Timing & trends

Visualizing the Massive $15.7 Trillion Impact of AI

Screen Shot 2018-02-05 at 6.26.51 AMFor the people most immersed in the tech sector, it’s hard to think of a more controversial topic than the ultimate impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on society.

By eventually empowering machines with a level of superintelligence, there are many different possible outcomes ranging from Kurzweil’s technological singularity to the more dire predictions popularized by Elon Musk.

Despite this wide gap in potential outcomes, most technologists do agree on one thing: AI will have a profound impact on the society and the way we do business. 

THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF AI

Today’s infographic comes from the Extraordinary Future 2017, a new conference in Vancouver, BC that focuses on emerging technologies such as AI, autonomous vehicles, fintech, and blockchain tech. 

In the below infographic, we look recent projections from PwC and Accenture regarding AI’s economic impact, as well as the industries and countries that will be the most profoundly affected.

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Amazon, Buffett, JPMorgan Team Up on Healthcare: Hot Air or Real Deal?

 

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Three high-power firms agreed to take on rising healthcare costs. Sceptics abound. Can they succeed where others failed?

Three corporate behemoths — Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway and JPMorgan Chase — announced on Tuesday that they would form an independent health care company for their employees in the United States.

It was unclear how extensively the three partners would overhaul their employees’ existing health coverage — whether they would simply help workers find a local doctor, steer employees to online medical advice or use their muscle to negotiate lower prices for drugs and procedures.

Details are scant but hopes are high in this joint BusinessWire Statement.

Three Statements

  • Warren Buffett: “The ballooning costs of healthcare act as a hungry tapeworm on the American economy. Our group does not come to this problem with answers. But we also do not accept it as inevitable. Rather, we share the belief that putting our collective resources behind the country’s best talent can, in time, check the rise in health costs while concurrently enhancing patient satisfaction and outcomes.”
  • Jeff Bezos: “The healthcare system is complex, and we enter into this challenge open-eyed about the degree of difficulty,” said Jeff Bezos, Amazon founder and CEO. “Hard as it might be, reducing healthcare’s burden on the economy while improving outcomes for employees and their families would be worth the effort. Success is going to require talented experts, a beginner’s mind, and a long-term orientation.”
  • Jamie Dimon: “Our people want transparency, knowledge and control when it comes to managing their healthcare.The three of our companies have extraordinary resources, and our goal is to create solutions that benefit our U.S. employees, their families and, potentially, all Americans”

Details Scant, Sceptics Abound

CNBC says this is a Lot Tougher Than It Looks.

  • Evercore health-care analyst Ross Muken: “Bending the overall health-cost curve isn’t about controlling drug prices, modernizing the supply chain or improving devices. Those are all relatively small parts of spending and some of those parts are deflationary already. This is about getting to the guts of the system and where the inefficiency lies, which is physicians and hospitals. A majority of the costs in the system sit within organizations that are difficult to reform. Furthermore, trying to tackle physician compensation also seems like a heroic effort and one that is likely to cause massive uproar, particularly amongst the senior population.”
  • Mickey Chadha, a vice president at Moody’s: The new joint venture “could be disruptive” and put competitive pressure on pharmacy giants CVS and Walgreens and pharmacy benefit managers, but the regulatory burden around every aspect of health care puts “any new entrant in the space at a huge disadvantage. Companies like CVS, Walgreens, United Healthcare, Aetna and Express Scripts already have large scale, which allows for better vendor and drug manufacturer contracting and the ability to serve national clients.”
  • Gary Claxton, vice president of the Kaiser Family Foundation, said the biggest driver of health costs is the money spent on sick and very sick people. “It’s not clear what private payers can do” to drive down those costs, Claxton said, referring to insurance plans such as those offered by Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway, J.P. Morgan Chase and other businesses, as opposed to large publicly provided health coverage systems such as Medicare and Medicaid.

Tough or Impossible?

Gary Claxton nails the largest problem: “The biggest driver of health costs is the money spent on sick and very sick people.”

Right to Die

Does your policy cover lung cancer? Why should it have to?

But if it doesn’t, why are you entitled to treatment?

I am a strong believer in the right to die. Spending hundreds of thousands of dollars to keep someone alive for an extra few months is absurd.

Lack of Choices

Obamacare mandated Gold, Silver, and Bronze options. I propose letting insurers offer whatever plans they want.

Basic coverage might cover emergencies, but not long-term cancer treatments.

The marketplace, not government bureaucrats should come up with plans and pricing. Let people pick the options they want.

