this period, China has been extremely loose with credit.

Most people now conclude that China is an important component of the global economic engine. If U.S. Quantitative Easing combined with lax lending standards in China can’t spark growth in Chinese manufacturing, then what will?

The opinions expressed in this report are the opinions of the author and readers should not assume they reflect the opinions or recommendations of Richardson GMP Limited or its affiliates. Assumptions, opinions and estimates constitute the author’s judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. We do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of this material, and it should not be relied upon as such. Before acting on any recommendation, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. 

Richardson GMP Limited, Member Canadian Investor Protection Fund.

Richardson is a trade-mark of James Richardson & Sons, Limited. GMP is a registered trade-mark of GMP Securities L.P. Both used under license by Richardson GMP Limited.

The Todd Market Forecast

Posted by Stephen Todd: The Todd Market Forecast

on Wednesday, 1 January 2014 14:48

Todd Market Forecast for Tuesday December 31, 2013

Available Mon- Friday after 6:00 P.M. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific.

DOW                        + 72 on 750 net advances

NASDAQ COMP           +22 on 450 net declines

SHORT TERM TREND                Bullish

INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND     Bullish    

  STOCKS:  Not much to say still again. Very light volume with portfolio adjustments and seasonality the dominant considerations.

       We’re looking for more strength into the close on Friday.

 GOLD:  Gold was up $1. It was down as much as $22 before staging a solid comeback.  

CHART: It’s well known that hedge funds, as a group, managed to vastly underperform the market in 2013. As a matter of fact, these “pros” have underperformed for years. To be fair, they were down much less in 2008 than the market averages. But, they charge 2% and also take as much as 20% of the profits.

706

TORONTO EXCHANGE:  Toronto was up 40.                         

S&P\TSX Venture Comp: The Venture Comp was up 11.                                                                

BONDS: Bonds moved down again.                                                                                                                           

THE REST: The dollar rebounded mildly. Silver and crude oil were lower. Copper managed an up session.                                                                     

BOTTOM LINE:  

Our intermediate term systems are on a buy signal.