Timing & trends

Canada Blocks China

aecon

Canada has blocked a proposed C$1.51 billion takeover of construction company Aecon (ARE.TO) by a Chinese state builder on national security grounds, underscoring rising wariness of Chinese firms buying up assets in Western countries.

Aecon’s takeover by overseas investment and financing arm of China Communications Construction Co Ltd <601800.SS> was scheduled to close in February. But this was delayed after Canada extended a national security review.

The Canadian government has now ordered… CLICK for the complete article

Savvy Insights

U.S. Economic Expansion Set To Continue

While there has been some deceleration at the margin in some of the macro data (e.g., LEIs), overall the economic expansion looks set to continue over the next few months, and in general until further notice. All of these charts or concepts are somewhat inter-related, as is the economy in general, and almost all indicators are positive: R. Zurrer for Money Talks

Screenshot 2018-05-15 08.47.14

Analysis: Over the 90 years between 1927 and 2017, the average S&P 500 monthly return during expansions was +0.89% (889 months), compared to an average S&P 500 monthly return during recessions of -0.71% (191 months). The business cycle also has important implications for Fed policy. *Note that recessions are not announced by the NBER until well after their start dates*

…..continue for Next Chart & Analysis HERE

 

Todd Market Forecast: S&P 500 Breaks Out

Steve Todd notes that although we have broken a downdtrend line from January, the Stock Market is somewhat overbought. The real short term money has been made in his bullish US Dollar and Bearish Gold posiitions R. Zurrer for Money Talks.  

 For 3pm PST Wednesday May 9, 2018

DOW + 182 on 675 net advances

NASDAQ COMP + 73 on 691 net advances

SHORT TERM TREND Bullish

INTERMEDIATE TERM Bullish

STOCKS: There seemed to be several factors at work on Wednesday. First, the political reaction to the decision on Iran seemed to be pretty mild on Tuesday. This probably encouraged investors. 

Second, the inflation data was pretty benign. This suggested that the Fed may not be so anxious to raise rates.

Third, CNBC pointed out that there was a technical breakout for the S&P 500. We show this in the chart below. 

GOLD: Gold was lower by $1. Very minor range at present. 

CHART: The S&P 500 broke out of a declining trendline connecting a series of peaks going back to late January. This may have encouraged buying by traders who monitor this type of thing. Yes, we are overbought and that is something to be aware of. 

Screenshot 2018-05-10 06.50.01

www.toddmarketforecast.com

BOTTOM LINE: (Trading)

Our intermediate term system is on a buy.

System 7 We are in cash. Stay there on Thursday. 

System 9 We are neutral. 

NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS: The PPI-FD rose 0.1%, less than the expected 0.3%. Oil inventories dropped 2.2 million barrels. Last week they rose 6.2 million. On Thursday we get the CPI and jobless claims.

INTERESTING STUFF :  There is no great genius without some touch of madness. —–Aristotle

TORONTO EXCHANGE: Toronto gained 68. 

BONDS: Bonds were lower. 

THE REST: The dollar had a mild drop. Crude oil surged to a new rally high. 

Bonds –Bullish as of April 26.

U.S. dollar – Bullish as of April 23.

Euro — Bearish as of April 23. 

Gold —-Bearish as of March 27.

Silver—- Bearish as of March 27.

Crude oil —-Bullish as of May 4.

Toronto Stock Exchange—-Bullish as of Feb. 12.

We are on a long term buy signal for the markets of the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany and France.

Mercedes Benz Plan for Surviving the Auto Revolution

mercedes

IF YOU’RE THE guy in charge of leading Daimler—you know, the world’s largest luxury carmaker, one of Europe’s most important tech companies, and the inventor of the automobile—into a threatening future, it can’t hurt to have a name that sounds made for a superhero. Good thing it’s a guy named Wilko Stark helming CASE (that’s connectivity, autonomous, shared and services, and electric mobility), which Daimler launched in 2016 to address the most promising and troubling trends under one roof. He’s the fellow tasked with forging a 20-year blueprint for Daimler and its flagship, Mercedes-Benz… CLICK HERE for the complete article