3:00 Pacific. Monday September 18, 2017
DOW + 63 on 384 net advances
NASDAQ COMP + 6 on 623 net advances
SHORT TERM TREND Bullish
INTERMEDIATE TERM Bullish
STOCKS: There is not a lot to analyze about the action on Monday. We thought it might pull back a bit as a reaction to the quadruple expiration on Friday, but no such luck.
There seems to be a group of institutional investors who have missed this rally and they are in a bit of a panic mode. They feel the need to buy every dip no matter how minor. Today for instance, the S&P 500 actually went negative late in the session, but it was bought.
On a fundamental basis, there is anticipation that the recent hurricanes are going to spur buying and repair work, thus increasing corporate profits in companies like Home Depot.
GOLD: Gold was down $14. The Wall Street Journal online attributed it to strength in the greenback. I’m not sure about this. The dollar wasn’t all that strong.
CHART: Sometimes analysts can over think the markets. They forget the “ultimate indicator”. And what is that? Price itself. Just look at the chart. Is that an uptrend? It surely looks like it to me and it has been going on for almost a year. Yes, it’s overbought, but in a bull market, it can stay that way for an extended period.
BOTTOM LINE: (Trading)
Our intermediate term system is on a buy.
System 7 We are in cash. Stay there for now.
System 8 We are in cash. Stay there for now.
System 9 We are in cash.
NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS: The Housing market index came in at 64, lower than the expected 66. On Tuesday we get housing starts.
INTERESTING STUFF: Happiness is a choice that requires effort at times.—— Aeschylus
TORONTO EXCHANGE: Toronto was up 64.
BONDS: Bonds resumed their decline.
THE REST: The dollar had a minor bounce. Crude oil was down slightly.
Bonds –Bearish as of September 11.
U.S. dollar – Bullish as of September 13.
Euro — Bearish as of September 13.
Gold —-Bearish as of Sept. 11.
Silver—- Bearish as of Sept. 11.
Crude oil —-Bullish as of September 13.
Toronto Stock Exchange—- Bearish as of June 14, 2017.
We are on a long term buy signal for the markets of the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany and France.
Monetary conditions (+2 means the Fed is actively dropping rates; +1 means a bias toward easing. 0 means neutral, -1 means a bias toward tightening, -2 means actively raising rates). RSI (30 or below is oversold, 80 or above is overbought). McClellan Oscillator ( minus 100 is oversold. Plus 100 is overbought). Composite Gauge (5 or below is negative, 13 or above is positive). Composite Gauge five day m.a. (8.0 or below is overbought. 13.0 or above is oversold). CBOE Put Call Ratio ( .80 or below is a negative. 1.00 or above is a positive). Volatility Index, VIX (low teens bearish, high twenties bullish), VIX % single day change. + 5 or greater bullish. -5 or less, bearish. VIX % change 5 day m.a. +3.0 or above bullish, -3.0 or below, bearish. Advances minus declines three day m.a.( +500 is bearish. – 500 is bullish). Supply Demand 5 day m.a. (.45 or below is a positive. .80 or above is a negative). Trading Index (TRIN) 1.40 or above bullish. No level for bearish.
No guarantees are made. Traders can and do lose money. The publisher may take positions in recommended securities.