Mish Health Care Proposals

Published fees: Fees for routine services, medicine, and operations need to be published, not set by government mandate. Whether or not someone is insured, the fees should be the same.

Shopping Around: People should be encouraged to shop around for the lowest-cost provider. Insurers can help. Want to go somewhere else? If your policy covers what you seek, fine. If not, you pay extra.

Foreign Services: Bloomberg reported Heart Surgery in India for $1,583 Costs $106,385 in U.S.Demand treatment in the US? Fine. You should have to pay for it with higher premiums. It’s a free choice. Obviously, this provision does not apply to emergency services like an accident or a heart attack.

Drug Pricing: Allow imports of drugs to increase competition. Medicaid and Medicare should buy in bulk from the lowest cost provider.

Right to Die: No one should be kept alive if they want to die. Nor should someone be artificially kept alive if they do not have insurance, or their spouse or designated appointee wants to pull the plug on their behalf.

Right to Refuse Service: If someone is not insured, hospitals should have the right to refuse service.

Medicare/Medicaid: Currently, those over 65 do not care what things cost. Incentives are necessary to make sure they do. This includes forcing overseas treatment for those able to travel. Once again, spending hundreds of thousands of dollars to keep someone alive for an extra few months is beyond absurd. Medicare should be no different on foreign care or shopping around.

Patent Restrictions: Patent laws need to be revised to prohibit making minor changes and renewing patents for extended periods again and again.

Eliminate State Restrictions: Allow any insurance company in any state sell insurance in whatever states they want.

Bezos Factor

My proposals provide significant cost savings opportunities forced on drug providers, allowed by hospitals, and allowed by insurers, at a huge benefit to insureds.

Some of my proposals require significant changes to Obamacare. So what?

With Buffett, Bezos, and Dimon on board, such changes are not impossible.

I do not dismiss anything out of hand when Jeff Bezos and Amazon are involved.

By Mike “Mish” Shedlock

 

Todd Market Forecast: No Fear Yet

Wednesday January 31, 2018 www.toddmarketforecast.com

Available Mon- Friday after 6:00 P.M. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific.

DOW + 73 on 186 net advances

NASDAQ COMP + 9 on 699 net declines

SHORT TERM TREND Bullish

INTERMEDIATE TERM Bullish

STOCKS: Very choppy day. In the early going, the Dow was up a whopping 261 points. It then proceeded to give it all back, eventually going underwater by 25 points before surging back.

So, what is going on? Most likely end of month adjustments complicated by computer algorithms.

January was up150 S&P 500 points or 5.6%. According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, an up January predicts that the remainder of the year will be up with an 89.1% accuracy.

Near term setbacks aside, this market should have further gains in store, not only because of the above statistic, but because of earnings and decreased regulations.

GOLD: Gold was up $9. Long term rates were lower and the Fed declined to raise short term rates.

CHART: We continue to be somewhat concerned about the low readings of the 5 day m.a. of the CBOE Put Call Ratio. The decline should have put more fear into option traders.   

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BOTTOM LINE:  (Trading)

 

Our intermediate term system is on a buy.

System 7 We are in cash. We are concerned about the low readings of the put call ratio, but most gauges are oversold. Let’s try a scalp. Buy the SSO at the open on Thursday.

System 9 Currently neutral.  

NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS: The ADP employment report showed an additional 234,000 jobs. The consensus was for 195,000. Oil inventories rose 6.8 million. Last week they dropped 1.1 million. On Thursday we get jobless claims, the PMI manufacturing index and the ISM manufacturing index.  

INTERESTING STUFF: Our greatest weakness lies in giving up. The most certain way to succeed is always to try just one more time. —Thomas A. Edison

TORONTO EXCHANGE: Toronto was down 4.

BONDS: Bonds rebounded somewhat.

THE REST: The dollar was lower. Crude oil bounced.

Bonds –Bearish as of Jan. 9.

U.S. dollar – Bearish as of Jan 12.

Euro — Bullish as of Jan 12.

Gold —-Bearish as of Jan 26.

Silver—- Bearish as of Jan 26.

Crude oil —-Bearish as of January 30.

Toronto Stock Exchange—-Bearish as of January 29, 2018.

We are on a long term buy signal for the markets of the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany and France.

