Timing & trends

Art Cashin: This Could Send Markets ‘Parabolic’

UBS’s Cashin explains why the stocks with the heaviest short are likely to “crumble if they keep moving up.”

 

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Grandich:The Self-Storage Factor

Screen shot 2013-05-18 at 5.14.07 AMOne in 10 U.S. Households rented a storage unit in 2009. That number grew from one in 17 in 1995. 

Self-storage: The Poster Child for America’s Addiction to Excess. ‘

10 Tips to Stop Overspending

 

 

 

Soros buys call options on juniors

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Soros Reports Over $239mm In Gold Positions, Buys $25mm In Call Options On Juniors

In a 13-F release issued by the SEC after market close yesterday, it was reported that Soros Fund Management LLC, founded and chaired by billionaire financier George Soros, significantly increased its gold related holdingsmost notably, through the purchase of over $25 million dollars worth of call options on the GDXJ Junior Gold Miners index.

……read more HERE

 

 

 

Index Funds Beat 99.6% of Managers Over Ten Years

The entire financial management industry is a profit-skimming rentier arrangement.

It may seem uncharitable to note that only .4%–that’s 4/10th of 1%–of mutual fund managers outperform a plain-vanilla S&P 500 index fund over 10 years, but that is being generous: by other measures, it’s an infinitesimal 1/10th of 1%.
 
 
 

According to the folks at the Motley Fool, only ten of the ten thousand actively managed mutual funds available managed to beat the S&P 500 consistently over the course of the past ten years.Consider the following: a quick glance at Yahoo Finance reveals the average expense ratio for growth and income style mutual funds is 1.29%. As a result, approximately $1,883 of every $10,000 invested over the course of ten years will go to the fund company in the form of expenses. Compare that to the Vanguard 500 fund, designed to mirror the S&P 500 index, which boasts an annual expense ratio of only 0.12%, resulting in ten-year compounded expense of $154 for every $10,000 invested.

Frequent contributor B.C. recently screened 24,711 funds on Yahoo Finance’s fund screener and 17,785 funds on the Wall Street Journal’s online screening tool. The results were sobering, to say the least: using a basic set of criteria, the first screen turned up a mere 5 managers who beat the S&P 500 index over five years. Using a slightly different set of criteria, the second screen found 71 funds out of 17,785 outperformed the index over ten years.
 
That’s .4% of managed funds, i.e. an index fund beat 99.6% of all fund managers.
 
…..read more HERE
 
 
 
 
 
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Chart of the Day

For some perspective on the all-important earnings environment, today’s chart illustrates ‘as reported’ S&P 500 earnings growth (i.e. 12-month rate of change) since 1940. There are a couple of points of interest. For one, earnings growth has tended to peak in the 20 to 40% range and trough somewhere in the -10 to -20% range. At least that was the case up until this millennium. Since the dot-com crash (i.e. the 2001 – 2002 timeframe), earnings growth volatility has increased dramatically. In fact, the post-financial crisis spike to 793% is not even shown on today’s chart so as to allow the rest of the data to remain visible (i.e. not flattened out). It is worth noting that this historic post-financial crisis earnings growth spike is due in large part to the fact that earnings came in so low as a result of the financial crisis. That said, earnings growth has dipped into negative territory for the first time since the financial crisis.

Notes:
Where’s the Dow headed? The answer may surprise you. Find out right now with the exclusive & Barron’s recommended charts of Chart of the Day Plus.

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Quote of the Day
“He who likes cherries soon learns to climb.” – German proverb

Events of the Day
May 15, 2013 – Cannes Film Festival begins (ends May 26th)
May 18, 2013 – Preakness Stakes – Armed Forces Day
May 20, 2013 – Victoria Day (Canada)
May 21, 2013 – French Open tennis tournament begins (ends June 9th)
May 26, 2013 – Indianapolis 500
May 27, 2013 – Memorial Day (observed)

Stocks of the Day
— Find out which stocks investors are focused on with the most active stocks today.
— Which stocks are making big money? Find out with the biggest stock gainers today.
— What are the largest companies? Find out with the largest companies by market cap.
— Which stocks are the biggest dividend payers? Find out with the highest dividend paying stocks.
— You can also quickly review the performance, dividend yield and market capitalization for each of the Dow Jones Industrial Average Companies as well as for each of the S&P 500 Companies.

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