Todd Market Forecast for 3:00 pm PST Tuesday November 14, 2017.
DOW – 30 on 725 net declines
NASDAQ COMP – 20 on 382 net declines
SHORT TERM TREND Bullish
INTERMEDIATE TERM Bullish
STOCKS: The weight of the evidence suggests a market that should move higher, but it’s being suppressed by the lack of progress on at tax reform plan. More revelations about Senate candidate Roy Moore are also contributing to the uncertainty. As you know, the market hates uncertainty.
One specific factor leading the market lower was a drop in commodities such as crude oil
GOLD: Gold was down in the early going, but came back to up by $2.
That is normally a bullish pattern.
CHART: We have been showing the put call ratio and noting that it shows sufficient bearishness to support a multi day rally. Here’s another measure of sentiment. It comes to us courtesy of Tom McClellan of McClellan Financial Publications.
It is the NAAIM Exposure Index and measures the overall market exposure of money managers. Right now it’s under 60%, which shows a lot of bearishness.
BOTTOM LINE: (Trading)
Our intermediate term system is on a buy.
System 7 We are long the SSO at 102.50. Stay with it on Wednesday.
System 8 We are in cash. Stay there for now.
System 9 We are in cash.
NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS: The PPI final demand rose 0.4%, above the expected rise of 0.1%. On Wednesday we get the CPI, retail sales, oil inventories and the Empire State Mfg. Index.
INTERESTING STUFF: “A lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get its pants on.”—– Sir Winston Churchill (1874-1965)
TORONTO EXCHANGE: Toronto got whacked for 113.
BONDS: The bond market moved solidly higher.
THE REST: The dollar was sharply lower. Crude oil took a solid hit.
Bonds –Change to bullish as of November 14.
U.S. dollar – Bullish as of October 20.
Euro — Bullish as of October 10.
Gold —-Bullish as of November 1.
Silver—- Bullish as of November 1.
Crude oil —-Change to bearish as of November 14.
Toronto Stock Exchange—- Bullish as of September 20, 2017.
We are on a long term buy signal for the markets of the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany and France.
Monetary conditions (+2 means the Fed is actively dropping rates; +1 means a bias toward easing. 0 means neutral, -1 means a bias toward tightening, -2 means actively raising rates). RSI (30 or below is oversold, 80 or above is overbought). McClellan Oscillator ( minus 100 is oversold. Plus 100 is overbought). Composite Gauge (5 or below is negative, 13 or above is positive). Composite Gauge five day m.a. (8.0 or below is overbought. 13.0 or above is oversold). CBOE Put Call Ratio ( .80 or below is a negative. 1.00 or above is a positive). Volatility Index, VIX (low teens bearish, high twenties bullish), VIX % single day change. + 5 or greater bullish. -5 or less, bearish. VIX % change 5 day m.a. +3.0 or above bullish, -3.0 or below, bearish. Advances minus declines three day m.a.( +500 is bearish. – 500 is bullish). Supply Demand 5 day m.a. (.45 or below is a positive. .80 or above is a negative). Trading Index (TRIN) 1.40 or above bullish. No level for bearish.
No guarantees are made. Traders can and do lose money. The publisher may take positions in recommended securities.
