Timing & trends

Russell & Rogers on The Current Situation

With S&P 500 is hitting new highs, and gold and silver are sitting roughly at two-year lows, it’s ususally good to listen to what these two old guy’s have to say: 

 

Richard Russell- Gold is the Safest CurrencyRichard Russell on May 17, 2013:

“The CPI is manipulated, and I believe gold is being manipulated as well. The Fed’s QE4ever is inflating everything — school tuition, haircuts, food, gas, insurance, medicine. They’ve already “rearranged” the CPI, so what’s left for them to do to keep us from knowing about inflation? Oh yes, it’s gold, so c’mon, Bernanke, keep the lid on gold. Slam it in after-market trading in the thin paper-gold markets of the night.

I promise you, when the true forces of inflation finally break loose, the Fed won’t be able to disguise what they’ve wrought. When the true forces break out — it will be a national disgrace and an emergency. ‘Then you will know the truth, and the truth will set you free.’ The rest of this year should be something to behold.”

jim-rogers-333-300x250Jim Rogers to MoneyNews on May 19, 2013:

“Right now, we have a very artificial situation. You have the central bank in America printing staggering amounts of money,” he tells Newsmax TV in an exclusive interview.

“There’s this gigantic artificial flow of money floating into our economy, and this is going to end badly because it is artificial.”

“It seems that Mr. Bernanke may be leaving in a few months,” Rogers says. “I guess he wants to get out before he has to deal with the hangover or the aftermath.” Bernanke’s term ends Jan. 31, 2014, and the consensus opinion is that he doesn’t want to serve another.

But as far as the Fed’s easing tactics are concerned, Rogers doesn’t see a smooth conclusion on the horizon.

“I don’t know how long it will last,” Rogers says. “I don’t see how it can last much more beyond this year.”

 

Why “The Dollar Will Soar”

EU is stealing bank accts  & France outlawed trading gold, er….that’s why

Long Live the Dollar

note

If anyone wants to know why the dollar will soar to new highs, just stop and look at Europe. The gold promoters will claim the bank crisis will make gold soar. But the dollar will soar. France is out to shut down gold sales and has outlawed buying or selling gold for cash. They are tracking every ounce. The smart Europeans will move their cash to the USA before they can’t get out or go to Asia maybe better. But the bottom line – it is the dollar that is becoming the ONLY game in town.

The banking crisis in Europe is worse that the US ever was. The US was a trading loss, this is a systemic failure that is more than $1 trillion in bad loans when the USA was $700 billion. France wants total seizure of assets to secure socialism. This is like cutting off your head because you have a headache. The denials of the Cyprus solution would ever be applied to the EU have faded into the night. The politicians cannot see for an instant what they are doing to the world economy. When I said we have a Crisis in Democracy – this was not hype. The EU will seize bank deposits to bailout the banks. The governments are unwilling to put in that money because they cannot sell it to the people. Germans are not interested in bailing out the banks in Italy or Spain.

A slowdown in British inflation sent sterling to a 7-week low on the view it could give the Bank of England more leeway to support the UK economy, and the yen lost ground after a Japanese minister rowed back on remarks suggesting the currency had weakened enough.

The Dollar is the Prettiest of the Four Ugly Sisters – Europe, UK, Japan & USA

Long Live the Dollar

http://translate.google.de/translate?sl=de&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=de&ie=UTF-8&eotf=1&u=http://www.mmnews.de/index.php/wirtschaft/13068-eu-plant-sparer-enteignung-ab-2016

Ed Note: 

Nasa Printing Pizza! 3D Jet Parts 15% Fuel Efficient

3D Printing! NASA funding a 3D food printer, and it’ll start with  pizza

Screen shot 2013-05-22 at 6.23.10 AMAlso, CFM International, the world’s largest manufacturer of commercial airline engines, is using some 3D-printed components to help improve the fuel efficiency of its new line of jet engines by 15 percent. Earlier this month, the company — which is co-owned by GE and French aerospace giant Snecma — announced that it had decided on the final configuration of parts that are going into its new line of LEAP-1B engines for use in the Boeing 737 MAX commercial jets. So far, there have been 1,185 orders for planes with the new engine, and CFM said it expects to complete its first test by the middle of 2014.

The LEAP-1B is just one of a lineup of three different LEAP engines: The LEAP-1A is the larger, more powerful version and the LEAP-1C is the smallest of the line. But all three use 3D-printed parts, or more accurately, parts sintered of metal powders out by a laser, including valves and aircraft gaskets. By 2020, GE predicts that up to 10,000 componentsinside a jet engine will all be manufactured via similar means. GE just acquired some 3D-printing companies to help it along this process late last year, so expect the company’s dreams of more fuel-efficient aircraft to really take flight in later years.

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IMPORTANT: THE ONGOING GOLD AND SILVER CRASH

I hope you’ve been following my forecasts for the precious metals. If not, here’s a brief summary of some of the major opportunities you’ve missed …

Gold was trading at the $255 to $265 level. That’s when I turned bullish on gold as the co-editor of Safe Money Report. My recommendation to subscribers: Load up on gold bullion and mining shares. Gold began an 11-year bull market.

– September 2008: Gold plunges in the middle of the real estate crisis. Most analysts were convinced it was the end of gold’s bull market. Not me. I stood pat and told my subscribers to buy into the selling panic and increase their allocation to gold from 15 percent of their portfolios to a full 25 percent. Gold explodes higher, soaring to well over $1,000 an ounce.

–  September 7, 2011: Gold hits a record high of $1,920 an ounce. Less than two weeks later …

–  September 18, 2011: In Real Wealth Report issue #89 and in my columns inUncommon Wisdom, I proclaim the high in gold is in and that the yellow metal is entering an interim bear market.

