Available Mon- Friday after 6:00 P.M. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific.

                 

DOW                                                  + 369 on 2400 net advances

 

NASDAQ COMP                                    + 115 on 1500 net advances

 

SHORT TERM TREND                            Bullish

 

INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND                Bullish

 

STOCKS : Today was important. We needed to see a follow through to yesterday’s gonzo rally and indeed, we did see that follow through.

 

It would have been nice from a trade execution standpoint if the follow through had been a bit less robust, but the market doesn’t like to let you in on your own terms.

 

We wouldn’t be surprised by a pullback on Friday, but we should work our way higher. This market isn’t close to being overbought except for the S&P 500 RSI.

 

GOLD:  Gold rose $1. Not much to say here.  

 

CHART:  We frequently see high volumes at significant turning points, especially bottoms. Do these two events look familiar?

 

 

 

Our intermediate term system is back on a buy as of August 26. We bought the SPY at 199.42.   

   System 7   We bought the SSO at 59.91. It’s too bad that this was the high of the session. We may have to endure some pull back.

  System 8   We are in cash. Stay there.                    

GOLD  We are in cash. Stay there.     

 

News and fundamentals: Q2 GDP came in at 3.7%, better than the expected rise of 3.2%. Jobless claims were 271,000, in line with expectations. Pending home sales rose 0.5%, less than the consensus rise of 1.0%. On Friday we get personal income and consumer sentiment.

 

Interesting Stuff    “I am enclosing two tickets to the first night of my new play; bring a friend, if you have one.”
– George Bernard Shaw to Winston Churchill 

“Cannot possibly attend first night, will attend second …. if there is one.”- Winston Churchill, in response

 

TORONTO EXCHANGE:   Toronto was up 385.         

S&P/TSX VENTURE COMP: The TSX was up 16         

BONDS:  Bonds had a decent rebound.                                                                              

THE REST:  The dollar was again higher. Silver bounced. Crude oil surged on the idea that the economy was getting better here and in China and that this would cause more oil usage.                                 

 

Bonds — Bearish since August 26.                        

 

U.S. dollar — Bullish since August 26.                            

 

Euro — Bearish since August 26.

 

Gold —-Bearish since August 26.                            

 

Silver—- Bearish since August 26.                          

 

Crude oil —- Move to bullish as of today August 27.                              

 

Toronto Stock Exchange—- Move to bullish as of today August 27.    

 

S&P\ TSX Venture Fund — Move to bullish as of today August 27.    

 

We are on a long term buy signal for the markets of the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany and France.

 

toddmarketforecast@charter.net   

 INDICATOR PARAMETERS

     Monetary conditions (+2 means the Fed is actively dropping rates; +1 means a bias toward easing. 0 means neutral, -1 means a bias toward tightening, -2 means actively raising rates). RSI (30 or below is oversold, 80 or above is overbought). McClellan Oscillator ( minus 100 is oversold. Plus 100 is overbought). Composite Gauge (5 or below is negative, 13 or above is positive). Composite Gauge five day m.a. (8.0 or below is overbought. 13.0 or above is oversold). CBOE Put Call Ratio ( .80 or below is a negative. 1.00 or above is a positive). Volatility Index, VIX (low teens bearish, high twenties bullish), VIX % single day change. + 5 or greater bullish. -5 or less, bearish. VIX % change 5 day m.a. +3.0 or above bullish, -3.0 or below, bearish. Advances minus declines three day m.a.( +500 is bearish. – 500 is bullish). Supply Demand 5 day m.a. (.45 or below is a positive. .80 or above is a negative). Trading Index (TRIN) 1.40 or above bullish. No level for bearish.

      No guarantees are made. Traders can and do lose money. The publisher may take positions in recommended securities.