Timing & trends

Todd Market Forecast: Weeks of Upside

Posted by Stephen Todd - Todd Market Forecast

on Tuesday, 17 April 2018 13:45

For Mon. April 16, 2018 3:00 Pacific

DOW + 213 on 1285 net advances

NASDAQ COMP + 50 on 851 net advances

SHORT TERM TREND Bullish

INTERMEDIATE TERM Bullish

STOCKS: The market went into the weekend with Middle Eastern war fears, but the end result was a positive. President Trump did what he promised and there was very little reaction from the other belligerents in the area. 

The Dow was up over 300 at one point then some talk about additional tariffs hit the wire and this caused a bit of a retreat, but it was still a good day and the pattern of ascending highs and ascending lows is still holding on the daily charts of the important indices.

GOLD: Gold was flat in spite of a decent drop by the dollar. The yellow metal seems a bit confused at present. 

CHART: Sentiment is falling into place for a tradable rally from current levels. The put call ratios have been favorable. Now, the surveys are coming along. When the bearish percentage of the 5 week moving average of the American Association of Individual investors exceeds 32, we generally have weeks of upside in store. 

sentiment

BOTTOM LINE: (Trading)

Our intermediate term system is back on a buy.

System 7 We are long the SSO from 107.07. Stay with it on Tuesday. 

System 9 Currently neutral 

NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS: Retail sales rose 0.6%, better than the expected 0.4%. The Empire State mfg survey came in at 15.8, less than the consensus 18.2. The housing market index came in at 69, less than the expected 70. On Tuesday we get industrial production and housing starts.

INTERESTING STUFF: When I want to understand what is happening today or try to decide what will happen tomorrow, I look back.— Omar Khayyam

TORONTO EXCHANGE: Toronto gained 26

BONDS: Bonds inched up again. 

THE REST: The dollar sank to a seven day low. Crude oil retreated from an overbought condition. 

Bonds –Bearish as of April 3. 

U.S. dollar – Bearish as of April 9.

Euro — Bullish as of April 9.

Gold —-Bearish as of March 27.

Silver—- Bearish as of March 27.

Crude oil —-Bullish as of April 11 .

Toronto Stock Exchange—-Bullish as of Feb. 12.

We are on a long term buy signal for the markets of the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany and France.

Screenshot 2018-04-17 06.44.00

Monetary conditions (+2 means the Fed is actively dropping rates; +1 means a bias toward easing. 0 means neutral, -1 means a bias toward tightening, -2 means actively raising rates). RSI (30 or below is oversold, 80 or above is overbought). McClellan Oscillator ( minus 100 is oversold. Plus 100 is overbought). Composite Gauge (5 or below is negative, 13 or above is positive). Composite Gauge five day m.a. (8.0 or below is overbought. 12.0 or above is oversold). CBOE Put Call Ratio ( .80 or below is a negative. 1.00 or above is a positive). Volatility Index, VIX (low teens bearish, high twenties bullish), VIX % single day change. + 5 or greater bullish. -5 or less, bearish. VIX % change 5 day m.a. +3.0 or above bullish, -3.0 or below, bearish. Advances minus declines three day m.a.( +500 is bearish. – 500 is bullish). Supply Demand 5 day m.a. (.45 or below is a positive. .80 or above is a negative). Trading Index (TRIN) 1.40 or above bullish. No level for bearish. 

  No guarantees are made. Traders can and do lose money. The publisher may take positions in recommended securities.

The Most Popular 3 Articles This Week

Posted by Money Talks Editor

on Saturday, 14 April 2018 14:54

DaToD-6WsAA-Fc41. Kiss The Jobs and Government Revenue Goodbye – along with Canada’s Investment Reputation

$47 billion lost in government revenue – 800,000 man hours of work gone if the Trans Mountain pipeline gets scrapped. And for what? Best case scenario is .03 of a % reduction in global emissions. But don’t worry – there’s one big winner –  San Francisco based Corporate Ethics, who in 2008 launched and financed the campaign to landlock Alberta oil. Oh yeah, US oil producers are smiling too. 

 ….continue reading HERE

2. Short Sale of the Century

The Liberal’s have gone a step to fare when they made it clear a citizen doesn’t have right to Federal money if they disagree with the Prime Minister’s point of view. 

….Click HERE for full comment

3. Climate Change Advocates Have Blown It

Misleading statements, hypocrisy, over the top predictions of eco-catastrophe, intolerance and disrespect for opposing views and a totalitarian like determination to stop anyone from questioning their agenda – too often those are the common of the Climate Crusaders. And they’re hurting public support for taking effective action.

…read more HERE

Energy Curiosities – An Ongoing Photo Essay

Posted by Bob Hoye - Institutional Advisors

on Friday, 13 April 2018 18:00

thennow

ecur

The Liberal Federal Government is torn between the passions of mob politics and the dispassionate rule of law. It reminds of a donkey standing between two equally compelling stacks of hay.