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Monetary conditions (+2 means the Fed is actively dropping rates; +1 means a bias toward easing. 0 means neutral, -1 means a bias toward tightening, -2 means actively raising rates). RSI (30 or below is oversold, 80 or above is overbought). McClellan Oscillator ( minus 100 is oversold. Plus 100 is overbought). Composite Gauge (5 or below is negative, 13 or above is positive). Composite Gauge five day m.a. (8.0 or below is overbought. 13.0 or above is oversold). CBOE Put Call Ratio ( .80 or below is a negative. 1.00 or above is a positive). Volatility Index, VIX (low teens bearish, high twenties bullish), VIX % single day change. + 5 or greater bullish. -5 or less, bearish. VIX % change 5 day m.a. +3.0 or above bullish, -3.0 or below, bearish. Advances minus declines three day m.a.( +500 is bearish. – 500 is bullish). Supply Demand 5 day m.a. (.45 or below is a positive. .80 or above is a negative). Trading Index (TRIN) 1.40 or above bullish. No level for bearish.

  No guarantees are made. Traders can and do lose money. The publisher may take positions in recommended securities.  

  

    

 

 

It’s the Most Important Question I’ve Had in 6 Years

US dollar symbolGet this right and everything else falls into place 

The World Outlook Financial Conference is just 3 days away and I can hardly wait. The track record has been amazing, from predicting the 2014 peak in oil and subsequent fall, to recommending the nascent marijuana industry at the same time.  We called the massive move in real estate in Vancouver in February, 2010 – the bottom on the stock market in March, 2009 – we even recommended Bitcoin Trust last January.
 
Obviously great money making forecasts, but there is one prediction made in the fall of 2012 and repeated at every subsequent conference that is more important than all the others. I’m talking about forecasting the huge up-move in the US dollar and the accompanying weakness in the loonie. I say more important not just because you could have exchanged the Canadian dollar for the greenback, put it under the mattress and made 30%, but for three other significant  reasons.

  1. A strong US dollar means money is coming into the US from all over the world, which is a significant factor in propelling the stock market to record highs.
  2. Any sustained recovery in the devastated commodity market, especially gold, is next to impossible with a strong US dollar.
  3. Trillions in US dollar denominated debt issued by foreign governments would be much closer to default with the increased strength in the greenback.

There are other reasons because the US dollar is the world’s reserve currency but let me get to what’s going on today.
 
My Big Question 
 
Is the current weakness in the US dollar indicating the major trend has changed, bringing the greenback inexorably lower over time? Because if the major trend has changed all of us have to act because it reverses the major investment moves of the last six years. 
 
A weaker dollar would mean higher commodity prices. It would probably result in lower bond prices as money leaves the US. Stocks would go down on the short term as money leaves the States.  It would mean the price of all US real estate holdings would drop in Canadian dollar terms, which may be of big interest to investors with properties in Palm Springs, Phoenix and Florida.
 
I’ve always said – if there is only one thing to get right in investing – it is the direction of the US dollar.  So not a big surprise that I want to know if the major trend has changed and the US dollar is about to go down OR if this is simply a correction and a chance to exchange more money into US dollar while the loonie’s up.
 
The good news is that we’ve got some of the top analysts in the world at the conference to help with the answer. Jack Crooks, well known currency expert will join James Thorne, billionaire money manager and Martin Armstrong, who’s been called the top forecast in the world.
 
Great people to have in your corner, and as I said, the answer is essential for your financial well being.
 
Of course, there are lots of other reasons to attend the conference. Josef Schachter is hosting a special program on oil and gas. Josef correctly predicted the recent rise in oil and gas stocks and we’ll get a chance to find out what he thinks now. Should we take profits or take bigger positions? 
 
Ryan Irvine will give his World Outlook Small Cap Portfolio, which has returned double digits every year – although that’s no guarantee of future success – but I like our odds. I’m really looking forward to getting the latest from Mark Leibovit on the marijuana sector, given he was the first one to recommend it nearly 4 years ago. And for the first time, BT Global’s Paul Beatty is coming and I guarantee that when he recommends a stock I’ll be taking notes.
 
I appreciate that spending Friday and Saturday at the World Outlook Conference is not everyone’s cup of tea – maybe you have shopping to do or TV to watch – but I guarantee you’ll be missing out. Big things are happening that we can’t afford to ignore – at least if our financial future is important.
 
We have only 61 seats left – so don’t hesitate. Your financial future is worth it. And please come up and say hi at the conference.
 
Sincerely,
 
Mike
 
PS To get tickets or a subscription to the archive video click on the link below.

wofc2018

What Do Quincy Jones, Serena Williams and Blockchain Have in Common?Fr

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Two big themes last week at Inside ETFs, the Comic-Con of exchange-traded funds attended by more than 2,300 advisors and investors, were innovation and disruption. Like all other industries, the investing world has seen its fair share of disruption in the past quarter-century—think indexing, passive investing, the rise of robo-allocation and now blockchain and cryptocurrencies. This year marks the 25th anniversary of the first ever ETF, and today total ETF assets top $3 trillion. That’s a far cry from the estimated $40 trillion sitting in mutual funds worldwide, but exchange-traded funds are rapidly catching up as investors seek cheaper, more innovative and tax-efficient instruments.

