Todd Market Forecast for Monday July 20, 2015

Posted by Courtesy of Stephen Todd - Todd Market Forecast

Share on Facebook

Tweet on Twitter

589dc220-975d-48e7-9077-0752eef34de2

Available Mon- Friday after 6:00 P.M. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific.

DOW                                               + 14 on 1,100 net declines

NASDAQ COMP                                + 9 on 1,050 net declines

SHORT TERM TREND                        Bullish  

INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND            Bullish

STOCKS: The averages were higher on Monday. Better than expected earnings reports and a receding crisis with Greece got the credit.

But, for the second session in a row, the markets rallied on poor internals. This normally is not a good sign, especially when you consider that the S&P 500 is at a resistance zone. See the chart below.

GOLD:  Gold was clobbered for $35. Rumors about Chinese bank selling. Greenback up again.    

NEXT DAY: Tuesday. No prediction

CHART:  The S&P 500 is fast approaching the peak of mid may, but the advance decline line is nowhere close (arrows). Also, the last two days have been atrocious. This doesn’t guarantee a decline, especially since earnings have been pretty good, but it makes us want to take profits on our trading profits.

589dc220-975d-48e7-9077-0752eef34de2

BOTTOM LINE:  (Trading)

Our intermediate term system is on a buy. We are long the SPY from  206.42. If there are more declines than advances at 3:45 EST, sell at the close.

   System 7   We sold the SSO at 68.66 for a gain of 2.96. Stay in cash on Tuesday.                           

   System 8   We are in cash. Stay there.                    

GOLD  We are in cash. Stay there.     

News and fundamentals:  There were no important economic releases on Monday and there will be none on Tuesday.

Interesting Stuff  Gold and silver keep getting clobbered. Gold has been declining for 4 years. Silver even more. But, we still see TV advertisements urging people to buy gold and silver. When these ads stop, perhaps we’ll get a bottom.

TORONTO EXCHAN GE:   Toronto got clobbered for 217 points.     

S&P/TSX VENTURE COMP: The TSX dropped 12.       

BONDS:  Bonds fell back slightly.                                                        

THE REST:  The dollar keeps moving higher. Silver  and crude oil were whacked pretty hard.              

We’re on a buy for bonds as of June 11.                      

We’re on a buy for the dollar and a sell for the euro as of July 16.                         

We’re on a sell for gold as of  July 2.                         

We’re on a sell for silver as of June 23.                        

We’re on a sell for crude oil as of July 16.                             

We’re on a sell for the Toronto Stock Exchange as of May 6.    

We’re on a sell for the S&P\TSX Venture Fund as of October 30, 2014.    

We are on a long term buy signal for the markets of the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany and France.  

Fri.

Mon.

Tue.

Wed.

Thu.

Fri.

Mon.

Evaluation

5 day RSI S&P 500

54

66

70

69

76

77

85

5 day RSI NASDAQ

58

68

72

70

79

84

78

McCl-

lAN OSC.

+41

+110

+140

+95

+148

+82

+20

0

Composite Gauge

7

3

7

10

6

11

12

0

Comp. Gauge, 5 day m.a.

11.6

9.6

9.4

8.0

6.6

7.4

9.2

0

CBOE Put Call Ratio

1.00

.57

.97

.96

.88

.84

.91

0

VIX

16.83

13.90

13.37

13.23

12.11

11.95

12.25

VIX % change

-16

-17

– 4

-1

– 8

-1

+3

0

VIX % change 5 day m.a.

-2.8

– 6.4

-6.2

-7.2

-9.2

-6.2

-2.2

0

Adv – Dec 3 day m.a.

+113

+1233

+1322

+547

+476

-116

-275

 0

Supply Demand 5 day m.a.

.48

.57

.54

.61

.80

.78

.69

0

Trading Index (TRIN)

.88

.60

.73

1.28

1.23

1.32

1.12

 0

S&P 500

2077

2100

2109

2107

2124

2127

2128

Plurality -3