Timing & trends

The 3 Most Interesting Articles of the Week

bitcoin tulip mania 1 01. Bitcoin Total Wipeout Alert

I have lain in wait before writing this stark a warning on Bitcoin, because if you “cry wolf” too often with something like this, you are simply written off as a fool within days if it carries on up and up. It could yet do so, but now we are seeing really extreme manifestations of mania suggesting that the top is at hand, and if not we are very close to it. 

….continue HERE

2. Albert Edwards: “Why The Current Situation Is Even Worse Than The 2008 Crisis”

“Back in May, we first reported that Goldman became the first bank to dare to ask if the Fed has lost control of the market, if in slightly more polite terms of course. This is how Jan Hatzius phrased it: “Despite two rate hikes and indications of impending balance sheet runoff, financial conditions have continued to loosen in recent months. 

Our financial conditions index is now….

…read more HERE

3. Canada’s Latest 6 City Housing Prices & The Plunge-o-Meter

In December 2017 Toronto metro SFD prices, 8 months since the March 2017 spike and peak price, continued slipping and to date have lost $207,895 or 18%. Vancouver prices are still defying gravity;

FOMO and speculative pricing is still on. 

….read it all HERE

Inflation: An X-Ray View of the Components

Here is a table showing the annualized change in Headline and Core CPI, not seasonally adjusted, for each of the past six months. Also included are the eight components of Headline CPI and a separate entry for Energy, which is a collection of sub-indexes in Housing and Transportation.

We can make some inferences about how inflation is impacting our personal expenses depending on our relative exposure to the individual components. Some of us have higher transportation costs, others medical costs, etc.

Listen to Inflation Spike at Current Valuations Could Be Ugly, Says Nevins

A conspicuous feature in the year-over-year table is the volatility in energy, significantly a result of gasoline prices, which is also reflected in Transportation.

01-yoy-cpi-rate-change

Here is the same table with month-over-month numbers (not seasonally adjusted).

m-o-m cpi rate change

The Trends in Headline and Core CPI

The chart below shows Headline and Core CPI for urban consumers since 2007. Core CPI excludes the two most volatile components: food and energy. We’ve highlighted the 2% level that the Federal Reserve is targeting for inflation, although the Fed traditionally uses the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index as their preferred inflation gauge.

CPI since 2007

Year-over-year Core CPI (the blue line) was above 2% from the end of 2015 through April and is now below that benchmark. The more volatile Headline CPI has spent most of the previous five years under the 2% lower benchmark, and much of the volatility in this metric has been the result of broad swings in gasoline prices (more on gasoline here).

For a longer-term perspective, here is a column-style breakdown of the inflation categories showing the change since 2000.

CPI Categories

Note: For additional information on the component composition of the Consumer Price Index, see our Inside the Consumer Price Index.

Dollar Crisis

This video explores the strong possibility that the US Dollar is in a crisis that is seemingly unrecognized by the Fed. The implications for future price movement in the stock and gold markets is also discussed.

https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/

Screen Shot 2017-12-14 at 6.37.07 AM

Boom! Supersonic Aircraft Back on the Runway

121317 1659 BoomSuperso1Here is a neat marketing hook: Fly from New York to London for midday meetings. Be home in time to tuck your kids into bed.

To make this possible, Boom Supersonic is building airplanes that will flit across the globe at 1,451 mph. For those of us who are physics-challenged, that is Mach 2.2 … or 2.6 times faster than every other commercial airliner.

It all might seem far-fetched. It’s not. Breakthroughs in aerospace are happening every day. Investors need to begin positioning now.

There is a good reason for the hectic pace of discovery. I call it the New Gilded Age. That is a throwback to a bygone era of invention. Then, entrepreneurs were inspired by electricity and industrialization. They changed the world and built massive fortunes.

Today, something even bigger is happening …

This is the age of the supercomputer and hyperconnectivity. Imagine what is possible when the brightest minds have access to unlimited computing power. Now imagine a continuous stream of data feeding artificial intelligence algorithms.

Already, chemists have used these tools to develop new materials. Biologists have edited genes to slow the aging process and fight deadly diseases. Mechanical engineers have pushed design to new heights.

Really cool new ideas are jumping off the drawing board.

That’s essentially the story of Boom Supersonic. The company says advances in aerodynamic design, material science and super cruise propulsion mean its Mach 2.2 jetliner is poised to become reality.

And there are buyers already waiting in line for it …

Last week, Japan Airlines announced pre-orders for 20 of the new aircraft. It also committed to invest in development, joining Virgin Group as a strategic investor.