Consider robo-advisors, which emerged only 10 years ago. Who would have thought in the mid-2000s that so many investors would be comfortable enough with the idea of a machine managing their money? And yet here we are. By 2020, Citi analysts predict, assets controlled by robo-advisors could reach close to $450 billion globally.

Robo advisor  platforms forecast to continue growing around the world click to enlarge

Disruption was definitely top of mind during many of the presentations and interviews at Inside ETFs, including that of producer and composer Quincy Jones, who was at the conference to promote a new stock index that tracks music and entertainment companies. “Q” is the very definition of a legend, having been at the center of some of the most influential musicians, actors, and artists over the course of his long career. With a record 79 Grammy Award nominations to his name, he’s made an indelible impression on the music, television, and film we all consume and enjoy, whether we’re aware of it or not.

When CNBC’s Bob Pisani asked Jones if he was ready for the day when robots write and perform music, the 84-year-old Jones said, “You can’t stop the technology,” adding that he was among the earliest experimenters of synthesizers. (Anyone remember the synthy theme song to the old 1960s-1970s detective show, Ironside? That was composed by Quincy Jones.)

“You got to always stay curious. You got to be willing to take a chance,” he said.

Tennis star Serena Williams being interviewed by Barry Ritholtz at Inside ETFs 2018

A similar forward-thinking attitude was expressed by Serena Williams, who was also in attendance. The tennis virtuoso and four-time Olympic gold medal winner, who bagged her 23rd Grand Slam last year while pregnant, is a savvy businesswoman in her own right, sitting on the board of online survey firm SurveyMonkey and Oath, a subsidiary of Verizon that controls a number of media outlets such as HuffPost, Yahoo and Tumblr.

When asked why she was drawn to tech firms in particular—her husband Alexis Ohanian co-founded Reddit—Williams said, “This is a new time, and I don’t want to be left behind.”

I couldn’t agree more with Jones and Williams.

Embracing Disruption with HIVE Blockchain Technologies

Curiosity and a willingness to embrace change and innovation are what led me to invest in HIVE Blockchain Technologies and agree to become its chairman last year. As many of you know, HIVE is the first publicly-traded company engaged in the mining of virgin digital currencies, including bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, Dash, Monero and many more.

I’m thrilled to be at the forefront of this new technology that’s already disrupting our industry and reshaping how transactions are made and companies raise funds across the globe. The year 2017 was the real catalyst, bringing cryptocurrencies into mainstream conversations as bitcoin hit an all-time high of nearly $20,000 apiece in mid-December.

Total crypto market cap briefly cracked $830 billion earlier this month yet has since receded to around $540 billion, with strong pressure being exerted by the global equities bull market. A record $33.2 billion flowed into stocks in the week ended January 24, according to investments data provider EPFR Global. U.S. stocks alone attracted $7 billion, while emerging markets saw inflows reach $8.1 billion, the second-highest amount recorded in a week.

Competition among digital currencies is also heating up. Although bitcoin remains the top dog, it faces tough competition from the likes of Ethereum, Litecoin, Ripple and the other nearly-1,500 coins on the market today. It now accounts for about 40 percent of the entire market, down from almost 100 percent just a few years ago.

Bitcoin is facing gretaer competition from other cryptocurrencies
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What’s important to remember is that digital currencies are, at the moment, highly volatile and speculative. Unlike gold and other hard assets, they haven’t been tested in all economic backdrops. Bitcoin was created only in 2009, after the worst months of the financial crisis, and it’s existed mainly in an environment of rising equity prices and gradually improving economic conditions. How investors might use it in the next recession or major market correction is unknown at this point.

Coinbase Generated $1 Billion in Sales Last Year

Having said that, the crypto space is rapidly maturing in a number of different ways. Every day, more and more businesses accept the currency as a form of payment. Investors can now buy bitcoin futures. Fidelity and USAA both allow account holders to monitor their cryptocurrency holdings. Blockchain ETFs are appearing on the market—though a couple of proposed bitcoin ETFs have hit roadblocks getting approval from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). And I overheard at the Canaccord Genuity Blockchain Conference in Toronto last week that as many as 10,000 millionaires have been created from Ethereum.

