Timing & trends

……Bull Market Far From Over

Investment guru gives his latest views on commodities, including gold and oil.

When Jim Rogers talks, investors listen. Rogers may be the world’s best-known commodity investor, with his Rogers International Commodity Index and best-selling books, including “Hot Commodities.” HAI Managing Editor Sumit Roy spoke this week with Rogers from his home in Singapore about commodities, including whether he’s ready to buy gold after the recent plunge in prices.

HardAssetsInvestor:A lot of investment banks have recently called an end to the commodities supercycle that began more than a decade ago. Do you think they’re wrong?

Jim Rogers: I’m delighted to hear that. Bull markets climb a wall of worry. I’m not quite sure where the supply is coming from that would cause the bull market to end. Maybe they know something I don’t. But when you look back at the stock bull market from 1982 to 2000, stocks collapsed in 1987, ’89, ’90, ’94, ’97, ’98. And every time, people said the bull market is over. But it wasn’t. This bull market in commodities will definitely come to an end someday. But someday is not here yet.

HAI: What signs do you look for to determine when the bull market is close to ending or has ended?

Rogers: Well, when there’s massive new supply coming on stream, then we’ll have the end of the bull market. But the world has consumed more agriculture products than it has produced for a decade now. But worse than that, we’re running out of farmers. The average age of farmers in America is 58; in Japan, it’s 66. Many of the industrial metals are now below the cost of production.

And nearly everybody has cut back dramatically on their expansion plans and investment plans. Oil reserves are declining pretty steadily around the world. We do have shale oil, which has caused a rise in supply. But that’s only in the U.S; the rest of the world has declined. Moreover, it remains to be seen how long the oil boom in the U.S. will continue.

HAI: All the talk recently has been about the recent plunge in gold. You’ve been saying, for a long time now— even when prices were hitting record highs—that you weren’t going to buy until prices corrected to $1,200. Are you still planning on buying there?

Rogers: Yes, if it gets there. I bought more today, as a matter of fact. I bought a little bit, not much, over the last few days in case this was the bottom. I would not be surprised if there’s another chance to buy lower later on, but I’m buying and I own it. I haven’t sold any.

HAI: How do you determine whether gold is a good value or not? What has to happen for you to get completely out of gold and stay out?

Rogers: All these things will end in a bubble some day. Long bull markets always end in a bubble or mania before it’s over with. And when there’s a bubble in gold, I hope I’m smart enough to get out. We haven’t seen a bubble yet. Until recently, if you went around any U.S. city, you would see signs outside many jewelry stores saying “We buy gold.” And the American people line up to sell gold. Later there’ll be signs there saying, “We sell gold,” and people will be lining up to buy it in big ways. That hasn’t happened yet.

……read more HERE

 

TIMING GOLD.

Posted by Black Swan Capital

on Friday, 21 June 2013 13:34

A friend called me up a couple weeks ago. He wanted to know when would be a good time to buy some gold coins.

I told him to call someone else.

Actually, I didn’t. But I did tell him to consider waiting. I thought gold could go significantly lower.

Gold started that “significantly lower” move this week. So my advice wasn’t too bad in the grand scheme of things. 

But Elliott Wave’s was better.

Earlier this week — on Monday, actually — Elliott Wave International released a short-term update to their subscribers. I’ll let them explain:

             elliott wave logo

Gold and Silver: A Great Day to be a Bear 

Elliott wave analysis is the blade-proof glove with which “to catch a falling knife”
By Elliott Wave International

In the wee morning hours before dawn on Thursday, June 20, the precious metals’ rooster crowed, “Cock-a-doodle-DOH!” First, gold prices plummeted 4% then 5% then 6% below $1300 per ounce to their lowest level in nearly three years. Soon, silver followed in an even steeper drop below $20. Read more.

Is Elliott Wave International suggesting, with their falling knife subtitle, that it’s time to buy gold?

I guess you’ll have to read to find out. But I know that other gold watchers are open to an even deeper dip — into the $1,100 range if gold can’t stabilize soon.

Regardless, you have to wonder if we are not nearing the end of gold’s downside:

062113 gold

Clearly, gold needed a real correction after what everyone notes as 12 years in a solid bull market. It would seem that the latest surge lower is in reaction to interest rate expectations. (Remember: gold doesn’t offer yield, which makes it less appealing in an environment of rising interest rates.)

But are expectations for rising interest rates — courtesy of the collapse we’ve seen in Treasury prices lately — well founded?

As Elliott Wave touches on, Ben Bernanke gave no obvious indication of a concrete change in policy after this week’s FOMC meeting. There has been no change to bond or MBS purchases. And there certainly has been no indication of when an interest rate hike will happen (except for Fed Funds Futures indicating traders now expect the first rate hike will come in January 2014 instead of January 2015.)

So might this latest interest rate chaos wind down soon?

It’s possible. 

I don’t claim to have blade-proof gloves, but if Treasuries at least stabilize around current levels (or even rally, a scenario Jack discussed recently) and the risk-off mood takes US stocks on a much-overdue and deeper-than-expected correction, and other assets continue to flounder, then maybe gold comes back into favor a bit.

062113 30yr bond

That could mean the yellow metal lays a foundation that provides a rallying point once investors calm down. Because after this sell-off finishes, central bank policy will not have changed in any way that substantially undermines the low-interest rate status quo.