11 days after gold’s record high, I give Real Wealth Report subscribers specific recommendations to hedge their gold holdings. Gold plunges almost $200 an ounce.

Screen shot 2013-05-21 at 7.54.03 AM–  October and December 2011: I instructReal Wealth Report subscribers to add to their gold hedges and exit ALL mining shares. Gold plunges anew.

– February 2013: George Soros DUMPS half his gold holdings. Unlike Real Wealth Reportsubscribers, who already knew gold was in an interim bear market and who hedged their gold, measured from gold’s record high — Soros’ gold holdings lose roughly 29 percent of their value.

–  April 12, 2013: Goldman Sachs turns bearish gold. Gold has already lost more than $350 from its record high, or 18 percent.

Goldman turns bullish again after mid-April’s devastating gold rout. I say no: Gold is set to fall more.

–  April 15, 2013: While clinging desperately to their gold, giant gold investors John Paulson and David Einhorn are hit with $640 million in losses.

You can see the dates and all of the twists and turns in gold as well as my forecasts in this chart below. Since I initially forecast gold’s interim bear market way back on September 18, 2011, gold has plunged more than 28 percent while the average mining share has lost more than twice that, a whopping 59.8 percent.

Chart1

Click for larger version

Gold’s Bear Market Is Not Over!

Just look at last week’s action. After a failed rally attempt, gold plunged anew. As I pen this issue, gold is sitting on the next level of support at $1,368. Once that gives way — and it will — gold is going to take another nosedive.

Silver too is getting crushed again. Since its April 26 high of $24.35, silver has lost another 9.2 percent as I pen this issue. All told, silver has plunged an incredible 55.7 percent since its high on April 21, 2011.

Why Are These Oh-So Precious Metals

Collapsing When All Is Not Well with the World?

There are several reasons. And I’ve written about them numerous times. But here are the two chief …

First, from a cyclical and technical perspective, it’s just not time yet for their interim bear markets to come to an end. Nor is it time for the next phase of their long-term bull markets to reemerge.

I cannot give you the precise timing. That will depend upon my trading models and what they show. The models are fluid, and they take into consideration a host of variables and factors.

Second, just as I’ve also been forecasting, deflation has the upper hand right now. Wholesale prices are plunging, as are nearly all measures of inflation.

Most importantly, however, is the severe rot that is infecting Europe. France is now back in recession. Spain is still in trouble. So is Italy. Even Germany is starting to wallow now.

On top of it all are the insane politicians in Europe who insist on raising taxes and implementing austerity measures. Even worse, there’s now increasing talk that the “bail-in” that occurred in Cyprus — the confiscation of uninsured depositors’ money — will be used as a solution when banks in other European countries fail.

All this, and more, is sending European money into hiding. But not much of it is finding its way into gold and silver.

Instead, most of that money is going largely into cash, which is boosting the value of the U.S. dollar quite dramatically, putting additional downside pressure on the precious metals.

For now, if you’re hedged up in gold and silver or speculating on their downside potential, per my suggestions in the March 4 and April 3 Money and Marketscolumns to buy the ProShares UltraShort Gold (GLL) and the ProShares UltraShort Silver (ZSL) — then simply hold those positions. As I pen this column, they are up 25.4 percent and 46.8 percent, respectively.

Also hold the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP), which I also suggested you consider buying in the aforementioned columns. The dollar is about to explode higher again as the euro is on the verge of collapsing.

Best wishes,

Larry

P.S. If you missed any of the above opportunities, then you also missed many more in other markets that I also cover in detail in my Real Wealth Report. So why not become a member now? It’s the best $89 you’ll ever spend on your investments. I guarantee it.Join now by clicking here.

China Bubble or Breakout?

QUESTION:    I’m a reader from China and one of the big fans of you in our country. I want to ask you a question and would be very happy to get your reply. If my memories are correct, you have been a bull of China and praised Chinese leaders for their competence. But in reality, Chinese people are very disapproval of the government, to be more exactly, hate and curse! As you know, aside from problems of severe pollution and food safety,China has a very big housing bubble and the price is well beyond people’s purchasing power. Many young people had to use their parent’s  retirement savings or even borrow the rest from relatives as down payment to buy an apartment so they can get married. On the other hand, most Chinese public servants have many many suites of apartment——to hide their bribery money in many cases. Corruption is widespread in China, everywhere. People are yearning for democracy and election, and not trust one-party politics anymore. Also, many people are expecting a crash of china’s housing market. Sadly enough, they have been expecting for many years but the price just won’t stop rising.

So, what’s your opinion, about china’s politics and housing market? I will be very eager to wait for your answer. Thank you very much.

Yours,

——-

Beijing,China

TankMan-060589ANSWER: Politicians in the USA like to point their collective finger at China for corruption problems while they sanction a legalized system of corruption that ensured the NY bankers will NEVER be prosecuted. Furthermore, in the USA, politicians receive untold millions legally funneled to them by political action committees. The PACs assure that Congress votes the way that those who provide the money want it to. Why is Goldman Sachs above the law? They bought both parties equally. Rubin took charge of the Treasury under Clinton and did away with Glass-Steagall. Paulson took over the Treasury from him and eliminated Lehman and Bear Stearns, but as soon as Goldman’s was getting shorted he outlawed short selling. Nobody in Congress will even investigate Goldman Sachs because they have their hand out under the pretense it is LEGAL.

China should just LEGALIZE the corruption like it is done in all GOOD upstanding Democracies and it will not be an issue regardless what goes on.

….read it all HERE