Last year, the cryptocurrency trading platform Coinbase booked $1 billion in revenue, almost double what company executives had expected for 2017. Founded only six years ago and boasting more than 13.5 million accounts, Coinbase has recently closed the door on any additional venture capital, leaving investors to hope for an initial public offering (IPO) sometime in the near future.

Coinbase is about to face some serious competition, though, as smartphone-only trading app Robinhood will begin allowing customers to trade bitcoin and Ethereum next month—all commission-free.

World Gold Council: Cryptocurrencies Are No Substitute for Gold

Several attendees at Inside ETFs and the blockchain conference raised concerns that cryptocurrencies are on a path to replace gold as a safe haven investment. I’ve mentioned multiple times before that I do not see this to be the case, for a number of reasons. Unlike bitcoin, gold has thousands of years’ worth of history to justify its role as a currency and store of value. Central banks own gold, as do institutional and retail investors. It’s widely used not just as money but also as jewelry and in dentistry and electronics. The metal, in fact, can be found in the very computer hardware used to mine bitcoin.

Now, in a new report, the World Gold Council (WGC) takes the position that, while cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology are attractive, they simply don’t and can’t usurp gold’s place in investors’ portfolios.

What’s more, “there isn’t any quantifiable evidence that gold holdings are directly suffering from competition from cryptocurrencies,” the WGC writes.

Tennis star Serena Williams being interviewed by Barry Ritholtz at Inside ETFs 2018

Need proof? According to the group, bitcoin currently trades around $2 billion a day on average. That’s less than 1 percent of the $250 billion in gold bullion that’s traded every day. Remember, gold is one of the most liquid currencies in the world, with a highly developed and accepted market structure.

There are several other important differences between the two asset classes, and I highly recommend you read the full report. You can do so by clicking here.

Investors Pile into Gold-Backed ETFs Ahead of Potential Jump in Inflation

Coming back full circle to ETFs, Bloomberg reported last week that holdings in gold bullion-backed funds rose to their highest level since 2013 on a weaker U.S. dollar, rising geopolitical risk and growing expectations that inflation could finally heat up in 2018.

Holdings climbed to 2,250 metric tons earlier last week, the highest amount since May 2013, when gold prices were still in the $1,400 to $1,500-an-ounce range.

Holdings in bullion backed ETFs are at their highest since 2013
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The U.S. dollar has plunged in value for the past several weeks, dipping more than 1 percent last Wednesday alone—the biggest one-day pullback in 10 months—following Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s comment at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that a weaker buck “is good for us as it’s related to trade and opportunities.” The greenback similarly tanked back in April 2017 when President Donald Trump said the dollar is “getting too strong.” Soon after, it fell below its 200-day moving average.

US dollar has lost 12 percent since Trumps inaug
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Last Thursday, however, Trump walked back Mnuchin’s (and his own) comment, telling CNBC that the dollar “is going to get stronger and stronger, and ultimately I want to see a strong dollar.”

In any case, this has all been constructive for the price of gold, which Thomson Reuters GFMS now sees hitting $1,500 an ounce this year. If you remember, $1,500 was approximately my estimate after analyzing gold’s performance in the months following the December rate hikes in 2015 and 2016.

According to Thomson Reuters, the price appreciation could be driven by “concerns that the United States may pull out of NAFTA.”

Doing so, of course, would be highly inflationary—and inflation, as I point out in last week’s episode of Frank Talk Live, has historically been a tailwind for gold. The tax overhaul is already helping to boost wages at Walmart, Starbucks and elsewhere, and the U.S. recently slapped fresh tariffs on imported washing machines and solar cells. In response, South Korea opened two cases against the U.S. at the World Trade Organization (WTO).

And let’s not discount geopolitical noise. Last week, the “Doomsday Clock” was moved 30 seconds closer to midnight and now stands only two minutes away. That’s the closest to midnight the symbolic barometer has come since 1953, when both the U.S. and Russia first began testing thermonuclear weapons—among the most disruptive advancements of the past 100 years.

Curious to learn more about what’s driving gold? Click here!

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. By clicking the link(s) above, you will be directed to a third-party website(s). U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by this/these website(s) and is not responsible for its/their content.

Frank Holmes has been appointed non-executive chairman of the Board of Directors of HIVE Blockchain Technologies. Both Mr. Holmes and U.S. Global Investors own shares of HIVE, directly and indirectly.

The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX, DXY) is an index (or measure) of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies, often referred to as a basket of U.S. trade partners’ currencies.

Holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. None of the securities mentioned in the article were held by any accounts managed by U.S. Global Investors as of 12/31/2017.