The following by broadcaster Mike Campbell is a good intro to the latest pipeline fiasco:

mcam

 

….continue for Bob Hoye’s Photo Essay:

The Individual Investor Has Left The Building

Posted by Bespoke Investment Group

on Friday, 13 April 2018 14:23

sell-high-go-short

It took a long time before individual retail investors were even mildly bullish before the big drop, but now they are “flat out BEARISH”. Since every major turn down into a bear market has been precededed by a long period of increasing optimism ultimately ending in euphoria, it was unusual as this analyst points out that just before the recent drop from the January 26th 2018 high, the “little guy’s”were just beginning to become optimistic. Not eurphoric, but getting “comfortable” as explained below. Perhaps now they are virtually absent as they were when this chart below appeared in 2017: – R. Zurrer for Money Talks

retailpart-1

 

Individual Investors Bail

2018 hasn’t been the year for the little guy.  Late last year, individual investors appeared to be finally getting comfortable with stocks as bullish sentiment in the weekly poll from AAII topped 50% for the first time in nearly three years.  For a little while, they enjoyed the ride as equities surged to start the year and bullish sentiment reached just shy of 60%.  Then the correction came.  Since then, the bulls have been in steady retreat as increased volatility and lower prices remind these individuals why they were so apprehensive in the first place.  This week provided a further confirmation of that trend as bullish sentiment in the weekly AAII poll dropped from 31.9% down to 26.09%.  This marked the fourth straight week of declining bullish sentiment and took the percentage of bulls to the lowest level since last August.

 

041218-AAII-Bullish-Sentiment

 

 Charts courtesy of Bespoke – Save 30% By Starting a Bespoke Research Trial Now!

The investors leaving the bullish camp recently aren’t just moving to the neutral sidelines either.  They are flat out bearish.  In this week’s survey, bearish sentiment surged from 36.6% up to 42.75%.  Bearish sentiment has now increased by more than 20 percentage points in the last four weeks and is at its highest level since last March.

 

Fence sitters have plummetted in recent weeks as well, so it’s not as though investors don’t have conviction.  After hitting a recent high of over 45% in early March, neutral sentiment is now down to 31.2%.

 

 

Todd Market Forecast: Impressive Breadth & Hot Techs

Posted by Stephen Todd - Todd Market Forecast

on Thursday, 12 April 2018 13:12

Fear of War, both Trade and Missiles drove all 3 Stock Indexes down yesterday. Despite the hammering, there were actually more NYSE issues up than down, an unusual event. Mr. Todd thinks something is going to happen missle wise, but doubts that “it will effect markets all that much” – R. Zurrer For Money Talks

Wednesday April 11, 2018. 3:00 Pacific

DOW – 219 on 4 net advances

NASDAQ COMP – 25 on 72 net declines

SHORT TERM TREND Bullish

INTERMEDIATE TERM Bullish

STOCKS: Today was all about the prospect of military conflict in the Middle East. Russia issued threats and President Trump issued counter threats. It does look something is about to happen, but I doubt that it will affect the markets all that much.

Today also looked like a bit of reaction and profit taking to yesterdays gonzo move.

We were impressed by breadth. It isn’t often that we see a 200 point Dow drop with more advances than declines. 

GOLD: Gold gained $11. We still haven’t closed above the late March peak which constitutes resistance.

CHART: The QQQ is the ETF for the NASDAQ 100 and it has a tendency to be market leader. I am impressed that after a March decline, it is now making a series of ascending highs and ascending lows. 

toddm

www.toddmarketforecast.com

BOTTOM LINE: (Trading)

 

Our intermediate term system is back on a buy.

System 7 We’re currently in cash. If the S&P 500 is positive on Thursday with 5 minutes to go in the session, buy the SSO at the close. 

System 9 Currently neutral 

NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS: The CPI was down 0.1%, lower than the expected unchanged reading. Oil inventories rose 3.3 million barrels. Last week they declined 4.6 million. 

INTERESTING STUFF: Nothing is more difficult, and therefore more precious, than to be able to decide. ——-Napoleon Bonaparte 

TORONTO EXCHANGE: Toronto was down 4. 

BONDS: Bonds were higher. 

THE REST: The dollar stopped going down. Crude oil was higher and moved above the resistance zone which was the previous peak in late March. 

Bonds –Bearish as of April 3.

U.S. dollar – Bearish as of April 9.

Euro — Bullish as of April 9.

Gold —-Bearish as of March 27.

Silver—- Bearish as of March 27.

Crude oil —-Change to bullish as of April 11 .

Toronto Stock Exchange—-Bullish as of Feb. 12.

We are on a long term buy signal for the markets of the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany and France.

toddp

Monetary conditions (+2 means the Fed is actively dropping rates; +1 means a bias toward easing. 0 means neutral, -1 means a bias toward tightening, -2 means actively raising rates). RSI (30 or below is oversold, 80 or above is overbought). McClellan Oscillator ( minus 100 is oversold. Plus 100 is overbought). Composite Gauge (5 or below is negative, 13 or above is positive). Composite Gauge five day m.a. (8.0 or below is overbought. 12.0 or above is oversold). CBOE Put Call Ratio ( .80 or below is a negative. 1.00 or above is a positive). Volatility Index, VIX (low teens bearish, high twenties bullish), VIX % single day change. + 5 or greater bullish. -5 or less, bearish. VIX % change 5 day m.a. +3.0 or above bullish, -3.0 or below, bearish. Advances minus declines three day m.a.( +500 is bearish. – 500 is bullish). Supply Demand 5 day m.a. (.45 or below is a positive. .80 or above is a negative). Trading Index (TRIN) 1.40 or above bullish. No level for bearish. 

  No guarantees are made. Traders can and do lose money. The publisher may take positions in recommended securities.