Get this right and everything else falls into place
The World Outlook Financial Conference is just 3 days away and I can hardly wait. The track record has been amazing, from predicting the 2014 peak in oil and subsequent fall, to recommending the nascent marijuana industry at the same time. We called the massive move in real estate in Vancouver in February, 2010 – the bottom on the stock market in March, 2009 – we even recommended Bitcoin Trust last January.
Obviously great money making forecasts, but there is one prediction made in the fall of 2012 and repeated at every subsequent conference that is more important than all the others. I’m talking about forecasting the huge up-move in the US dollar and the accompanying weakness in the loonie. I say more important not just because you could have exchanged the Canadian dollar for the greenback, put it under the mattress and made 30%, but for three other significant reasons.
- A strong US dollar means money is coming into the US from all over the world, which is a significant factor in propelling the stock market to record highs.
- Any sustained recovery in the devastated commodity market, especially gold, is next to impossible with a strong US dollar.
- Trillions in US dollar denominated debt issued by foreign governments would be much closer to default with the increased strength in the greenback.
There are other reasons because the US dollar is the world’s reserve currency but let me get to what’s going on today.
My Big Question
Is the current weakness in the US dollar indicating the major trend has changed, bringing the greenback inexorably lower over time? Because if the major trend has changed all of us have to act because it reverses the major investment moves of the last six years.
A weaker dollar would mean higher commodity prices. It would probably result in lower bond prices as money leaves the US. Stocks would go down on the short term as money leaves the States. It would mean the price of all US real estate holdings would drop in Canadian dollar terms, which may be of big interest to investors with properties in Palm Springs, Phoenix and Florida.
I’ve always said – if there is only one thing to get right in investing – it is the direction of the US dollar. So not a big surprise that I want to know if the major trend has changed and the US dollar is about to go down OR if this is simply a correction and a chance to exchange more money into US dollar while the loonie’s up.
The good news is that we’ve got some of the top analysts in the world at the conference to help with the answer. Jack Crooks, well known currency expert will join James Thorne, billionaire money manager and Martin Armstrong, who’s been called the top forecast in the world.
Great people to have in your corner, and as I said, the answer is essential for your financial well being.
Of course, there are lots of other reasons to attend the conference. Josef Schachter is hosting a special program on oil and gas. Josef correctly predicted the recent rise in oil and gas stocks and we’ll get a chance to find out what he thinks now. Should we take profits or take bigger positions?
Ryan Irvine will give his World Outlook Small Cap Portfolio, which has returned double digits every year – although that’s no guarantee of future success – but I like our odds. I’m really looking forward to getting the latest from Mark Leibovit on the marijuana sector, given he was the first one to recommend it nearly 4 years ago. And for the first time, BT Global’s Paul Beatty is coming and I guarantee that when he recommends a stock I’ll be taking notes.
I appreciate that spending Friday and Saturday at the World Outlook Conference is not everyone’s cup of tea – maybe you have shopping to do or TV to watch – but I guarantee you’ll be missing out. Big things are happening that we can’t afford to ignore – at least if our financial future is important.
We have only 61 seats left – so don’t hesitate. Your financial future is worth it. And please come up and say hi at the conference.
Sincerely,
Mike
PS To get tickets or a subscription to the archive video click on the link below.