And it won’t, if global central banks have anything to say about it. The only real obstacle is if the market generates financial system risks of its own that policy accommodation can’t manipulate in the near-term.

-JR Crooks

blackswan get serious logo

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On Markets, Bernanke & The Fed

Posted by Peter Grandich - Grandich.com

on Friday, 21 June 2013 2:34

After watching, listening and reading all the analogies of the what, why and who caused the markets to do what they did, I concluded there’s only one truly honest response to all of it. 

I may be a half-famous whiz kid or a wanna-be or maybe even a never was, but after 30 years in and around the financial arena, I long ago realized there are only two types of commentators:

1-      Those who say what they think; or

2-      Those who say what they think you want to hear and it sells

The financial service industry is full of #2s and looks to get rid of any individuals who try honestly to be #1s. I’ve prided myself for the last half of my career to be a #1 no matter how much “number two” gets throw at me.

When the dust settles and it finally comes to light how bad America is economically, socially, politically and spiritually, this will become the song of what’s left of us who worked hard and tried to do the right thing. Unfortunately, what may be played right after that is this.

U.S. Stock Market – Long ago I said trying to trade markets was futile and only focus on making (at best) educated guesses. I feel very good about my guessing over three decades and my latest suggestion that it ran out of room to the upside appears to be correct. I do think the “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” crowd won’t take this lying down as they were all over TOUT-TV and elsewhere, urging the flock to stay in line. As previously noted, stocks are the lesser of two evils when compared to bonds.

Screen shot 2013-06-20 at 7.28.33 PM

U.S. Bonds – Months, if not a year or two worth of gains evaporated for those who remained in bonds. While some consolidation and countertrend rallies are expected, the worse investment for the next decade remains status quo. I never heard any bond bull explain to me when the 10-yr. was around 1.75% how bonds couldn’t fall if the FED stopped being 60%-75% or so of all bond purchases. Keep this in mind as a three decade bull market in bonds ends.

Screen shot 2013-06-20 at 7.30.03 PM

U.S. Dollar – It was very oversold going into this FED announcement and given what happened elsewhere, the bounce has been anemic so far. It would come as no surprise by as early as next week and no later than July 4th that it has given up all the gains made off the Fed news and then some.

Screen shot 2013-06-20 at 7.29.25 PM

 

…….more on metals & the Mining Shares HERE

Gold and Gold Stocks, Post FOMC Update

Posted by Pater Tenebrarum - Acting Man

on Thursday, 20 June 2013 18:32

The Fundamental Backdrop is Still the Same, But …

 

The FOMC statement was once again almost a carbon copy of the last one. The only noteworthy event worth commenting on is that in addition to the hawkish dissenter Esther George, John Bullard dissented because he felt the Fed’s actions are not dovish enough (he’s worried about ‘inflation being too low’ of all things).

Still, it is the market reaction that counts, and nearly all markets except the dollar reacted rather badly to Ben Bernanke’s news conference – even though it actually contained no news. Treasury yields soared, stocks were whacked, and so was gold. When we last wrote about gold and gold stocks we remarked:

Gold-descending-triangle

“Unfortunately the HUI index violated the previously highlighted gap support in Tuesday’s trading, which killed the ‘island reversal’ idea (it did however revive the idea that all upside gaps in the index tend to eventually be closed). It was especially worrisome that this happened with gold relatively stable, i.e., the HUI-gold ratio once again went into the ‘wrong’ direction. Per ample experience that is a sign that gold is set to decline further in the short term (we are always open to surprises on that front, but those are rare).

Gold itself is conspicuous by its utter failure to profit from recent weakness in the US dollar. This is a bearish sign as well.”

,,,,,read more HERE

 

 

3D printing explained: what’s all the fuss about?

Posted by Neil Mohr - Tech Radar

on Wednesday, 19 June 2013 15:13

IN DEPTH How to print your own action figure or body par

print-580-75It’s rare that a truly new technology comes along, promising to revolutionise the world. Just as the printing press and spinning jenny empowered cottage industries with the ability to spread knowledge and manufacture goods, 3D printers promise to enable a next-generation industrial revolution of home-made and customised products.

In the industrial world, 3D printing is known as Additive Layer manufacturing, which should give you a hint as to how the process works. Thin layer after layer of material is built up, in a way that means a final fully-formed widget, hip bone, gun or part is produced.

It contrasts with traditional machine lathing, which has garnered the name Subtractive manufacturing, because material is removed to make a final part.

How to print in 3D

So how can you get started with 3D printing to become part of the revolution? The short and sweet answer is you’ll need a 3D printer, suitable material for that printer, a 3D model to print and suitable software to do just that. Some of the big names in 3D printing are MakerBot, Up! Plus, Afinia and the most affordable RepRap design.

The MakerBot Replicator 2 is one of the best known 3D printers on the market, with a price tag of £1,800 / US$2,200 / AU$2,685, while 1kg (2.4lbs) of print filament costs around £52 / US$48 / AU$66. The MakerBot Replicator 2 has a print layer resolution of 0.1mm or 256dpi.

How to print in 3D

So how can you get started with 3D printing to become part of the revolution? The short and sweet answer is you’ll need a 3D printer, suitable material for that printer, a 3D model to print and suitable software to do just that. Some of the big names in 3D printing are MakerBot, Up! Plus, Afinia and the most affordable RepRap design.

…..read more HERE