Timing & trends
The right software can change industries quickly.
For fast-moving companies like Airbnb, Stripe, Uber, Facebook, or Slack, the piping – such as the internet and smartphones – is already well-established, allowing these startups to scale at unprecedented speeds.
For 3D printing and other such “hard” technologies? Things end up being a lot more complicated.
A LONG TIME COMING
The rise of 3D printing reached peak hype years ago – and as far back as 2014, we were illustrating how 3D printing could ultimately shape the future of business. However, since those days, the technology has arguably fallen into the dreaded “trough of disillusionment” category on the famous Gartner Hype Cycle.
The harsh reality is that it’s just really hard to move things like 3D printing forward at the same type of speed as software. For the technology to scale at a commercial level, products would need to be flawless and intuitive from the get-go (they weren’t), and all engineering, technological, and design problems would need to be solved at lightning-quick speeds. Instead, it takes huge amounts of research, investment, patience, and iterations to get to the next level.
Today’s infographic comes to us from Raconteur, and it highlights a most recent snapshot of the 3D printing industry. Importantly, it shows that the technology is still chugging along in a way that is changing how things are made – just at a less hype-worthy pace.
BUILDING FROM GROUND UP
3D printing has now permeated practically every industry in at least some capacity, being used in a wide range of sectors from consumer goods to pharmaceuticals.
According to a report by EY, the potential for additive manufacturing is highest in the automotive and aerospace industries. For example, it’s expected that about half (49%) of automotive companies will use 3D printing to directly manufacture car parts in order to achieve operational efficiencies. These companies believe that 3D printing will help them address challenges such as demand for increased customization, continued improvement, and lightweight components.
As a result of increased demand and more familiarity with the technology, Gartner said shipments of 3D printers increased 108% between 2015 and 2016, resulting in 456,000 units shipped globally. More importantly, by 2020 this number will be at 6.7 million units, which would represent phenomenal growth for the technology.
As of today, most companies are still using 3D printers for accelerating product development, such as prototyping (34% of applications) and for proof of concept (23%). However, as 3D printing gets more use in additional areas – such as mass customization and collaboration on products – it’s possible the ship will really begin to sail, even if it was slightly delayed in getting out of the gate.
Michael Campbell interviews Martin on this Saturday’s Money Talks.
Martin Armstrong is a controversial market analyst who correctly predicted the 1987 crash, the top of the Japanese market, and many other market events … more or less to the day.
Three years ago, Armstrong was laughed at when he predicted the Dow would exceed 25,000. Since that prediction the Dow has gone steadily up closing at 22340 Wed Sept. 27th. The push behind US stocks is the steady decline of Europe, which is driving huge amounts of capital flooding into the U.S, creating a giant U.S. stock market bubble. The rush of cash into the US has little place to go but equities. The bubble would be indicated when we exceed the 23,000 level on the Dow.
Armstrong has also predicted that the government bond market has peaked. Armstrong said it’s better to move out of government debt and into private debt. Specifically, when governments default, you get nothing. But when private companies default, there are still some tangible assets to be divvied up. He suggested buying AA or AAA blue chip corporate debt
They do not understand that sometimes governments go bust and when that happens, you get strange results that do not mirror 1929.
They have this view that if they can eliminate cash, they can get whatever they want in taxes out of you. You have no way of doing a bank run … there’s no money.
In terms of negative interest rates in Europe, Armstrong said that European banks just sent cash to their American affiliates, who then parked excess reserves at Fed. So European banks weren’t subject to negative rates. Instead, they got paid by Fed to park their money.
And Armstrong says that the economic system is broken because politicians are motivated to ignore the real world so they can continue manipulating things for their own benefit:
Economists line up with their hands out looking for money and spin wonderful stories about how government can manipulate the world to its benefit. Whatever the governments pays them to suggest!
Government has no interest in Laizzez-faire economics for that maintains that the economy is far too complex for government to interfere. Governments embrace Marx and Keynes because they gave politicians the idea that they can manipulate the world for their political gain.
“The Wall of Worry is Gone”
– Zero Hedge, September 15, 2017.
“Every bull market climbs a wall of worry and with a rush of enthusiasm, leaps over only to find ‘Murphy’ waiting.”
– Institutional Advisors, at the peaks in 2007 and 2000. As well as now.
Through the summer we received questions about how the stock market could roll over after registering high momentum and sentiment readings on the surge into June. Then in August, the DJIA soared to accomplish the same excesses. And as we have been noting if this arose in 2017, the action could set a cyclical peak, rather than another trading high as in 2015. Our target since the April Springboard Buy has been that New York could accomplish the final surge of the bull market into September.
The Zero Hedge chart provides fresh and vivid indication of excess – at a key time.
Of course, the stock exchange is a market of individual stocks, and Wall Street has been doing its best in suggesting individual stocks represents attractive value. No need to change investor’s behavior.
Maybe this could soon be criticized.
Checklist for a Top
With buoyant action into September it is appropriate to review our “Checklist”.
Is the market up when it should be? Yes. The action has been likely to accomplish a final thrust into September and perhaps into early October.
Are there signs of speculation? Yes. This piece provides outstanding examples.
How sound is the fundamental story? The prospect of a pro-business administration is now in the market but has yet to be achieved.
As reviewed above, P/E valuations can be made attractive by generous estimates on earnings. Whether to use trailing or anticipated earnings has always been debatable.
However, by charting the S&P against the average wage reduces the ability to improve one side of the valuation equation. Will the average wage increase by some 15 percent over the next year?
Not likely, and the number is materially higher than reached in the Dot-Com Mania that climaxed in March 2000.
The stock market is remarkably overvalued and, again, accomplishing dynamic excesses close to the time when the action could peak.
Wikipedia has a good review of “Murphy’s Law”.
While it may be by only by a hair, the Equal Weighted index is still below the July high. There hasn’t been an outright bearish divergence since October 2007.
BOB HOYE, INSTITUTIONAL ADVISORS – WEBSITE: www.institutionaladvisors.com
1. The Feds & Small Business: A Breathtaking Disconnect
by Michael Campbell
The massive backlash coming from Family businesses, Doctors, Lawyers Farmers & small businesses is an indication just how little the architects of this legislation understand small businesses. Or understand how much they already pay in taxes.
2. Great Interview with the Legend, Jim Dines
by Michael Campbell & Jim Dines
Jim Dines, author of The Dines Letter has been ranked #1 several times by Timers Digest. He joins Mike to discuss the best growth areas in the market along with why the boom in marijuana stocks is just beginning. Plus his latest on gold and silver.
3. Get Ready for an Interesting October Folks – Peter Schiff, Bill Gross, BlackRock
Peter Schiff touches on a key point the feel-good-investor must now consider: we have never seen a Federal Reserve try to unwind a balance sheet of this size before, no less against the backdrop of robo-trading and real-time news.
As the world digests the propaganda released from the Federal Reserve about their preposterous plan to reduce their balance sheet, today John Embry told King World News:
“Eric, at this point the manipulation of all markets has become so blatant and the lying about the economy so intense that one has to wonder what is really going on behind the curtain…
….also from King World News:
DANGER: This Major Warning Indicator Just Hit An All-Time Record, But This Is Truly Shocking!
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