Todd Market Forecast: Stk Mkt Trying To Stabilize

Posted by Steven Todd - Todd Market Forecast

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Todd Market Forecast for Wednesday February 5, 2014

Available Mon- Friday after 6:00 P.M. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific.

DOW                                         -5 on 550 net declines

NASDAQ COMP                           -20 on 1050 net declines

SHORT TERM TREND                   Bearish

INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND        Bearish

STOCKS:  The market is trying to stabilize.  It’s too soon to see if it will be successful. It’s our opinion that short term rallies notwithstanding, the market has lower to go.

But, some indicators are significantly oversold. Check the chart out below.

GOLD:  Gold was up $6.

CHART

: The VIX or fear index, as we like to call it, has moved up to levels that have preceded prior tradable rallies. We’ll have to keep ourselves alert here, but one word of warning. This took place during a major uptrend. If the main trend has now turned down, the VIX will have to move much higher to find a significant low. 
 
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TORONTO EXCHANGE:    Toronto was up 55.                             

S&P\TSX Venture Comp: The Venture Comp gave back 5.                                                                 

BONDS: Bonds were down sharply.                                                                                                                                 

THE REST: The dollar was lower. Silver, crude oil and copper were higher again.

BOTTOM LINE:  

Our intermediate term systems are on a sell signal as of January 13.   

System 7  We are in cash. Stay there on Wednesday.                  

System 8   We bought the SSO at 91.60. Sell at Thursday’s close if there are more declining issues than advancing ones at 3:45 EST.     

NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS: 

The ADP employment report showed an increase of  175.,000 private sector jobs. The ISM non mfg. number came in at 54.0, better than the expected 53.9. On Thursday we get the trade deficit and jobless claims.

…………..

We’re moving back to a sell for bonds as of today February 5.

We’re on a buy on the dollar and a sell for the euro as of December 19.                               

We’re on a buy for gold as of January 23.        

We’re on a buy for silver as of December 10.             

We’re on a buy for crude oil as of January 15.               

We’re on a sell for copper as of  January 9.                   

We’re on a buy for the Toronto Stock Exchange as of  today December 26.           

We’re on a buy for the S&P\TSX Venture Comp. as of December 31.   

 We are long term bullish for all major world markets, including those of the U.S., Britain, Canada, Germany, France and Japan.  

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INDICATOR PARAMETERS

Monetary conditions (+2 means the Fed is actively dropping rates; +1 means a bias toward easing. 0 means neutral, -1 means a bias toward tightening, -2 means actively raising rates). RSI (30 or below is oversold, 80 or above is overbought). McClellan Oscillator ( minus 100 is oversold. Plus 100 is overbought). Composite Gauge (5 or below is negative, 13 or above is positive). Composite Gauge five day m.a. (8.0 or below is overbought. 13.0 or above is oversold). CBOE Put Call Ratio ( Below .80 is a negative. Above 1.00 is a positive). Volatility Index, VIX (low teens bearish, high twenties bullish), VIX % single day change. + 5 or greater bullish. -5 or less, bearish. VIX % change 5 day m.a. +3.0 or above bullish, -3.0 or below, bearish. Advances minus declines three day m.a.( +500 is bearish. – 500 is bullish). Supply Demand 5 day m.a. (.45 or below is a positive. .80 or above is a negative).

      No guarantees are made. Traders can and do lose money. The publisher may take positions in recommended securities.