At last, we have entered the middle-ground of analytical thought. Between 2009 and 2017, the majority were bearish calling for the inevitable crash any day now. So after 8,6 years, they have now crossed the Rubicon and we now see there is a general expectation that stocks will keep rising, albeit at a slower pace. The reasons they now have adopted a focus on the Trump Tax Cuts and the odds seem low for a recession this year. They are also touting that economies around the world are finally in sync and starting to grow together, yet that seems to be delusional at best.
Then we have the typical fundamental arguing that with profits on the upswing for companies, stock prices tend to follow the direction of profits. That too is a myth for even Shiller has admitted that since 1881, the correlation of the past decade’s real earnings growth with the price-earnings ratio is a positive 0.32. But there is zero correlation between his CAPE ratio and the next 10 years’ real earnings growth.
….also from Martin:
It’s The Impeachment That Would Tank the Market
