Will President-elect Donald Trump deliver on his campaign promises to dig in with an anti-globalization stance and potentially start one or more trade wars?

I have no doubt that he will follow through on this promise. He was clear about one goal throughout his campaign: Getting much tougher on trade relations.

The president-elect has talked up a range of aggressive actions, including:

– Labeling China a currency manipulator …

– Slapping tariffs on goods imported from China and Mexico …

– And renegotiating or walking away from trade deals like the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) deal that President Obama was pushing.

If President-elect Trump delivers on the protectionist measures he pitched during his campaign, investors can expect increased market volatility, especially in bonds. In fact, it’s already started.

This week alone, global bond investors have seen more than $1 trillion in value wiped out. My view: It’s the start of the sovereign debt crisis as foreign governments and central banks — worried about trade — send a message to Washington. So if Mr. Trump carries through with renegotiating trade deals or slapping tariffs on goods, guess what?

Our U.S. Treasury note and bond market will get clobbered, interest rates will soar, compounding the interest on our country’s gargantuan debts … and …

As I’ve been saying, the piper will inevitably and finally get paid.

Washington will go bankrupt, right along with the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is stuck with more than $4.5 trillion of U.S. notes and bonds.

The fact is my cycles and AI models warned of a sovereign bond crisis long before Mr. Trump even decided to run for president. We were heading down this path no matter who became our next Commander in Chief.

Best wishes,

Larry

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com