Iraq & Ukraine concerns see global shifting

Concerns over fighting in Iraq and Ukraine saw a global shift into traditional safe haven currencies, precious metals and bonds today as oil rose again and hovered near a nine-month high. European stocks fell.

Today’s AM fix was USD 1,281.75

Friday’s AM fix was USD 1,273.00

Gold climbed $3.10 or 0.24% Friday to $1,276.90/oz. Silver rose $0.14 or 0.72% to $19.70/oz. Gold and silver were both up on the week at 1.92% and 3.52% respectively.

Worries about Iraq were intensifying after Sunni insurgents seized the mainly ethnic Turkmen city in the northwest of the country over the weekend. It continued to drive fears about widespread turmoil in the country and the region.

Russia said it would cut off gas supplies to Ukraine this morning, setting the stage for a new phase of the months-long conflict between the two nations. The move came after the two sides failed to agree on a price for natural gas, a vital ingredient in Ukraine’s energy-intensive manufacturing economy. Ukraine is also a vital link between the rest of Europe and Russia’s gas supplies, transporting 15% of Europe’s gas supplies through its pipelines.

Hopes of Ukraine coming off the boil were dashed after pro-Russian separatists shot down a Ukrainian army transport plane, killing all 49 military personnel on board.

Gold climbed another 0.6% to the highest level in almost three weeks, extending a second weekly increase, as escalating violence in Iraq led to rising oil prices and safe haven demand. Gold rose 1.9% last week and a fifth day of gains today would be the longest such run since February.

Silver reached a one-month high, while platinum and palladium rose. Silver for immediate delivery climbed over 1% to $19.889 an ounce, the highest level since May 14. Palladium gained 0.9% to $822.09 an ounce, while platinum rose 0.7% to $1,443.25 an ounce.

NYMEX Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI) – 2014 YTD (Thomson Reuters)
 

Gold bullion has advanced 6.7% this year in part because of unrest in Ukraine, where tension escalated last week after pro-Russian militants shot down a transport plane in the east of the country. In Iraq, the army killed more than 279 rebels as fighting intensified in OPEC’s second-biggest producer.

If Iraq’s oil supply goes offline, crude prices could reach $150 to $200 a barrel, T. Boone Pickens, founder of BP Capital Management, told CNBC on Friday. “That’s where you have to kill demand with price. That’s the only way you can do it, because oil won’t be there,” Pickens said in an interview with “Street Signs.”

Gold in U.S. Dollars – 1 Week (Thomson Reuters)

Geopolitical risk remains high and does not look to be abating any time soon.