Airlines have always been intrigued by speed. Concorde, a British-French supersonic jetliner, began shuttling the rich and famous between New York and London in 1976. However, the aircraft was plagued with mechanical issues. And its military twin turbojet engines were notoriously thirsty, not to mention noisy.

Boom’s concept borrows the familiar delta wing from Concorde. But engineers used computer modeling, data analytics and a new propulsion system to quiet the 55-seat aircraft. Three new General Electric (GE) turbojets will also sip fuel. The planes should be so efficient, the company claims airlines will be able to compete on price with current business class fares.

It’s a bold claim. However, the team has plenty of success conquering big problems in aerospace. Among other projects, the corporate website lists contributions to SpaceX Falcon 9, the F 135 Joint Strike Fighter and autopilot software on the Boeing 787.

The opportunity for investors is the ecosystem. A project of this scope requires a rethinking of air travel.

Related story:
Software Takes Flight at Airlines. How to Book Gains

The Billionaires Betting On Space Travel

imagesThe space race is on for some of the biggest names out there. Leading technology giants like Amazon.com, SpaceX, Microsoft, Virgin Group, Google, and Facebook are all getting in on the action.

Amazon.com CEO Jeff Bezos, the world’s second richest man after Microsoft’s Bill Gates, is funding rocket company Blue Origin to the tune of $1 billion a year. Blue Origin has been putting together a rocket factory in Kent, Wash., for several years. The company also plans to launch its rockets from a NASA launch pad in Cape Canaveral, Florida, in the near future.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who also heads SpaceX, is overseeing space flights with the mission of eventually making it to Mars. A new version of the ship, Dragon 2, next year will send astronauts to the International Space Station still in orbit around planet Earth.

A Morgan Stanley analyst even claimed that Tesla could lose Musk’s attention as he devotes more time to his SpaceX intergalactic travel company, with the possibility of an alliance between Tesla and SpaceX in the future.

“Investors widely expect Elon Musk to, over time, devote increasing amounts of his time and talents to SpaceX, raising the very real question of who could replace him at Tesla,” Jonas wrote. “A combination of efforts between the two firms could address this important issue.”

The two companies will play on this alliance during a TV commercial that will be broadcast in January. A SpaceX rocket will carry a Tesla Roadster sports car owned by Musk as payload when it travels toward Mars.

While an avid fan of vehicles running off renewably produced electricity, Musk’s Dragon flights are powered by Falcon 9 rockets running off of LOX (liquid oxygen) combined with RP-1, or rocket grade kerosene.Related: Blockchain And The $3.6 Trillion Infrastructure Crisis

Bill Gates’ old business partner, Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen, sees a large opportunity in offering shared rides to outer space. SpaceFlight, backed by Allen, is already booking payloads on flights and has bought up the capacity of a SpaceX rocket that can be shared by paying customers.

Virgin Group founder Richard Branson’s has already spent more than $600 million to help get commercial passenger flights into suborbital space by the end of 2018.

Branson’s Virgin Galactic spaceflight company will be bringing hyper-fast airline flights to get from places like Boston over to Beijing. Its vehicles will likely fly at a top speed of Mach 2, about twice the speed of sound – or about 774 mph. Branson sees Virgin Galactic someday providing luxurious flight experiences to passengers going to places like Mars.

A study published in August by Bloomberg profiled some of the world’s wealthiest entrepreneurs who’ve invested in space travel startups and technology innovations.

Bill Gates is investing in Kameta, supporting efforts to bring the company’s mTenna satellite technology to market, with is designed around bringing communications to cars, planes, and boats.

Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg is helping fund SETI, a University of California, Berkeley, project. One of its efforts has been Breakthrough Listen, which is looking into the existence of extraterrestrial lifeforms.Related: U.S. Shale Cautious As Oil Majors Invade Texas

While these entrepreneurs see value in software, electric cars, social media, e-commerce, and airlines, each of them expects space travel to account for a growing part of the global economy. Thousands of residents of planet Earth have expressed interest in living on Mars, and there’s a growing market for rare metals that must be extracted from asteroids, comets, and other planets.

There’s also the appeal of offering hyper-fast trips to wealthy passengers willing to put down thousands on a trip around the Earth’s orbit. Since 2001, a Virginia-based company called Space Adventures has offered multimillionaires the opportunity to ride on a Russian flight to the International Space Station.

Earlier this year, Musk announced a bold new mission for SpaceX during 2018. Two unnamed passengers will be flying a roundtrip around the Moon. It will be the first private enterprise to offer that trip beyond government-funded astronaut space flights.

By John LeSage for Oilprice.com

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