Available Mon- Friday after 6:00 P.M. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific.
DOW + 34 on 200 net advances
NASDAQ COMP – 25 on 600 net declines
SHORT TERM TREND Bullish
INTERMEDIATE TERM Bullish
STOCKS: A rise in oil helped oil stocks and that pushed the Dow to another record high. The rest of the market wasn’t as strong. A weak high tech sector pulled down the NASDAQ.
We are encouraged by some of the comments we’re hearing from the financial talking heads. Many are saying the that market is getting ahead of itself. That’s not the kind of sentiment one tends to hear at significant tops.
GOLD: Gold jumped $17. There seems to be less worry about rate increases and more about global discord. A dropping dollar was also cited.
CHART The Trading Index (TRIN) was above 1.50 at the close (arrow). When it’s this high, the next couple of days tend to be higher. If you’re unfamiliar with TRIN, check the brochure in your introductory material.
BOTTOM LINE: (Trading)
Our intermediate term system is on a buy.
System 7 We are in cash. Stay there for now.
System 8 We are in cash. Stay there for now.
NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS: Jobless claims were 244,000, in line with expectations. Oil inventories rose 600,000 barrels. Last week they rose 9.5 million. On Friday we get new home sales and consumer sentiment.
INTERESTING STUFF: Although the world is full of suffering, it is also full of the overcoming of it. ——— Helen Keller
TORONTO EXCHANGE: Toronto was down another 49.
BONDS: Bonds had a nice upward surge.
THE REST: The dollar down. Silver was up sharply. Crude oil had a nice bounce upon finding that OPEC members were largely keeping their promises to cut production.
Bonds –Bullish as of Feb. 6.
U.S. dollar -Bullish as of Feb. 9.
Euro — Bullish as of December 2.
Gold —-Bullish as of Feb. 16.
Silver—- Bullish as of Jan. 31.
Crude oil —- Bearish as of Nov. 29.
Toronto Stock Exchange—- Bullish from January 22, 2016
We are on a long term buy signal for the markets of the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany and France.
|
|
Wed. |
Thu. |
Fri. |
Tue. |
Wed. |
Thu. |
Evaluation |
|
Monetary conditions |
-1 |
-1 |
-1 |
-1 |
-1 |
-1 |
0 |
|
5 day RSI S&P 500 |
94 |
89 |
90 |
93 |
86 |
87 |
– |
|
5 day RSI NASDAQ |
95 |
91 |
93 |
95 |
89 |
67 |
0 |
|
McCl- lAN OSC. |
+65 |
+26 |
-3 |
+49 |
+12 |
+11 |
0
|
|
Composite Gauge |
9 |
10 |
8 |
6 |
8 |
10 |
0 |
|
Comp. Gauge, 5 day m.a. |
7.2 |
7.8 |
8.0 |
7.8 |
8.2 |
8.4 |
0 |
|
CBOE Put Call Ratio |
.83 |
.89 |
.95 |
.82 |
.89 |
.83 |
0 |
|
VIX |
11.97 |
11.76 |
11.49 |
11.57 |
11.74 |
11.71 |
|
|
VIX % change |
+11 |
-2 |
-2 |
+1 |
+1 |
0 |
0 |
|
VIX % change 5 day m.a. |
+1.0 |
+1.6 |
+1.2 |
+1.0 |
+1.8 |
-0.4 |
0 |
|
Adv – Dec 3 day m.a. |
+294 |
+21 |
-96 |
+175 |
+191 |
+354 |
0 |
|
Supply Demand 5 day m.a. |
.85 |
.82 |
.84 |
.89 |
.86 |
.78 |
0 |
|
Trading Index (TRIN) |
.84 |
1.29 |
.86 |
.66 |
1.38 |
1.52 |
0
|
|
S&P 500
|
2349 |
2347 |
2351 |
2365 |
2363 |
2366 |
Plurality -1 |
Monetary conditions (+2 means the Fed is actively dropping rates; +1 means a bias toward easing. 0 means neutral, -1 means a bias toward tightening, -2 means actively raising rates). RSI (30 or below is oversold, 80 or above is overbought). McClellan Oscillator ( minus 100 is oversold. Plus 100 is overbought). Composite Gauge (5 or below is negative, 13 or above is positive). Composite Gauge five day m.a. (8.0 or below is overbought. 13.0 or above is oversold). CBOE Put Call Ratio ( .80 or below is a negative. 1.00 or above is a positive). Volatility Index, VIX (low teens bearish, high twenties bullish), VIX % single day change. + 5 or greater bullish. -5 or less, bearish. VIX % change 5 day m.a. +3.0 or above bullish, -3.0 or below, bearish. Advances minus declines three day m.a.( +500 is bearish. – 500 is bullish). Supply Demand 5 day m.a. (.45 or below is a positive. .80 or above is a negative). Trading Index (TRIN) 1.40 or above bullish. No level for bearish.
No guarantees are made. Traders can and do lose money. The publisher may take positions in recommended securities.
